The Break Newsletter
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 3 May 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-711
This Issue
- State Round Up
- Seasonal Outlook
- The Uncoupled Pacific
- Mallee
- Wimmera
- Northern
- South West/Gippsland
- The Fiver
Will the real break please step forward?
We live in strange times particularly if the majority of your farming experience has been since 1997. For grain farmers east of Bendigo the break has happened with every following rain event and blue blob on the radar regarded with fear. A large number of people are aware that 20 mm plus is going to cause pain and slow the program down, some clay soils need much more to ensure a start. In the Wimmera-Mallee dry sowing is the order of the day, so rain is wanted, but once again too much will quickly make some paddocks too wet. Ten millimetres is essential to get the season away, however events over 30 mm will put a big dampener on the seasonal break. Please enjoy the pun. The Western District is even more concerned about the likelihood of it getting too wet and some parts of prime Western District cropping country turning into temporary swamps. While 10 mm is needed to get germination going some feel anything more than 15 mm will make it too wet. It is a fine line to quote Chrissy Amphlett.
With moisture management at the forefront, the risks besides waterlogging are numerous. Getting the canola crop up and away is the number one focus for many growers. If early estimates are substantiated the canola area is expressing exponential growth in the Wimmera-Mallee, while the South West growers are showing a bit of reluctance to plant canola this year. I am sure many Western District canola growers are saying to the Wimmera-Mallee “enjoy the slugs, larks, uneven germination and the red leaf colours canola growing brings.”
Risk management by its nature means you are expecting some crops to be far from optimal. Keep this in mind when thinking through the decision making as to why some dry sowing has failed or why sowing after the break was a poor choice. 2011 is going to be the year where not all the breaks go your way but the ones that do could make a great season.
State Round Up-In the paddock
Mallee: April Decile (4-6)
Sowing close to 50% completed, mainly in the central and northern Mallee. Soil moisture is now becoming too dry on some heavier paddocks to achieve satisfactory germination. Canola, lupins, vetch and stock-feed cereal paddocks are generally all completed and wheat and barley are currently going in. Crops sown before ANZAC day are coming up. Mice causing emergence damage. A record canola crop has been planted.
Wimmera: April Decile (3-6)
Dry sowing into marginal/sub-optimal moisture. No one in a rush. half the planned canola in the ground. Wheat is around 25 per cent of sowing intention. Lack of rainfall is starting to get the nerves jangling as much as the cold days are getting the teeth chattering. The common phrase being heard is “if we can just get enough to get a germination we will be right.” Paddock preparation has removed pest cover and food sources, so any crops that are germinating are getting a pounding from both insects and vertebrates.
Northern: April Decile (4-8)
NE-Most of the canola and winter wheat is in, some has emerged. Much of the cereal is being planted into marginal moisture conditions, moisture is at the dangerous to dry level at the moment, some mouse baiting occurring. NC- Sowing is progressing well in the south of the region, but as you travel north, lack of surface moisture is beginning to halt sowing, particularly in the heavy soils. At least 15 - 20mm no more-no less is required to get going again.
South West/Gippsland: April Decile (4-8)
SW- Sowing has commenced with canola and long season wheat the majority of crops sown. The soil profile is full and it won’t take much winter rainfall to create waterlogging issues. Better drained land or those with raised beds are in the box seat. Some paddocks are still too wet to sow and will be sown to spring or summer crops. Gipps- A third of crop sown, canola and grazing wheat nearly all in, spring wheat going in now where conditions are dry enough. Cockchafers and slugs causing some issues.
Dam Capacity www.gwmwater.org.au www.g-mwater.com.au
Grampians Wimmera Mallee: 58.5%
Goulburn-Murray: Dartmouth 63.2%, Hume 93.2%, Eildon 84.1%, Eppalock 97.4%
NSW: Eucumbene 35.4%, Burrinjuck 92%, Menindee 110%
Seasonal Outlook
Summary: La Niña near its end (11th May)
The 2010−11 La Niña event is nearing its end, with most indicators approaching neutral values. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, with neutral conditions likely to persist through the austral winter.
Steady warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean since mid-January has resulted in near-normal ocean temperatures. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña are now responding to these changes in the ocean and an active Madden Julian Oscillation, resulting in a weakening of trade winds, changes in cloudiness and an easing of typical La Niña pressure patterns. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which recorded its highest April value since 1971, has dropped from above +25 to +11 in the past fortnight.
