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The Fast Break Newsletter: November 2011

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 6/Issue 11 28 November 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719

Seasonal model forecasts for Victoria over the next three months:
Current outlook (November 28) Past outlook (October 28)

PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool (La Nina)
INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral
RAINFALL: Mixed
TEMPERATURE: Average/slightly warmer

 PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool (La Nina)
INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral
RAINFALL: Average/slightly wetter
TEMPERATURE: Slightly warmer/average

30 Day Moving SOI

Graph showing the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has declined over the last two weeks but remains near La Niña thresholds. The latest (21 November) 30-day SOI value is +7.7.

The SOI remains positive. The latest value is +10.4. This indicates that the air pressure conditions along the equator are consistent with a La Niña.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts

700mb (Obs: 08 Aug 2011-05 Dec 2011) AAO index

The daily AAO indices are shown for the previous 120 days, and the GFS forecasts of the daily AAO index at selected lead times are appended onto the time series. The indices are standardized by standard deviation of the observed monthly AO index from 1979-2000. A 3-day running mean is applied to the forecast time series.

The Southern Annular Mode has spent most of November in the negative phase. The SAM’s effect at this time of the year is variable.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml

Map showing Operational Data Sea Level Pressure (mb) 30-day mean for: saturday 29th October, 2011 to Sunday 27 November 2011

For the last 30 days high pressure over Australia has averaged at a close to normal osition, however, this has been countered by stronger pressure than normal.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif

NOAA/AESDIS SST Anomaly (degrees C), 12/5/2011

CRW's near-real-time global SST Anomaly product makes it possible to quickly pinpoint regions of elevated SSTs throughout the world oceans. It is especially valuable for the tropical regions where most of the world's coral reef ecosystems thrive. It is also very useful in assessing ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) development, monitoring hurricane

The SST anomaly map shows the weak La Niña cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Coral Sea shows some minor cooling in the last month, but the Timor Sea has continued to warm.
www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

OLR Anomalies: Average of 5 Dec 2011: 5 Dec 2011

Global maps of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) highlight regions experiencing more or less cloudiness. The top panel is the total OLR in Watts per square metre (W/m²) and the bottom panel is the anomaly (current minus the 1979-1998 climate average), in W/m². In the bottom panel, negative values (blue shading) represent above normal cloudiness while positive values (brown shading) represent below normal cloudiness.

Victoria has seen slightly more cloud for the past 30 days, but much of Australia has been cloudier. Cloud is less than normal at the dateline on the equator, indicative of La Niña. The low cloudiness anomaly off the island of Sumatra is returning to normal levels.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 28 November 2011

View table of Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions for 28 November 2011

Editors
Dale Grey Cobram DPI 03 5871 0600 dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au
Chris Sounness Horsham DPI 03 5362 2111 chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au
Chris Pittock Horsham DPI 03 5362 2111 chris.pittock@dpi.com.au