The Break Newsletter
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 9 November 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-711
This Issue
- State Round Up
- Seasonal Outlook
- How Low Can They Grow?
- Mallee
- Wimmera
- Northern
- South West/Gippsland
- The Fiver
And the Big Headers Fly
The 2011 harvest cup is being hotly contested. Too many unpleasant, not so long ago memories are causing many players to get sleepless nights while the grain moisture conditions are right. Where once people may havethought they had heaps of time, now as soon as crops are remotely ready they’re being ravaged by big red, green, grey and yellow machines. Whilst it will be tempting to go hard or go home, don’t forget that you, your family and your staff are the most important asset on the farm. We can all remember those bad decisions, or lack of observation made, when the brain was in another place, probably wishing it was in bed.
I am reminded of the analogy put forward by Stephen Covey in his book The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. You gotta stop and sharpen the saw occasionally. Sooner or later your Echo gets blunt and you keep on cutting on, getting slower and more ineffi cient and one kick back away from losing a limb. Take some time out to sharpen the chain and you’re soon back to sending sawdust in every direction and your spine is loving you too. I might add this is certainly a case of do as I say, not as I do! Seriously though, mistakes happen when your tired. Get some decent sleep to keep yourself sharp.
Those of you yet to strike a blow, or on rain hold, might like to ponder a few of my random harvest thoughts-
Fill the knapsacks with water and make sure they work.
Ditto for the fire pump.
Don’t leave seed harvest till last.
That squeaking bearing won’t last another season.
Book your vacation accommodation early.
Weevils love grain moisture above 12 per cent.
Yield map data must be backed up.
Redfin are the tastiest freshwater fish.
Never leave your lunchbox in the shade behind a tyre!
Best wishes for harvest from “The Break” team
D.G.
State Round Up - In the paddock
Mallee: GSR Decile (2-3)
 |
|
It will never look this red again (photo R.Sonogan) |
North and central barley 30-50% harvested some going malt, low protein and minor frost damage exists, yield 2-4 t/ha, Canola 25% harvested, some wind damage and shattering loss, yield 1t/ha, 44-48% oil. Some northern wheat harvested with low protein. Some legumes harvested. Excellent quality hay made before the rain.
Wimmera: GSR Decile (1-3)
Canola and barley being harvested, harvest just starting to crank up. Windrowing yet to be completed. Recent rains will help late maturing cereals and legumes. Pretty keen on some dry, warm weather.
Northern: GSR Decile (2-6)
NE- Crops looking great and drying down. Windrowing canola in full swing, Barley and canola just being harvested. Canola yielding 1.5-2 t/ha. Cereal grain fi ll looks good, don’t expect screenings issues. Should be lots of 3-5t /ha cereals.
NC- Serious harvest imminent, crops in drydown phase, no reports of hail damage or lodging. First canola harvested, with some suspect frost damage. Plenty of interest in irrigated summer forage and soybeans.
South West GSR Decile (1-4)
Early sown cereals are at late flower to early grain fill, earliest canola is close to windrowing. Disease appears to be under control. Soil profiles drying out, rain would be well received and beneficial to most crops.
Gippsland: GSR Decile (5)
Crops at mid grain fill, still green, wheat 3-6t/ha potential. Leaf rust is an issue for some. Canola is starting to be windrowed. Plenty of soil moisture, turn the tap off now.
Dam Capacities
www.gwmwater.org.au www.g-mwater.com.au
Grampians Wimmera Mallee: 68.8%, Rocklands 59%
Goulburn-Murray: Dartmouth 75%, Hume 94%, Eildon 99.3%, Eppalock 97.3%
NSW: Eucumbene 47.9%, Burrinjuck 89%, Menindee 110%
Seasonal Outlook
Summary: La Niña slowly builds in the tropical Pacifi c (9 November) www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
La Niña conditions have strengthened slightly over the past fortnight, with some, but not all, atmospheric and oceanic indicators intensifying. Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the event is likely to peak towards the end of 2011, and persist into early 2012. It is considered unlikely that the current La Niña will be as strong as the La Niña event of 2010-11. ENSO indicators continue to remain at or in excess of La Niña thresholds: the tropical Pacifi c Ocean is cooler than average for this time of year, especially below the surface, while the trade winds, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness in the tropical Pacifi c are all at levels consistent with a La Niña event. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November-April).
