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The Fast Break Newsletter: October 2011

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 6/Issue 10 28 October 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719

Seasonal model forecasts for Victoria over the next three months

Current outlook (October 28)
 Past outlook (September 26)
PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool (La Nina) PACIFIC OCEAN: Slightly cool/cool
INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral (weak IOD positive)
RAINFALL: Average/slightly wetter RAINFALL: Average/slightly wetter
TEMPERATURE: Slightly warmer/average TEMPERATURE: Slightly warmer/average

30 Day Moving SOI

Graph showing the 30 Day Moving SOI 

The SOI remains positive. The latest value is +8. This indicates that the air pressure conditions along the equator are weakly consistent with La Niña.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

AAO: Observed & GFS Forecasts

Graph showing the southern annular mode from 3 Jul 2011 to 30 Oct 2011.

The Southern Annular Mode has been both negative and positive in October. The SAM has a lesser effect at this time of the year though.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_
index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml

Sea Level Pressure

Graph showing the sea level pressure from 1 Oct 2011 to 30 Oct 2011. 

For the last 30 days High Pressure over Australia has averaged at a close to normal position, however, this has been countered by stronger pressure than normal.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif

SST Anomaly

SST Anomaly map as of 27 October 2011.

The SST anomaly map shows further cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, close to La Niña temperatures. The IOD+ has broken down off Sumatra. The Coral and Timor Seas are warming.

www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

OLR Anomalies: Average of 29 Sep 2011: 29 Oct 2011

Graph showing the OLR Anomalies between 29 Sep 2011 and 29 Oct 2011.

Victoria has seen average Cloud for the past 30 days, but much of Australia is slightly more cloudy. Cloud is decreasing at the dateline on the equator, indicative of La Niña. A significant decrease in cloud off the island of Sumatra consistent with the IOD+, has shown recent signs of improvement.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 28 October 2011

View table of Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions for 28 October 2011

Editors
Dale Grey Cobram DPI 03 5871 0600 dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au
Chris Sounness Horsham DPI 03 5362 2111 chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au
Chris Pittock Horsham DPI 03 5362 2111 chris.pittock@dpi.com.au