The Break Newsletter
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 7 September 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-711
This Issue
- State Round Up
- Seasonal Outlook
- A late IOD+ event: big deal or non-event?
- Mallee
- Wimmera
- Northern
- South West/Gippsland
- The Fiver
Breaking out the dictionary
Continuing on from last month where wise people questioned the word normalcy or was it normality? It is time to break out the big guns and expand your vocab.The word of the day is:
Pan-gloss-i-an [pan-glos-ee-uhn, -glaw-see-, pang-] adjective. characterised by, or given to extreme optimism, especially in the face of hardship or adversity.
I feel that this September we are facing a moment (which in hindsight) may be considered panglossian in the context of the previous decade or so.
The crops look great, things are well situated if...
- we get a 20-30mm rain event in the next fortnight.
- we don't get any stinking hot days in the next month.
- we don't get a cracking frost.
- the global finance doesn't collapse and everyone can afford to pay for soft commodities.
- (and my biggest worry is this chance of) the IOD+ stuffing everything.
There are so many things that could get you down if you become panglossian. The way forward is to dose up on reality pills and focus on the things within your control. That way no matter what happens you have a range of scenarios in mind. It probably means don't purchase the new red or green machine yet - wait till after harvest.
Be prepared to change your mind about how each crop is going to be handled depending on the situation.
Spend some time in the next month getting a handle on 2012 and the plans for the farm. Which crops are going in which paddocks, weed issues to tackle next year, maintenance and repairs needed.
Ensure you have locked in a summer holiday, because as L'Oreal says: "you're worth it". And lets hope nothing lollapalooza happens. Oh for some normalcy!
lol-la-pa-loo-za - an extraordinary or unusual thing, person, or event; an exceptional example or instance.
State Round Up-In the paddock
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Mallee: Aug Decile (5-8)
Warm weather pushing crops along. Crops hanging on with subsoil moisture; 2-3 weeks supply. Some transient wilting might occur in warm weather. Warmth and wet weather could promote stem rust so spraying tactics important. Great conditions but up to 40-50mm wouldn't go astray!
Wimmera: Aug Decile (5-6)
Crop condition is still good for the most part although solid rains are definitely needed in the northern Wimmera, particularly with warm weather forecast. Early sown crops are showing signs of tapping into deeper stored moisture, but later sown crops may not have developed sufficient roots to tap moisture at greater depths.
Central and southern Wimmera crops are still looking very good but all areas will need finishing rains: ASAP.
Northern: Aug Decile (5-9)
NE- Most crops looking great. Trafficability improving in the southern regions for operations with canola at mid-late flowering and cereals from Z32 - flag leaf emergence.
NC- Good rain early in the month has been depleted through crop use, warm and dry conditions combined with a couple of frosts. Surface moisture is low. Irrigation-area crops are being irrigated. Really could use some top-up rain to counter the recent warm weekends.
South West Aug Decile (1-3)
SW- Crops drying out now allowing trafficability and operations. Spring sown crops starting to be planted. Crop growth stages variable from Z31-32 to late stem elongation. Canola is at mid flowering.
Gippsland: Aug Decile (7)
Gipps- Most heavy soils were waterlogged and cereals yellowed but trafficability is improving. Lighter soil crops look good. Spring sowing wheat and barley happening now. No reports of rust or insects issues. Interest in summer cropping. Crop growth stage highly variable, early planted canola flowering and cereals at 3rd node. Preventative stem rust fungicides being applied now.
Dam Capacity www.gwmwater.org.au www.g-mwater.com.au
Grampians Wimmera Mallee: 70.6%
Goulburn-Murray:
Dartmouth 70.9%, Hume 98.1%, Eildon 95.7%, Eppalock 99.5%
NSW: Eucumbene 37.8%, Burrinjuck 98%, Menindee 116%
Seasonal Outlook
Summary: Tropical Pacific neutral (14th September)
The central tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled steadily since early winter, but has yet to reach critical thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness and trade winds are also showing a trend towards La Niña values, though they remain well short of the strong La Niña conditions evident at the same time last year.