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is currently neutral. A weakly positive IOD event has been forecast to develop during winter. In the past, positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the south east, during the winter and spring seasons.
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
SOI: Is the air pressure diff erence between Tahiti and Darwin.
The SOI has been falling rapidly in May indicating that the Walker Circulation (wind patterns over the equator region of the Padific Ocean) is returning to normality. This is indicative of Neutral conditions. A westerly wind burst has helped this recent SOI fall.
SST: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
SST’s in the central Pacific have continued to warm to neutral conditions. The Coral Sea is neutral. The Timor Sea is cooler, the Indian Ocean off Carnarvon remains warmer.
Sub-surface Sea Temperatures
www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml
The sub-surface eastern Pacific Ocean equatorial cool temperature anomaly has continued to warm to neutral levels at depth. The warmth in the western Pacific depths is propagating slowly eastwards.
ENSO Forecast Models - POAMA
www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
The POAMA model in the NINO 3.4 region predicts ocean temperatures to stay at neutral levels for winter, but moving into El Niño temperatures in Spring.
Unravelling the vagaries of an uncoupled Pacifi c Ocean
By Dale Grey, Cobran DPI
By now, many of our long term readers would be well aware that when the Pacific Ocean is doing its thing, everything needs to be working in harmony, or as the climatologists call it “fully coupled”. The ocean needs to be “talking” to the atmosphere above it and the winds and pressure above need to be “talking” to the ocean below. The sea surface temperatures get partly infl uenced by the sub surface ocean temperatures and also by the presence or absence of wind above. The winds above and the temperature of the surface water dictate where pressure will be high or low across the equator, which in turn influences where moisture laden cloud will accumulate. Sounds complex? Well you’re right! Here at “The Break” though we aim to cut through the gloom of complexity with the shining light of clarity.
Take last years La Niña for instance, since August 2010 the ocean surface and subsurface temperatures were cool. The trade winds were blowingstrongly from the east, particularly in the western equatorial Pacific. This kept a lack of cloud around the International dateline but pushed and held a subsequent abundance of cloud north of Australia, where the ocean surface temperature reached record levels. The Southern Oscillation index was strongly positive indicating that the pressure over northern Australia was lower, helped by the rising warm moist air mass in this region. Until the end of March 2011 these phenomena remained and the system was fully “in sync” (i.e. coupled). The results of a fully coupled systemin the Pacific Ocean this spring/summer are clear for all to see. Imagine hydraulic hoses connected to tractor couplings and oilflowing between implement and machine depending on controls and signals from either end.
Contrast this with the 2009 El Niño. Through April and May the trade winds reversed and blew strongly from the west, correspondingly, the SOI plummetted to negative levels indicating pressurewas high over Darwin, the ocean warmed at the surface and below and come June the Pacifi c Ocean temperatures reached the threshold for El Niño. So far fully coupled. Then strangely the SOI took off into positive territory in July, (note to self, a hose has just come undone somewhere). Through most of winter and early spring, cloud over the International Date Line stayed normal but remained quite strong over the Coral sea, one of our best moisture sources for Victoria rainfall. In October further westerly wind bursts occurred and the SOI plummeted into the negative again (got that hose connected at last). All this time the Pacific equatorial ocean stayed at El Niño levels at the surface and depth. Over summer the system continued its on again/off again behaviour and the Coral Sea amazingly remained warm and cloudy as a moisture source (note to self, summer rain occurred in an El Niño).
So what of current conditions you ask? Well the Pacific Ocean had been fully uncoupled since March. The surface and sub surface temperatures warmed dramatically over the last two months to become neutral. BUT the SOI had remained positive, the trade winds were still blowing strong from the east and there was a lack of cloud over the date line and heaps north of Australia. As the summer La Niña broke down the indicators have seemed at odds with each other (there’s that damn faulty hose again) and to add insult to injury the current pattern of local pressure and rain seems more El Niño like. In the last two weeks, the SOI has rocketed down, the trade wind have backed off and the cloud is starting to break up in the north, indicating that some sense maybe starting to be restored to the system (hoses all connected again). A completely coupled neutral Pacific Ocean is close at hand. Such a delayed pattern of La Niña breakdown is apparently completely normal.