SOI: Southern Oscillation Indexhttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/SOI: Is the air pressure diff erence between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI spent most of October in signifi cantly positive territory. The latest (14 Nov) 30-day SOI value is +9.4. This is indicating that the pressure patterns around the equator are behaving like we have a La Niña. |
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SST: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalieshttp://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.htmlSea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have cooled further in October and have reached La Niña thresholds. The IOD+ weakened dramatically and disappeared through the month. The Timor sea has warmed a lot and the Coral Sea has warmed a bit. |
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Sub-surface Sea Temperatureswww.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtmlThe sub-surface Pacifi c Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, for October, show a large area of cooler water to depth across the eastern and central Pacific. Anomalies are more than 4° C cooler than average, providing a good source of cooler water for upwelling to the surface. This gives confidence that the current La Niña event will hang around for a while. |
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ENSO Forecast - POAMA2 Modelhttp://poama.bom.gov.au/sst.shtmlThe ocean temperature at NINO3.4 is predicted to stay at the La Niña threshold until March, when it will return to neutral. |
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How Low Can They Grow?
Dale Grey, Cobram DPI
The 2011 growing season is going down in history as a marvellous opportunity to observe maximum crop rooting depth, albeit it for a brief time before recent rain spoilt things. Many soils already had wet profi les going into sowing time. The wet conditions in July and August meant that many soils reached saturation point and trafficability was a real issue. Since then it has hardly rained enough, but still the crops have grown well on the stored soil moisture. This has allowed crop roots to grow as far as is possible in many soil types.
In the fourth week of May DPI installed some soil moisture probes to test their use in decision making in dryland cropping around the state. The probes are continuously monitoring soil moisture from 20 cm - 1m.
| Location |
Crop |
Variety |
Soil Type |
Date roots hit 50cm |
Date moisture depleted at 50cm |
Date roots hit 1m |
Date moisture depleted at 1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werrimul NW Mallee |
Wheat | Yitpi | Sandy loam | 13 Jul | 10 Oct | 3 Aug | 19 Oct |
| Speed Central Mallee |
Wheat | Yitpi | Sandy loam over loam |
4 Sept |
8 Nov |
29 Oct |
Not yet |
| Normanville SE Mallee |
Wheat | Correll |
Loam over Clay loam |
24 Aug |
26 Oct |
14 Sept |
8 Nov |
| Lah N Wimmera |
Canola |
44Y84 |
Sandy clay loam over clay loam |
26 June |
7 Sept |
30 Aug |
30 Oct |
| Raywood NC |
Wheat | Young |
clay loam over med. clay |
26 Sept |
8 Nov |
Only at 90cm |
Not yet |
| Youanmite NE |
Wheat | Sentinel |
Loam over med.clay. |
23 Aug |
26 Sept |
30 Sept |
7 Nov |
| Lake Bolac SW |
Wheat | Derrimut |
Sandy clay loam over med.clay |
28 Aug |
24 Oct |
30 Sept |
28 Oct |
| Hamilton SW |
Wheat | Bolac |
Clay loam over heavy clay |
5 Aug |
1 Nov |
30 Sept |
Not yet |
| Sale Gippsland |
Wheat | Revenue |
Sandy loam over heavy clay |
5 Sept |
29 Oct |
Only at 90cm | Not yet |
Whilst its early days for calibration yet, we can say some things generally about root growth at these sites.
- The Werrimul site with its deep sandy profi le, most likely had crop roots grow past the 1m mark.
- The Sale and Raywood sites with their tight clay subsoils have had roots reach the 90cm mark, Sale has the time to grow a bit further, where Raywood is close to maturity.
- The Speed site, despite crop maturity did not quite exploit the whole 90cm-1m profile.
- The Normanville and Youanmite wheat and Brim canola sites have depleted the 1m zone at crop maturity. At Youanmite a soil core showed roots grew to 98cm
- The Lake Bolac site is at mid grain fi ll, still green and may have gone past 1m depth.
- The Hamilton site is at early grain fi ll, still green and is yet to use all the moisture at 1m.
