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The Fast Break Newsletter: May 2011

Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions

Volume 6/Issue 5 - 26 May 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719

 

Current outlook (May 26) Past outlook (April 27)
PACIFIC OCEAN: No clear signal
INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral/weak IOD+
RAINFALL: Average
TEMPERATURE: Average/Slightly warmer		 PACIFIC OCEAN: No clear signal
INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral
RAINFALL: No clear signal
TEMPERATURE: Average/slightly warmer

30 Day Moving SOI

The SOI has fallen rapidly indicating that the Walker Circulation is returning to normal. Pressure is similar at Darwin and Tahiti (an indicator of neutral conditions).

March 1

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Lower Soil Moisture

Upper Soil Moisture (week ending 15/5/11) The relative sub-soil moisture percentage is still damp for much of the state.

©CSIRO AWAP Experimental

March 2

http://www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Air Presssure

Air Presssure (MSLP last 30 days NOAA) High pressures over Victoria have been at a close to normal latitude, a semi-favourable longitude, but higher than average pressure.

March 3

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif

NOAA/NESDIS SST Anomaly (degrees C)

The equatorial Pacifi c Ocean SST’s have warmed to normal levels classifi ed as neutral. The Indian Ocean off southern WA is still warmer. The Timor Sea is cooler.

 

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

OLR Totals

Victoria has seen average cloud for the last 30 days, northern WA has seen more cloud. Cloud has started to return to normal near the dateline at the equator, matching the ocean and SOI indicators.

March 5

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo

Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 27th April 2011

 
  Month of Run Forecast Months Winter Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 Winter Eastern Indian Ocean Winter Rainfall Winter Temperature
Coupled GCM’s System 3 ECMWF Europe May JJA Neutral

Neutral

 Average? Average E/
slightly warmer
W?
POAMA BoM Australia May JJA Slightly warm
(weak El Niño)		 Neutral/
(weak IOD+)		 Slightly drier Slightly warmer/
average coast
SINTEX JMA Japan May JJA Slightly cool Neutral
(weak IOD+)		 Average/ slightly
wetter E Gipps		 Average/
slightly warmer W
CFS03 NCEP USA May JJA Neutral Neutral
(IOD+)		 Average Average
GSM ECPC USA May JJA
  Average Average
Ensemble UKMO UK May JJA Slightly warm Neutral/
(weak IOD+)		 Average Average
IRI USA May JJA Slightly cool Neutral Neutral Neutral W/
slightly warmer
E
APCC Korea Experimental May JJA
  Average Average
Statistical BoM
Seasonal forecast		 May JJA
  Neutral Slightly warmer
QDNRM Qld Australia May JJA
  Slightly
drier/
average E
Gipps		  
ESS DAF WA May JJA Neutral   Average,
slightly
drier Gipps		  
Legend
 
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions.
Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.
Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions.
Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.

 

  Fore-cast Months Spring Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 Spring Eastern Indian Ocean Spring Rainfall Spring Temp Comments Web Address
Coupled GCM’s System 3 ECMWF Europe SON Neutral

Neutral/
slightly warm

 Slightly wetter? Average? Victoria doesn't feature on their map of the world! link
POAMA BoM Australia SON Warm
(El Niño)		 Neutral
(weak IOD+)		 Slightly drier/ average
Mallee		 Average/ slightly
warmer Mallee, E
Gipps		 Experimental link
SINTEX JMA Japan SON Slightly cool Neutral Average W/
slightly wetter E		 Average/
slightly cooler E		 Experimental link
CFS03 NCEP USA SON Neutral Neutral
(weak IOD+)		 Average Average   link
GSM ECPC USA SON
  Average Average   link
Ensemble UKMO UK ASO Neutral Neutral
(IOD+)		 Average Average   link
IRI USA SON Slightly cool Neutral Neutral Neutral   link
APCC Korea Experi-mental  
      Experimental summary for 20 CGC models. link
Statistical BoM Seasonal forecast  
      Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall link
QDNRM Qld Australia  
      5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI link
ESS DAF WA SON Slightly
cool		       David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST. link
Legend
 
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions.
Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.
Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions.
Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.
 

 

Editors:
Dale Grey: Cobram DPI 03 5871 0600 dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au
Chris Sounness: Horsham DPI 03 5362 2111 chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au

Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains
110 Natimuk Rd
Horsham Vic 3401