The majority of dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the central Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to cool in the coming months, but the consensus is split between neutral conditions and cool (La Niña) conditions for late 2011 and early 2012.
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
SOI: Is the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI has remained relatively stable and weakly positive over the last two weeks. The latest (12 Sept) 30-day SOI value is +4.1. Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SST: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled during August, when compared to those for July. The SST anomaly map for August shows cool anomalies along the equator in much of the central equatorial Pacific. A small area of warmer than usual SSTs remains in the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
Sub-surface Sea Temperatures
www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, to August, shows a large area of cool temperature anomalies across the eastern and central Pacific. Anomalies in the central Pacific are more than 3°C cooler than average. The extent of positive anomalies in the western Pacific has continued to decrease during August.
ENSO Forecast Models - POAMA2
http://poama.bom.gov.au/sst.shtml
Steady cooling of the central Pacific Ocean since early winter has increased the chance of La Niña returning during the last quarter of 2011. Current ENSO indicators are approaching values typically associated with La Niña events.
A late IOD positive event: Big deal or non-event?
By Dale Grey, DPI Grains Branch
For a number of months now, a few of the climate computer models have been gunning for an Indian Ocean Dipole positive (IOD+) event this spring. Well its early days, but it seems they were right. This week the conditions just got over the threshold for weak IOD+. Only time will tell how long it hangs around for. The IOD, like the El Niño southern oscillation is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena, meaning a complex interaction between surface and deep ocean temperatures, winds and cloud, but not on the same scale.
The Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is the major measuring stick for the status of the IOD and the OOPC State of the Ocean website plots its recent moves. The DMI is calculated as the difference between the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the east coast of equatorial Kenya and Somalia from those of the islands of Sumatra and Java in Indonesia.
http://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/ind/dmi.php
Alternative indices (using different SST methodologies) from the BoM can be found here, (interestingly both methods have aligned this week)-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml
The DMI needs to have a threshold value of greater than + 0.5 to be considered an IOD+. The current OOPC weekly value of the DMI is +0.57 but has spent three other occasions over +0.5 in the last two months. The DMI shows that weak IOD+ conditions were briefly met in March and April (at a time that has no major effect), it went off the boil in May and June and then started to develop over July and August.
The SST anomalies for these times show fluctuating SST cooling, mainly off the coast of Java (rather than the usual Sumatra) particularly in the last two months.
Wind anomalies in this region show that the easterly winds have been stronger than normal, travelling from Indonesia to Africa, which helps set IOD+ off by pushing warmer water across to Africa and allowing cooler water from below to upwell and replace it. The water available to up-well off Sumatra is cooler than normal at depth. I suspect it's this pool of cooler water that some models had been "seeing", predicting stronger winds would bring some of it to the surface.
For at least the last two months there has been a lack of cloud off Sumatra. Typical of IOD+ events, is this lack of evaporation and cloud over the cooler water. What is unusual is that this lack of cloud seems to have occurred before the water has really cooled. In the terms of recent IOD+ events, this seems strange? It may be coincidence, but the latest Madden Julian Oscillation cloud mass that was moving eastward off the coast of Africa just fizzled out when it got near this low cloud region.
Recent IOD+ history shows that they tend to diminish the sources of rain bearing cloud coming from the north west.
Looking back through Gary Meyers et.al (1997) classification of past IOD events, finding late developing IOD+ events is difficult, 1919 is a candidates and peaked in October-November. In 1919, the experience was a poor spring in most northern Victorian regions. Other late developing IOD+ possibilities got cracking in August, years such as 1991, 1983, 1957, 1926, 1923, 1891. These years show a bit more variability (1891 and 1983 were good) but the other years spring were drier, mainly in northern Victoria and particularly in October.
This IOD+ usually wastes away in late October early November when, the monsoon season starts in the tropics.
In 2007 we experienced the very rare combination of weak IOD+ conditions over winter/spring prior to a late developing La Niña. Time will tell whether "unusual" dials up twice in $ ve years and if the result is similar or different. That stored subsoil moisture is still looking like good insurance.