So you can see that nothing works in isolation. It shows the foolishness of looking at just one indicator. So when someone next tells you that the SOI has just done something strange, ask them what the ocean is also doing. Work out for yourself whether the hydraulic hoses in the Pacific Ocean along the Equator are coupled up or dissconnected somewhere. When things are uncoupled, seasonal climate prediction is a much harder game. The local drivers of the position and strength of pressure, prevalence of frontal systems, and sea temperatures to the north of Australia become the major indicators.
Mallee: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Mildura | Decile | Ouyen | Decile | Swan Hill | Decile | Birchip | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 129 | 10 | 131 | 10 | 135 | 10 | 181 | 10 |
| February | 183 | 10 | 98 | 10 | 46 | 9 | 41 | 9 |
| March | 122 | 10 | 37 | 9 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
| April | 12 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| Jan-April | 455 | HR | 279 | HR | 237 | 10 | 250 | 10 |
| Jan-March | 444 | HR | 266 | HR | 216 | 10 | 238 | 10 |
| HR - Highest on Record Decile 10 | ||||||||
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 4/5/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 fi nishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Mildura | Ouyen | Swan Hill | Birchip | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 3.1 |
| Apr-Oct GSR, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water | ||||||||
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Swan Hill (Sandy Clay Loam)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 110 mm PAW Capacity: 167mm Available Soil N:
Wimmera: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Nhill | Decile | Warracknabeal | Decile | Longerenong | Decile | Edenhope | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 107 | 10 | 165 | 10 | 160 | 10 | 110 | 10 |
| February | 25 | 7 | 57 | 9 | 69 | 10 | 66 | 10 |
| March | 46 | 10 | 38 | 9 | 20 | 6 | 69 | 9 |
| April | 10 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 35 | 6 |
| Jan-April | 188 | 10 | 269 | 10 | 263 | 10 | 281 | 10 |
| Jan-March | 178 | 10 | 261 | HR | 249 | HR | 245 | 10 |
| HR - Highest on Record Decile 10 | ||||||||
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 4/5/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 fi nishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Nhill | Warracknabeal | Longerenong | Edenhope | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 80 | 130 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| 5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 |
| 8 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 |
| Apr-Oct GSR, 15 kg/ha/mm for Edenhope, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water | ||||||||
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Longerenong (Murtoa Clay)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 160 mm PAW Capacity: 191 mm Available Soil N: 65 kg/ha
North East: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Boort | Decile | Elmore | Decile | Tungamah | Decile | Rutherglen | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 203 | 10 | 112 | 10 | 59 | 9 | 72 | 9 |
| February | 102 | 10 | 125 | 10 | 156 | 10 | 250 | 10 |
| March | 35 | 8 | 53 | 8 | 23 | 5 | 44 | 7 |
| April | 18 | 5 | 51 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 4 |
| Jan-April | 358 | HR | 341 | 10 | 250 | 9 | 390 | 10 |
| Jan-March | 340 | HR | 290 | 10 | 226 | 10 | 366 | 10 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 4/5/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Boort | Elmore | Tungamah | Rutherglen | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 80 | 130 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 5 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 3.7 |
| 8 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 |
| Apr-Oct GSR, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water | ||||||||
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Telford (Sandy clay loam over clay)
Variety: Gregory
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 60 mm PAW Capacity: 96mm Available Soil N: 100 kg/ha
South West and Gippsland: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
| Month 2011 | Mildura | Decile | Ouyen | Decile | Swan Hill | Decile | Birchip | Decile | Decile | Birchip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 124 | 10 | 126 | 10 | 146 | 10 | 140 | 10 | 39 | 5 |
| February | 41 | 8 | 45 | 8 | 58 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 97 | 10 |
| March | 78 | 9 | 48 | 9 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 61 | 8 |
| April | 68 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 47 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 54 | 7 |
| Jan-April | 311 | 10 | 249 | 10 | 277 | 10 | 228 | 10 | 251 | 8 |
| Jan-March | 243 | 10 | 216 | 10 | 231 | 10 | 206 | 10 | 197 | 9 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 4/5/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Hamilton | Willaura | Lismore | Winchelsea | Winchelsea | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 140 | 120 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 2.8 |
| 8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 3.5 |
| Apr-Nov GSR, wheat 15 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap canola 7 kg/ha/mm PAW=Plant available water | ||||||||||
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and
Lake Bolac (Fine sandy clay loam over heavy clay)
Variety: Bolac
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 120 mm PAW Capacity: 188 mm Available Soil N: 105 kg/ha
The Fiver
By Chris Sounness (DPI, Horsham)
TV Weather Presenters
The fiver took a while to germinate for this edition. I apologise. We are still coming to terms with being De-less. Chris Pittock has come on board to assist and while he is smarter, better looking, more competent, better organised (De-Anne if you do read this you know I am joking- aren’t I.........) it’s not the same and it’s different. This trouble with germination is the topic of the moment in Western Victoria. Everyone wants enough rain to get the crop started, but not too much to mean the paddock becomes bog holes. The crowd does not want to see lots of photo opportunities of three or four tractors lined up in a row, with the grey Fergy at the front, providing the final 7 HP to get the big red/green/blue beast out, which was buried to the axle or beyond.
