The Break Newsletter
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 8 October 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-711
This Issue
- State Round Up
- Seasonal Outlook
- Chalk and Cheese
- Mallee
- Wimmera
- Northern
- South West/Gippsland
- The Fiver
Code Breaker
8-15-23 1-2-15-21-20 1 4-5-3-5-14-20 19-16-18-9-14-7
These numbers say it all -Will 2011 be the year? We are overdue for one.
With the rain last week many are hoping the secret to unlocking the code may have been worked out. However, with two to three nervous months ahead, no one is resting on their laurels. Over the next eight weeks, temperatures probably even more than rainfall, will be the key to a successful harvest. If the wicked warm winds from the north and those clear still nights with a zephyr from the south following a cold front can stay away, then a chance for a half decent harvest can persist. Although, growing the stuff is only half the story. Spending some time over the next month identifying storage and selling strategies will be time well spent.
How much is going to be delivered into the system? How much stored on farm? How much do you need to sell for cash? Do you need to keep the cash flow demons away? Which pool offers terms and conditions that match your way of thinking? How much to warehouse with the big boys? How much business do you do with the smaller players? Do you sell grain to other farmers? and on what terms? Who can provide you the information you want, in the way you like it?
Spending a day or two writing some of this down in the trusty notebook or on the computer and emailing around to your partners and/or staff is time well spent. When harvest comes everyone will be flat out and most people will be listening to the news every hour being trapped in a vehicle for hours on end. They will then become very nervous about the global economic situation as there is unlikely to be a lot of uplifting news in the next six months, therefore a plan written down and the ability to ignore the knee-jerk is what is needed this harvest.
To crack the code remember its as easy as 1 2 3 or was that A B C?
State Round Up-In the paddock
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Approaching storm west of Murrayville (P.Hamence) |
Mallee: Sept Decile (2-5)
Some pasture (mostly vetch) hay on the ground with smaller amounts of frosted cereals also windrowed. Mice and rust are still sleepers and a close eye is being kept on these. Crops overall are looking great and this recent rain event was perfectly timed. The 7-30mm (average 10-15mm) across the Mallee will add yield and maintain grain quality.
Wimmera: Sept Decile (1-2)
Need rain, now, please! Potential remains for early sown crops, but later sown crops are showing stress. Cereal heads emerging. Stored soil moisture has served its purpose well but there isn't a lot left in the tank. Recent rain won't last long. Will need a pretty good finish to pick things up north of Horsham.
Northern: Sept Decile (5-9)
NE- Crops looking great. Most crops at head emergence and flowering soon. Canola finished flowering in the heat. No major damage done by the dry September but the rain was very welcome. Some minor frost damage on the few early sown crops (<5% loss).
NC- The dry September led to early irrigating, dryland crops were also stressed. Good rain has refreshed all the crops and most don't appear to have suffered any yield loss, however late sown crops on heavy soils are unlikely to yield well.
South West Sept Decile (1-5)
Moisture conditions were drying out, some areas were good, some were dry. Recent rain has refreshed the topsoil. Plenty of spring sowing completed. Early sown crops at flag leaf emergence. Canola in full flower. Nitrogen topdressing and fungicide applications are in full swing.
Gippsland: Sept Decile (7)
Crops are looking good. Some crops have yield reducing weed loads and nitrogen deficiency both from waterlogging and late N timing. Poor root development in these crops is an issue. Recent rain has refreshed dry topsoil. Most cereals are from late stem elongation to start of ear emergence, and canola from mid to late flowering. Diseases are present, but controls are working well.
Dam Capacities www.gwmwater.org.au www.g-mwater.com.au
Grampians Wimmera Mallee: 70.5%
Goulburn-Murray: Dartmouth 72.8%, Hume 98.8%, Eildon 98.7%, Eppalock 101%
NSW: Eucumbene 44.8%, Burrinjuck 99%, Menindee 110%
Seasonal Outlook
Summary: Odds firm for a La Niña in 2011 (28th September) www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso
The continuing cooling trend in the central Pacific Ocean since early winter is consistent with a developing La Niña event. The majority of leading climate models predict current patterns and trends will continue, with further cooling beyond La Niña thresholds during the last quarter of 2011. Atmospheric indicators are also trending towards typical La Niña values. If a La Niña does form, current indicators are that it will be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event. La Niña events raise the odds of above average rainfall across the north and east of the country, but don't guarantee it.
