The Fast Break Newsletter: September 2011
Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria
Volume 6/Issue 9 - 26 September 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719
| Seasonal model forecasts for Victoria over the next three months: | |
|---|---|
| Current outlook (September 26) | Past outlook (August 30) |
| PACIFIC OCEAN: Slightly cool/cool INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral (weak IOD positive) RAINFALL: Average/slightly wetter TEMPERATURE: Slightly warmer/average |
PACIFIC OCEAN: Neutral/slightly cool INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral (weak IOD positive) RAINFALL: Average TEMPERATURE: Average/slightly warmer |
30 Day Moving SOI
The SOI is rising, having been weakly positive for September. The latest value is +8.4. If values over +8 can be sustained, it would indicate La Niña like pressure conditions along the equator.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
The Southern Annular Mode has been negative for much of September. Indicating frontal systems could be closer to Victoria.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml
High Pressure over Australia has been centred at a slightly higher position to normal, however, this has been countered by much stronger pressure than normal.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif
The SST anomaly map shows further cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, though not yet at La Niña temperatures. A weak IOD+ has formed off Sumatra. The Coral sea is normal.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
Victoria has seen slightly below average cloud for the past 30 days. Cloud is near normal at the dateline on the equator, indicating neutral conditions.
The large lack of cloud south of the dateline is slowly progressing northwards which would be more in line with La Niña. Northern Australia is slightly more cloudy. A significant decrease in cloud off the island of Sumatra continues from last month.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo
Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 26 September 2011
View table of Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions for 26 September 2011
| Editors | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dale Grey | Cobram DPI | 03 5871 0600 | dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au |
| Chris Sounness | Horsham DPI | 03 5362 2111 | chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au |
| Chris Pittock | Horsham DPI | 03 5362 2111 | chris.pittock@dpi.com.au |