Mallee: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 |
Mildura |
Decile |
Ouyen |
Decile |
Swan Hill |
Decile |
Birchip |
Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan |
129 |
10 |
131 |
10 |
135 |
10 |
181 |
10 |
| Feb |
193 |
10 |
98 |
10 |
46 |
9 |
39 |
9 |
| Mar |
122 |
10 |
37 |
9 |
34 |
8 |
19 |
6 |
| Apr |
12 |
6 |
13 |
5 |
21 |
6 |
12 |
4 |
| May |
13 |
4 |
20 |
5 |
18 |
4 |
17 |
4 |
| June |
10 |
3 |
15 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
10 |
2 |
| July |
15 |
3 |
18 |
3 |
18 |
3 |
18 |
2 |
| Aug |
20 |
5 |
41 |
8 |
37 |
6 |
51 |
8 |
| Sept |
7 |
2 |
22 |
5 |
14 |
3 |
25 |
5 |
| Oct |
27 |
7 |
38 |
7 |
24 |
5 |
29 |
5 |
| Annual |
548 |
HR |
434 |
10 |
357 |
9 |
399 |
9 |
| GSR |
104 |
2 |
168 |
3 |
141 |
2 |
161 |
2 |
| Summer |
444 |
HR |
266 |
HR |
216 |
10 |
238 |
10 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles. Run on 3/11/11. Plant available water at sowing has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.| Mildura |
Ouyen |
Swan Hill |
Birchip |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm |
130 |
120 |
120 | 120 | ||||
| WUE |
Wheat |
Canola |
Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 10 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
| 15 |
1.9 |
0.9 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
| 20 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
3.5 |
1.8 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
3.4 |
1.7 |
YIELD PROPHET
www.yieldprophet.com.au/Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Swan Hill (Sandy Clay Loam)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 110m
PAW Capacity:167mm
Available Soil N: 85kg/ha
Wimmera: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 |
Nhill |
Decile |
Warracknabeal |
Decile |
Longerenong |
Decile |
Edenhope |
Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan |
107 |
10 |
166 |
10 |
160 |
10 |
110 |
10 |
| Feb |
25 |
7 |
57 |
9 |
69 |
10 |
66 |
10 |
| Mar |
46 |
10 |
38 |
9 |
20 |
6 |
69 |
9 |
| Apr |
10 |
3 |
8 |
3 |
14 |
4 |
35 |
6 |
| May |
18 |
3 |
28 |
4 |
23 |
3 |
37 |
4 |
| June |
18 |
2 |
15 |
2 |
19 |
2 |
47 |
4 |
| July |
39 |
5 |
40 |
6 |
53 |
8 |
75 |
6 |
| Aug |
41 |
5 |
35 |
5 |
45 |
6 |
76 |
6 |
| Sept |
20 |
2 |
9 |
1 |
13 |
1 |
37 |
2 |
| Oct |
35 |
5 |
37 |
6 |
35 |
5 |
39 |
4 |
| Annual |
360 |
6 |
433 |
9 |
451 |
9 |
593 |
9 |
| GSR |
182 |
2 |
172 |
1 |
202 |
2 |
347 |
3 |
| Summer |
178 |
10 |
261 |
HR |
249 |
HR |
245 |
10 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles. Run on 3/11/11. Plant available water at sowing has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.| Nhill |
Warracknabeal |
Longerenong |
Edenhope |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm |
80 |
130 |
120 | 120 | ||||
| WUE |
Wheat |
Canola |
Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 10 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
1.1 |
3.6 |
1.8 |
| 15 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
2.9 |
1.4 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
5.4 |
2.7 |
| 20 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
4.2 |
2.1 |
7.2 |
3.6 |
YIELD PROPHET
www.yieldprophet.com.au/Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Longerenong (Murtoa Clay)
Variety: YitpiSowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 160m
PAW Capacity:191mm
Available Soil N: 65kg/ha
Northern: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 |
Boort |
Decile |
Elmore |
Decile |
Tungamah |
Decile |
Rutherglen |
Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan |
203 |
10 |
112 |
10 |
59 |
9 |
72 |
9 |
| Feb |
102 |
10 |
125 |
10 |
144 |
10 |
250 |
10 |
| Mar |
35 |
8 |
53 |
8 |
23 |
5 |
44 |
7 |
| Apr |
18 |
5 |
51 |
8 |
25 |
5 |
24 |
4 |
| May |
15 |
3 |
14 |
3 |
21 |
3 |
31 |
4 |
| June |
13 |
2 |
9 |
1 |
20 |
2 |
27 |
2 |
| July |
52 |
9 |
43 |
5 |
54 |
7 |
61 |
6 |
| Aug |
57 |
9 |
60 |
7 |
42 |
5 |
68 |
6 |
| Sept |
62 |
9 |
37 |
5 |
36 |
5 |
54 |
6 |
| Oct |
14 |
3 |
15 |
2 |
23 |
3 |
29 |
3 |
| Annual |
571 |
10 |
519 |
9 |
445 |
6 |
660 |
9 |
| GSR |
230 |
6 |
228 |
3 |
219 |
2 |
294 |
3 |
| Summer |
340 |
HR |
290 |
10 |
226 |
10 |
366 |
10 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles. Run on 3/11/11. Plant available water at sowing has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.| Boort |
Elmore |
Tungamah |
Rutherglen |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm |
130 |
120 |
120 | 120 | ||||
| WUE |
Wheat |
Canola |
Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 10 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
| 15 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