The latest observations from the Indian Ocean show a positive dipole event. Typically peaking in spring, a positive dipole event increases the odds of dry conditions over south eastern and central Australia. In other words, this is providing a degree of counter influence on rainfall to the La Niña development in the Pacific.
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
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http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso
SOI: Is the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.
The SOI made a run in the last two weeks and has just stalled again. The latest (7 Oct) 30-day SOI value is +10. If a value over +8 can be sustained, this would be indicative of a La Niña event in terms of the atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
SST: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
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http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean didn't alter much during September but have recently cooled further. Temperatures are not yet at La Niña thresholds. An IOD+ event exists off Indonesia, but shows some signs of weakening in the last seven days. The Coral Sea is slowly warming.
Sub-surface Sea Temperatures
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www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, to September, shows a large area of cool temperature anomalies across the eastern and central Pacific. Anomalies in the central Pacific are more than 4 °C cooler than average.
ENSO Forecast Models - POAMA2
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http://poama.bom.gov.au/sst.shtml
The ocean temperature at NINO3.4 is predicted to go across the La Niña threshold this month and return to neutral in February.
Chalk, Cheese, Cats and Dogs - what can we say about La Niña in 2011?
Dr. Andrew Watkins: Manager Climate Prediction Services, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne
"So what about 2011-12? Word on the street is that we might have another La Niña?" I hear you say.
Well that's true. There is an increased chance of La Niña. But the real $64 million question is- how do things stack up against last year? And more to the point, are the odds as high for a big wet?
Well, first of all, let's look at last year. And let's narrow it down to this week last year. This week last year the central Pacific Ocean (which is what every climatologist and their ocean array looks at) was about 1.4°C cooler than normal. That's a lot! So what has the temperature been this week (i.e. right now). Drum roll please ... about 0.6°C cooler than normal or 0.8°C warmer than last year.
To put the -1.4°C (this week last year) and the -0.6°C (this week) into context, in the tropical Pacific during September about 70 per cent of the time the water is within 0.9°C of its normal temperature (23.7°C). In other words, last year was "WOW!!!" and this year is "Well, that's kinda interesting, I might keep an eye on that..."
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Of course the oceans aren't everything (sorry oceanographers, but that's true!). The atmosphere can also tell us how well ENSO is bubbling along. There are lots of ways of looking at the atmospheric part of ENSO, but the most common in Australia is to look at the Southern Oscillation Index, lovingly referred to by both farmers and climate scientists alike as 'The SOI'. When the SOI is positive, it means there is relatively higher pressure over Tahiti than there is over Darwin, and when it's negative it's the opposite. Huh?
Well, all that means is that the region more favourable for rain shifts from Australia and out into the Pacific when the SOI is negative (i.e. El Niño) and shifts more over Australia when its positive (La Niña). About 70 per cent of the time, the SOI lies between +10 and -10. So what was the SOI this time last year? A whopping great +24.7! In climate terms, that's gangbusters. And right now? A respectable, and arguably 'worth writing home to mum about' +8.9.
But, dare I say, ENSO isn't everything. Two other major factors that influence our spring and summer rain are the Indian Ocean and the waters surrounding northern Australia. First the Indian Ocean. Like the Pacific, and indeed some think linked to a degree by atmospheric processes, there is a pattern of sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean that is connected to central and southeast Australian rainfall. Climatologists call this pattern of ocean temperatures the 'Indian Ocean Dipole', or 'IOD'. When it's warm in the west and cool in the east of the Indian Ocean, we have a positive IOD pattern and rainfall shifts away from Australia. Conversely, warm conditions in the east and cool in the west mean a nice set-up for Aussie rain called a negative IOD. Typically (i.e. about 70 per cent of the time) the IOD ranges from about +0.4 to -0.4. So this week last year, what was the IOD? A fairly impressive -1.0. Belting along and all primed for bringing down the wet stuff . And this week: +0.8. Yes, positive and a humongous 1.8 different from 2010. Mmmm...
Finally, we have northern Australia and its sea surface temperatures (of course we have an acronym for that too: SSTs). When the water to our north is warmer than normal, there's greater evaporation and hence there's more moisture floating about to rain down on the continent. Conversely, when it's cooler than normal there's a little less evaporation going on. Have a gander at the two maps - compared to last year, the ocean to the north of Australia is far cooler right now.