Mallee: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Mildura | Decile | Ouyen | Decile | Swan Hill | Decile | Birchip | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 129 | 10 | 131 | 10 | 135 | 10 | 181 | 10 |
| Feb | 193 | 10 | 98 | 10 | 46 | 9 | 39 | 9 |
| Mar | 122 | 10 | 37 | 9 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
| Apr | 12 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| May | 13 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 4 |
| June | 10 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| July | 15 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 2 |
| Aug | 20 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 37 | 6 | 51 | 8 |
| Annual | 513 | HR | 373 | 10 | 319 | 9 | 346 | 10 |
| GSR | 70 | 2 | 107 | 3 | 103 | 2 | 108 | 2 |
| Summer | 444 | HR | 266 | HR | 216 | 10 | 238 | 10 |
HR - Highest on Record Decile 10
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use e! ciency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 2/9/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Mildura | Ouyen | Swan Hill | Birchip | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 8 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
Apr-Oct GSR, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap.
PAW=Plant available water
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au
Swan Hill (Sandy Clay Loam)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 110 mm PAW Capacity: 167mm Available Soil N: 85 kg/ha
Wimmera: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Nhill | Decile | Warracknabeal | Decile | Longerenong | Decile | Edenhope | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 107 | 10 | 166 | 10 | 160 | 10 | 110 | 10 |
| Feb | 25 | 7 | 57 | 9 | 69 | 10 | 66 | 10 |
| Mar | 46 | 10 | 38 | 9 | 20 | 6 | 69 | 9 |
| Apr | 10 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 35 | 6 |
| May | 18 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 37 | 4 |
| June | 18 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 47 | 4 |
| July | 39 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 53 | 8 | 75 | 6 |
| Aug | 41 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 45 | 6 | 76 | 6 |
| Annual | 305 | 8 | 387 | 10 | 404 | 10 | 517 | 10 |
| GSR | 127 | 2 | 126 | 2 | 155 | 3 | 271 | 4 |
| Summer | 178 | 10 | 261 | HR | 249 | HR | 245 | 10 |
HR - Highest on Record Decile 10
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 2/9/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Nhill | Warracknabeal | Longerenong | Edenhope | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 80 | 130 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 |
| 5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
| 8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 |
Apr-Oct GSR, 15 kg/ha/mm for Edenhope, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap.
PAW=Plant available water
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au
Longerenong (Murtoa Clay)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 160 mm PAW Capacity: 191 mm Available Soil N: 65 kg/ha
Northern: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Boort | Decile | Elmore | Decile | Tungamah | Decile | Rutherglen | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 203 | 10 | 112 | 10 | 59 | 9 | 72 | 9 |
| Feb | 102 | 10 | 125 | 10 | 144 | 10 | 250 | 10 |
| Mar | 35 | 8 | 53 | 8 | 23 | 5 | 44 | 7 |
| Apr | 18 | 5 | 51 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 4 |
| May | 15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 31 | 4 |
| June | 13 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 27 | 2 |
| July | 52 | 9 | 43 | 5 | 54 | 7 | 61 | 6 |
| Aug | 57 | 9 | 60 | 7 | 42 | 5 | 68 | 6 |
| Annual | 494 | 10 | 467 | 10 | 386 | 7 | 576 | 10 |
| GSR | 154 | 5 | 177 | 4 | 161 | 2 | 211 | 4 |
| Summer | 340 | HR | 290 | 10 | 226 | 10 | 366 | 10 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 2/9/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Boort | Elmore | Tungamah | Rutherglen | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| 5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 |
| 8 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 7.6 | 3.8 |
Apr-Oct GSR, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap.
PAW=Plant available water
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil.