Currently, driving around there are some paddocks with germination. Some newly emerging crops are preferring to highlight the blue in chlorophyll. Farmers are doing bankers’ hours when they would prefer to be working 14 plus hours a day. This hasten slowly to sowing is always frustrating as there are no clearing sales on at this time of year to distract. It does mean footy training gets better bar sales than expected. The outcome however, is good risk management being undertaken with hopefully some crops sown dry (but not too much) and the rest sown in a timely manner. Remember just because you can sow 200 hectares a day doesn’t mean it is prudent to do so.
Thank you all who have responded to The Break survey. While the survey has not been finalised quite yet, looking through some early responses, all of us involved are quite encouraged. The feedback has been quite complimentary. The highlight being the number of you who read this back page! - The number being far too many of you. I suppose I had better highlight the purpose for the page and that is to flag a few web links. Being 2011 I am going to go beyond the web. I am a web 2.0 type of guy and am all over this social media stuff. So for you who are big on Facebook and/or Twitter I will be highlighting people or companies to follow on Twitter and Facebook links. Watch out next, I will be talking about Apps - not that I have a phone that can access them.
First up is a site for all you avid WIN News and weather watchers. From all reports 6.57 pm is a very important time of the day for many of you. Jane Bunn comes on air and does her weather. Jane is a meteorologist and she puts out a daily web weather update. The weather update which focuses on Victoria is found here http://www.janesweather.com/?page_id=2 If you want to be cool you can follow Jane on Twitter @janesweather
Another scientist who has done his fair share of weather presenting is Rob Gell. Rob has many interests outside his weather presenting and has a fair few links on climate. http://www.robgell.com/ Rob also is on twitter http://twitter.com/#!/robgell
Daniel Gibson the Prime guy, is a lot less active on the web stuff, however he does have a Facebook fanclub
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=43524151728 and he is a tweeter @daniel_prime7
Mike Larkan the 10 News weather presenter has only a corporate presence, I could not fi nd a fan club and don’t think he is a tweeter. http://ten.com.au/ten-news-melbourne-mike-larkan.htm
Finally we swing to the ABC - (You can tell I cant afford Pay TV, no weather channel for me) Paul Higgins does the Victorian weather and for those who watch ABC News Breakfast, Vanessa O’Hanlon presents. It seems neither tweet, or do too many corporate gigs as there is only links through Wikipedia or some fan forums - none worthy of the fi ver.
Finally, a chance to express your views on which weather presenter is your must watch and why.
http://www.mediaspy.org/forum/index.php?/topic/9468-weather-presenters/
Here’s to a bit of rain being reported by them during winter and spring.
If you would like to receive this publication in an accessible This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by Disclaimer format (such as large print or audio) please call the Customer any process except in accordance with the provisions of the
This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Service Centre on: 136 186. Copyright Act 1968.
Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains Authorised by the Victorian Government, 1 Spring Street, is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your 110 Natimuk Rd
Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any Horsham Vic 3401, May 2011 error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you
ISSN 1833-719 relying on any information in this publication.
© The State of Victoria, 2011 For more information about DPI visit www.dpi.vic.gov.au or call the Customer Service Centre on 136 186