So lump that all together, and what do you get? Last year at this time: a raging La Niña, a ripping negative Indian Ocean Dipole and record warm sea surface temperatures off our northern coast (indeed 2010 brought the warmest ocean temperatures on record around Australia). For Aussie rainfall, that's a big tick, tick and tick, and indeed it bucketed cats and dogs.
This year we have a neutral Pacific Ocean (granted on the 'La Niña' side of things and a La Niña remains possible), a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and average to slightly cool temperatures off our northern coasts. For rainfall that's a two-thirds tick, a cross and a bit of a dashed line.
But as anyone who studies the climate will tell you, it's all about shifts in the odds when it comes to climate and the impact of climate drivers. Yes, we'll expect rain this summer and yes, the drivers can and indeed will change, but when you compare where we stand right now to where we were last year it's like chalk and (a little bit chalky) cheese.
This is an extract from Dr Andrew Watkins BoM blog post on 29th September, the full version is here http://www.bom.gov.au/social
Mallee: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
| Month 2011 | Mildura | Decile | Ouyen | Decile | Swan Hill | Decile | Birchip | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR - Highest on Record Decile 10 | ||||||||
| Jan | 129 | 10 | 131 | 10 | 135 | 10 | 181 | 10 |
| Feb | 193 | 10 | 98 | 10 | 46 | 9 | 39 | 9 |
| Mar | 122 | 10 | 37 | 9 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
| Apr | 12 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| May | 13 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 4 |
| June | 10 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| July | 15 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 2 |
| Aug | 20 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 37 | 6 | 51 | 8 |
| Sept | 7 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 25 | 5 |
| Annual | 520 | 10 | 395 | 10 | 333 | 9 | 371 | 9 |
| GSR | 77 | 1 | 129 | 3 | 117 | 2 | 132 | 2 |
| Summer | 444 | HR | 266 | HR | 216 | 10 | 238 | 10 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 2/10/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Apr-Oct GSR, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water |
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| Mildura | Ouyen | Swan Hill | Birchip | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
YIELD PROPHET
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Swan Hill (Sandy Clay Loam)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 110 mm PAW Capacity: 167mm Available Soil N: 85 kg/ha
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Wimmera: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
| Month 2011 | Nhill | Decile | Warracknabeal | Decile | Longerenong | Decile | Edenhope | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR - Highest on Record Decile 10 | ||||||||
| Jan | 107 | 10 | 166 | 10 | 160 | 10 | 110 | 10 |
| Feb | 25 | 7 | 57 | 9 | 69 | 10 | 66 | 10 |
| Mar | 46 | 10 | 38 | 9 | 20 | 6 | 69 | 9 |
| Apr | 10 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 35 | 6 |
| May | 18 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 37 | 4 |
| June | 18 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 47 | 4 |
| July | 39 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 53 | 8 | 75 | 6 |
| Aug | 41 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 45 | 6 | 76 | 6 |
| Sept | 20 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 37 | 2 |
| Annual | 325 | 6 | 396 | 9 | 416 | 9 | 554 | 9 |
| GSR | 146 | 1 | 135 | 1 | 167 | 2 | 308 | 3 |
| Summer | 178 | 10 | 261 | HR | 249 | HR | 245 | 10 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 2/10/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Nhill | Warracknabeal | Longerenong | Edenhope | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-Oct GSR, 15 kg/ha/mm for Edenhope, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water |
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| PAW mm | 80 | 130 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 2.8 |
| 8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
YIELD PROPHET
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Longerenong (Murtoa Clay)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 160 mm PAW Capacity: 191 mm Available Soil N: 65 kg/ha
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Northern: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
| Month 2011 | Boort | Decile | Elmore | Decile | Tungamah | Decile | Rutherglen | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 203 | 10 | 112 | 10 | 59 | 9 | 72 | 9 |
| Feb | 102 | 10 | 125 | 10 | 144 | 10 | 250 | 10 |
| Mar | 35 | 8 | 53 | 8 | 23 | 5 | 44 | 7 |
| Apr | 18 | 5 | 51 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 4 |
| May | 15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 31 | 4 |
| June | 13 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 27 | 2 |
| July | 52 | 9 | 43 | 5 | 54 | 7 | 61 | 6 |
| Aug | 57 | 9 | 60 | 7 | 42 | 5 | 68 | 6 |
| Sept | 62 | 9 | 37 | 5 | 36 | 5 | 54 | 6 |
| Annual | 557 | 10 | 504 | 10 | 422 | 7 | 631 | 10 |
| GSR | 216 | 5 | 213 | 4 | 196 | 2 | 265 | 4 |
| Summer | 340 | HR | 290 | 10 | 226 | 10 | 366 | 10 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 2/10/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Boort | Elmore | Tungamah | Rutherglen | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-Oct GSR, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water |