3.6 |
1.8 |
3.4 |
1.7 |
4.6 |
2.3 |
| 20 |
5.0 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
2.4 |
4.6 |
2.3 |
6.1 |
3.0 |
YIELD PROPHET
www.yieldprophet.com.au/Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Telford (Sandy clay loam over clay)
Variety: GregorySowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 60m
PAW Capacity:96mm
Available Soil N: 100kg/ha
South West and Gippsland: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 |
Hamilton |
Decile |
Willaura |
Decile |
Lismore |
Decile |
Winchelsea |
Decile |
East Sale |
Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January |
124 |
10 |
126 |
10 |
146 |
10 |
140 |
10 |
39 |
5 |
| February |
41 |
8 |
42 |
8 |
58 |
8 |
34 |
7 |
97 |
10 |
| March |
78 |
9 |
48 |
9 |
27 |
5 |
32 |
6 |
61 |
8 |
| April |
68 |
8 |
33 |
5 |
47 |
6 |
22 |
4 |
50 |
7 |
| May |
45 |
3 |
51 |
6 |
46 |
5 |
36 |
4 |
31 |
5 |
| June |
57 |
4 |
30 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
60 |
8 |
24 |
3 |
| July |
88 |
7 |
52 |
6 |
51 |
5 |
70 |
9 |
70 |
9 |
| Aug |
57 |
3 |
30 |
2 |
29 |
1 |
31 |
2 |
47 |
7 |
| Sept |
27 |
1 |
21 |
1 |
30 |
1 |
45 |
5 |
56 |
7 |
| Oct |
66 |
6 |
41 |
4 |
63 |
6 |
54 |
6 |
60 |
6 |
| Annual |
651 |
8 |
473 |
6 |
537 |
6 |
525 |
8 |
535 |
7 |
| GSR |
408 |
2 |
257 |
2 |
306 |
1 |
319 |
4 |
338 |
5 |
| Summer |
243 |
10 |
216 |
10 |
231 |
10 |
206 |
10 |
197 |
9 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles. Run on 3/11/11. Plant available water at sowing has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Hamilton |
Willaura |
Lismore |
Winchelsea |
East sale |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm |
140 |
140 |
120 |
100 |
100 |
|||||
| WUE |
Wheat |
Canola |
Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat |
Canola |
| Decile 1 |
7.0 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
2.3 |
5.1 |
2.6 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
5.3 |
2.7 |
| Decile 5 |
7.4 |
3.7 |
5.0 |
2.5 |
5.6 |
2.8 |
5.3 |
2.6 |
5.8 |
2.9 |
| Decile 8 |
7.8 |
3.9 |
5.4 |
2.7 |
5.9 |
3.0 |
5.7 |
2.9 |
6.3 |
3.1 |
YIELD PROPHET
www.yieldprophet.com.au/Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Lake Bolac (Fine sandy clay loam over heavy clay)
Variety: BolacSowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 120m
PAW Capacity:188mmpAvailable Soil N: 105kg/hap
The Fiver
By Chris Sounness (DPI, Horsham)
Its November and the harvest has started with good but patchy yields. Some paddocks are going better then expected, others worse, particularly if the mice had a bit of fun back in autumn.
Hopefully this can continue and we have a good average year. Oh for one of those! I was looking at the Wimmera rainfall records the other day, if you take out January rainfall, the numbers reveal that most farmers have made the most of the summer rainfall. Crops look far better than they should for the most part and reflect the skills in using stored moisture as a key component of great farming. Something the last 10 years has emphasised. This skill which Northern NSW and QLD growers take for granted, is putting us in good stead to handle the variability the climate is going to toss up. Maybe someone needs to organize a trip up north to see what technologies they use in their dryland cropping situation to cope? Plenty of learning available I think.
One tool I use to see what is going on around Australia and the globe is Twitter. Two editions ago I mentioned a few people to follow, this time it is all about the hash tag which lets you follow subjects of interest. ie if you are as shallow as a 2008 Victorian dam and you follow a hashtag with the name of some B grade celebrity, you could then see everyone’s comments about them. If you are into QandA – the ABC show and read the comments at the bottom of the screen, they are all done with the #qanda tag.
Hash tags to follow that I think you may be interested in include-
#agchatoz is the main conversation when it comes to farming and twitter. A number of farmers around Australia post comments using this tag.
#harvest11 people who are commenting on how harvest is going, the trials and tribulations about their chaser bins and breakdowns, tend to use this tag.
#farming if you are keen to see what is happening around the world and how the term “farming” might be changing before your very eyes, especially what society takes it to mean.
#seed for discussion around seed of all type - a very interesting range.
#fertiliser for similar chat about fertiliser and finally,
#gm to really get engaged in a topic or turned off , one or the other, there is no middle ground on this chat.
Have a go and join the conversation.
