Climate Change Risks & Impacts for Dairy Industry
Victorian dairy farmers have long dealt with a variable and changing climate, however the last 13 years have seen a prolonged dry period "unprecedented" in the long term historical rainfall records. Within this period there has been widespread and severe droughts as well prolonged periods of hot or very hot weather.
While inherent climate variability accounts for some of this, that the climate is changing due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is unequivocal (Garnaut). Associated with this will be higher temperatures, and the strong likelihood of decreased overall rainfall and more variable rainfall patterns and more extreme events such as prolonged periods of hot or very hot weather, or flooding rains.
Climate change will present a range of challenges for dairy farmers as it could impact upon their water resources, pasture growth and the availability of bought in feedstocks and herd performance.
The DPI Climate webpage and Dairy Australia Climate Toolkit can provide more detailed information.
How will climate change affect my area?
The future farming conditions in Victoria will depend upon the levels at which the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases stabilise, however indications are that it will be warmer and rainfall will be less predictable for much of Victoria.
Detailed information for the potential changes to temperatures and rainfall for a number of locations around Victoria are available.
Climate change for dairying regions of Victoria and South Australia
What risks does climate change have for the dairy industry?
Climate change poses a range of direct and indirect risks for dairy farmers, and these can occur at farm, regional, national and global levels.
Amongst the key challenges for pasture based dairy farmers is to manage day to day pasture production, exposure to the supplementary feed market and cash flow. Changes to the long term rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures could pose direct challenges to these aspects of the farming business.
Climate change may enhance conditions for dairying and grains in some regions of Australia and allow them to increase production, while growing conditions in Victoria could decline.
The majority of dairy production in Victoria is sold for export and this can pose a number of indirect climate change related risks due to international trade agreements and competition from other dairy producing nations. Global supply and demand of dairy products drives dairy product prices and hence returns to dairy farmers. Similarly, global supply and demand of inputs such as grain and fertilisers effects input costs for dairy farmers.
How will this affect me as dairy farmer?
Direct Impacts
Some of the direct impacts for dairy farmers associated with the risks of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures are;
- possible reductions in pasture production due decreased rainfall or a more variable distribution of rain
- decreased persistence of perennial (rye grass) pastures due to longer, hotter summers.
- it may be more difficult to establish new pastures and / or produce a feed wedge prior to Winter.
- earlier drying off of pastures in Spring
- reduced runoff to provide streamflow and fill dams, or recharge to replenish groundwater aquifers.
- increased incidence and severity of heat stress on stock
- increased risks associated with supply and costs of bought in supplementary feeds. Hay, silage and grains, are produced in drier areas with a greater exposure to the risks posed by climate change than the higher rainfall dairying areas.
Is there any upside?
- Declining Winter rainfall could potentially reduce waterlogging, resulting in enhanced winter growth. However this may be offset by declining Spring rainfall, and prolonged dry periods in the Spring impacting upon the Spring “flush”.
- Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide can enhance pasture growth, but this would be offset by a reduction in protein levels. There is also a possible reduction in overall growth due to changed rainfall patterns or decreased rainfall at important times (ie Spring).
Any potential upside is more than likely out-weighed by the impacts associated with the downside. Inevitably this means that there will be a greater variability in both income and input costs, and make it more challenging to manage and maintain cash flow and farm profitability.
Read more information specific to the dairy industry
Indirect Impacts
Global trade agreements / carbon footprinting
Although Australia has not committed to any global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, some countries that purchase our dairy products are already requesting carbon footprint information. Future market negotiations may also include the demonstration of sustainable emissions associated with the production of those products. As such dairy farmers may need to demonstrate that they can produce their milk with comparable or less ghg emissions than those in other countries.