||||||||
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| 5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 |
| 8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 3.6 |
YIELD PROPHET
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Telford (Sandy clay loam over clay)
Variety: Gregory
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 60 mm PAW Capacity: 96mm Available Soil N: 100 kg/ha
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South West and Gippsland: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
| Month 2011 | Hamilton | Decile | Willaura | Decile | Lismore | Decile | Winchelsea | Decile | East Sale | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 124 | 10 | 126 | 10 | 146 | 10 | 140 | 10 | 39 | 5 |
| Feb | 41 | 8 | 42 | 8 | 58 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 97 | 10 |
| Mar | 78 | 9 | 48 | 9 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 61 | 8 |
| Apr | 68 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 47 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 50 | 7 |
| May | 45 | 3 | 51 | 6 | 46 | 5 | 36 | 4 | 31 | 5 |
| June | 57 | 4 | 30 | 3 | 41 | 4 | 60 | 8 | 24 | 3 |
| July | 88 | 7 | 52 | 6 | 51 | 5 | 70 | 9 | 70 | 9 |
| Aug | 57 | 3 | 30 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 47 | 7 |
| Sept | 27 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 45 | 5 | 56 | 7 |
| Annual | 585 | 8 | 433 | 7 | 474 | 6 | 471 | 8 | 475 | 7 |
| GSR | 343 | 2 | 217 | 2 | 243 | 1 | 265 | 4 | 278 | 6 |
| Summer | 243 | 10 | 216 | 10 | 231 | 10 | 206 | 10 | 197 | 9 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 2/10/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Hamilton | Willaura | Lismore | Winchelsea | East Sale | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-Nov GSR, wheat 15 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap canola 7 kg/ha/mm PAW=Plant available water |
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| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 100 | |||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 |
| 8 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 |
YIELD PROPHET
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Lake Bolac (Fine sandy clay loam over heavy clay)
Variety: Bolac
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 120 mm PAW Capacity: 188 mm Available Soil N: 105 kg/ha
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The Fiver
By Carl Sudholz (DPI, Horsham)
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I recently read The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb, a book about the impact of highly improbable events. The book discusses how we use information, data and statistics to manage uncertain and complex circumstances. The Black Swan is a fascinating read especially with regard to farming which we all know is a roller coaster ride of uncertainty, complexity and unpredictability.
Here, I would like to discuss just one matter Mr Taleb covers in his book - Confirmation Bias.
Confirmation bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) is the tendency for people to favour information that confirms their preconceptions and beliefs regardless of evidence, fact or truth of information.
We are all human and we all suffer from confirmation bias somewhere in our lives. It is very easy to connect to those who 'share our beliefs', to listen to those who 'just make sense'. In the words of the regular Fiver editor, it feels good to be panglossian! Our emotional need to feel safe, comfortable and secure in our beliefs often overrides our intellectual need for the facts.
Visit YouTube for an example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCgIWS67S7Y
Managing your confirmation bias is very important if you are a farmer trying to make a living in a business of which the primary drivers are unpredictable, uncertain and highly consequential. Here are some tips learnt from Mr Taleb.
To counter a confirmation bias you must first recognise that not all information is equal. When it comes to effective decision making, just one piece of factual information that contradicts your belief, is far more valuable than a thousand pieces of information that confirm it. When you are betting your livelihood on the harvest of a crop, you need to look out for information that says 'you are wrong' and that 'she will not be right'.
To find such information, you must have the courage to ask why things are not the way you believe them to be. A simple start is to ask your family and advisors 'why I am wrong about that'. Listen and be open to the response. Don't argue! The answers may be confronting but the insights uncovered will be illuminating. In such answers you will find the most useful information to help limit the impact of that price crash, disease epidemic, drought or flood.
At best you may avoid a big loss, or perhaps uncover a great opportunity, as this approach works for the positive as well. At worst, you will have recognised a weakness and as Mr Taleb says "a great chess player is made not from practice, but from the search for their own weakness."
There are many other types of biases in human perception and someone made a (not very good) song about them: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RsbmjNLQkc
