|
Coupled GCM’s |
Ensembles |
Statistical |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
System 3 ECMWF Europe |
POAMA2 BoM Australia |
SINTEX JAMSTEC Japan |
CFS03 NCEP USA |
GSM ECPC USA |
UKMO UK |
IRI USA |
APCC Korea |
BoM Seasonal Forecast |
QDNRM Qld Australia |
ESS DAF WA |
|
|
Month of Run |
Oct |
Oct | Oct | Oct | Oct | Oct | Oct | Oct | Oct | Oct | Oct |
|
Forecast months |
NDJ |
NDJ |
DJF |
NDJ | NDJ | NDJ | NDJ | NDJ | NDJ | NDJ | NDJ |
|
Summer Pacific Ocean NINO3.4 |
Cool (La Nina) |
Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (weak La Nina) | Cool (weak La Nina) | ||||
|
Summer Eastern Indian Ocean |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Neutral (IOD+ Nov) |
Slightly warmer |
Slightly cooler |
Neutral |
|||||
|
Summer Rainfall |
Slightly wetter? |
Average W, slightly wetter E |
Slightly wetter N Average S |
Average |
Average |
Average |
Neutral |
Average |
Average |
Average, slightly wetter E Gipps |
Slightly wetter |
|
Summer Temperature |
Slightly warmer? |
Average |
Slightly warmer W, slightly cooler E |
Average |
Warmer W, slightly warmer E |
Slightly cooler, average far east |
Neutral W, slightly warmer E |
Slightly warmer |
Warmer |
||
|
Forecast months |
FMA |
JFM |
MAM |
FMA |
FMA |
JFM |
FMA |
||||
|
Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO3.4 |
Cool (weak La Nina) | Cool (weak La Nina) |
Cool (La Nina) |
Cool (La Nina) |
Cool (La Nina) |
Cool (La Nina) |
Neutral |
||||
|
Autumn Eastern Indian Ocean |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Slightly cooler |
Neutral |
Neutral |
|||||
|
Autumn Rainfall |
Average? |
Average |
Slightly wetter, average far W |
Average W, slightly wetter E |
Average |
Average |
Average |
||||
|
Autumn Temperature |
Average? |
Average |
Slightly cooler, slightly warmer SW |
Average |
Slightly warmer |
Average, slightly cooler far east |
Neutral |
||||
|
Comments |
Victoria doesn't feature on their map of the world! |
Experimental |
Experimental |
Experimental summary for 20 CGC models. |
Comparison between current SST's and historic rainfall |
5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI |
David Stephens and team, NINO 3 SST |
||||
|
Web Address |
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/ |
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/ |
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks |
http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?space= CommunityPage&control=SetCommunity&CommunityID=580&PageID=0 |
http://www.apcc21.org/en/services/apcc-operational-3-month-mme-prediction/forecasts/outlook/ |
http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/content/LWE/CLI/CLIMATE_INDEX.htm |
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Wetter = increased chances of wetter than average conditions. Drier = increased chances of drier than average conditions. Warmer = increased chances of warmer than average conditions.
Cooler = increased chances of cooler than average conditions. Neutral = the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.
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