| Coupled GCM’s | Ensembles | Statistical | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| System 3 ECMWF Europe |
POAMA2 BoM Australia |
SINTEX JAMSTEC Japan |
CFS03 NCEP USA |
GSM ECPC USA |
UKMO UK |
IRI USA |
APCC Korea |
BoM Seasonal Forecast |
QDNRM Qld Australia |
ESS DAF WA |
|
| Month of Run Forecast months |
Sept |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
Sept SON |
| Spring Pacific Ocean NINO3.4 |
Slightly cool | Cool (weak La Nina) |
Cool (weak La Nina) |
Slightly cool | Slightly cool | Slightly cool | |||||
| Spring Eastern Indian Ocean |
Neutral | Slightly cool (weak IOD+) |
Neutral (weak IOD+) |
Neutral | Neutral (IOD+) |
Neutral | |||||
| Spring Rainfall |
Slightly wetter? | Average | Slightly wetter? | Average | Average | Average | Neutral W, Slightly wetter E |
Average | Average, slightly drier SW |
Average | Average S, slightly wetter N |
| Spring Temperature | Slightly warmer? | Average | Average W, slightly cooler E |
Average, slightly warmer E Gipps |
Average W, slightly warmer E |
Slightly warmer | Neutral W, slightly warmer E |
Slightly warmer | Warmer | ||
| Forecast Months | JFM | DJF | DJF | JFM | JFM | DJF | JFM | ||||
| Summer Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 |
Slightly cool | Cool (weak La Nina) |
Cool (La Nina) |
Cool (La Nina) |
Cool (weak La Nina) |
Slightly cool | |||||
| Summer Eastern Indian Ocean |
Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | ||||
| Summer Rainfall | Average W?, slightly wetter E? |
Average, slightly wetter E Gipps, NE |
Average W, slightly wetter E |
Average W, slightly wetter E |
Average W, wetter E |
Average | Average | ||||
| Summer Temperature |
Slightly warmer? | Average | Average W, slightly cooler E |
Average | Average | Average, slightly warmer SW |
Average | ||||
| Comments | Victoria doesn’t feature on their map of the world! |
Experimental | Experimental | Experimental summary for 20 CGC models. |
Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall |
5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI |
David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST. |
||||
| Web Address | http://www.ecmwf.int/ products/forecasts/d/ charts/seasonal/ forecast/ |
http://poama.bom. gov.au/experimental/ poama15/ rs_map.htm |
http://www.jamstec. go.jp/frcgc/research/ d1/iod/ |
http://www.cpc.ncep. noaa.gov/products/ people/wwang/ cfs_fcst/ |
http://ecpc.ucsd. edu/projects/ GSM_seasons. html |
http://www.metoffi ce. gov.uk/research/ climate/seasonal-todecadal/ gpcoutlooks |
http://portal.iri. columbia.edu/portal/ server.pt?space= Co mmunityPage&contr ol=SetCommunity&C ommunityID=580&P ageID=0 |
http://www.apcc21. org/en/services/ apccoperational- 3-monthmme- prediction/ forecasts/outlook/ |
http://www.bom.gov. au/climate/ahead/ rain_ahead.shtml |
http://www. longpaddock.qld. gov.au |
http://www. agric.wa.gov.au/ content/LWE/ CLI/CLIMATE_ INDEX.htm |
Wetter = increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
Drier = increased chances of drier than average conditions.
Warmer = increased chances of warmer than average conditions.
Cooler = increased chances of cooler than average conditions.
Neutral = the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.