Telford (Sandy clay loam over clay)
Variety: Gregory
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 60mm PAW Capacity: 96mm Available Soil N: 100 kg/ha
South West and Gippsland: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Hamilton | Decile | Willaura | Decile | Lismore | Decile | Winchelsea | Decile | East Sale | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 124 | 10 | 126 | 10 | 146 | 10 | 140 | 10 | 39 | 5 |
| February | 41 | 8 | 42 | 8 | 58 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 97 | 10 |
| March | 78 | 9 | 48 | 9 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 61 | 8 |
| April | 68 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 47 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 50 | 7 |
| May | 45 | 3 | 51 | 6 | 46 | 5 | 36 | 4 | 31 | 5 |
| June | 57 | 4 | 30 | 3 | 41 | 4 | 60 | 8 | 24 | 3 |
| July | 88 | 7 | 49 | 5 | 51 | 5 | 70 | 9 | 70 | 9 |
| Aug | 57 | 3 | 30 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 47 | 7 |
| Annual | 558 | 9 | 412 | 8 | 444 | 8 | 426 | 9 | 419 | 7 |
| GSR | 315 | 4 | 195 | 3 | 213 | 2 | 220 | 4 | 222 | 6 |
| Summer | 243 | 10 | 216 | 10 | 231 | 10 | 206 | 10 | 197 | 9 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 2/9/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Hamilton | Willaura | Lismore | Winchelsea | East Sale | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 140 | 140 | 120 | 100 | 100 | |||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 5 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| 8 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 |
Apr-Nov GSR, wheat 15 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap canola 7 kg/ha/mm
PAW=Plant available water
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and
Lake Bolac (Fine sandy clay loam over heavy clay)
Variety: Bolac
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 120 mm PAW Capacity: 188 mm Available Soil N: 105 kg/ha
The Fiver
By Chris Sounness (DPI, Horsham)
We live in a risky world. I suppose the editorial touches on it but for myself the risk came home to roost last month. I gladly outsourced The Fiver column to Chris Pittock who is doing a great job as co-editor, amongst many things, as part of the team.
However I was horrified when I saw that one of his links identified was to some yankee charlatan claiming to do the impossible!
At the time I felt the The Fiver reputation of providing quality links to the WWW could be ruined. Also that the role of DPI being the honest science broker could be tarnished. Chris quickly and rightly pointed out that the tongue was in the cheek regarding the link and there was no endorsement of the hocus pocus. He just realised the The Fiver readership are full of top of the range critical thinkers...
This ability for critical analysis is the number one skill needed when surfing the web. There is rubbish galore - I am the first to admit - but in amongst the rubbish is some of the highest quality science and knowledge you can come across. The ability to identify the wheat amongst the chaff is the skill of critical analysis that the web demands of the reader when seeking information. Personally I think the web can be a bit too demanding, but so be it!
The first place that I would go to get 'in the mood' and realise critical thinking is needed (but also enjoyable) is the Gruen Transfer website:
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/gruentransfer
The Gruen Transfer is all about creating awareness about how marketers and advertisements manipulate choices we make.
While we dont have a "Gruen does AG" yet there has been much talk about how it could add value, particularly in the way some companies use selective data to illustrate a positive rather than a balanced data set. This can be rife with the use of the NVT data.
Always best to check the source. NVTonline is the go:
http://www.nvtonline.com.au
Another way to access balanced data is to get a copy of the Victorian Winter Crop Summary.
A classic method that marketers may try to use for manipulating a reader is the creation of dodgy graphs. There are a couple of good sources to help understand this. It is all about ensuring that the graph does not show the information out-of-context:
http://www.datavis.ca/gallery/context.php
A campaign has started based on the point that you should always ask for evidence. Never have finer words been said:
http://www.senseaboutscience.org/pages/a4e.html
Finally, ask the hard question and if the person is being dodgy call them on it. Point out the issues with data and the way it is being presented.
| Editors | ||
|---|---|---|
| DPI Horsham Chris Sounness 03 5362 2111 chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au |
DPI Horsham Chris Pittock 03 5362 2111 chris.pittock@dpi.vic.gov.au |
DPI Cobram Dale Grey 03 5871 0600 dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au |
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Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains
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© The State of Victoria, 2011
This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968.
Authorised by the Victorian Government, 1 Spring Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
ISSN 1833-719
Disclaimer
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