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The Fast Break Newsletter: March 2011

Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions

Volume 6/Issue 3 - 31st March 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719

 

Past outlook (February 28th) Current outlook (March 31st)
PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool (weak La Niña)
INDIAN OCEAN: Slightly cool
RAINFALL: Average/slightly wetter
TEMPERATURE: No clear signal		 PACIFIC OCEAN: Slightly cool (not La Niña)
INDIAN OCEAN: Slightly cool/Average
RAINFALL: Average? No clear signal
TEMPERATURE: Average? No clear signal

30 Day Moving SOI

The SOI remains strongly positive indicating that the Walker Circulation is enhanced and that the pressure at Darwin is lower than at Tahiti (an indicator of La Niña conditions).

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

March 1

Upper Soil Moisture

Upper Soil Moisture (week ending 27/3/11). The relative top-soil moisture percentage shows dampness over much of Victoria.

©CSIRO AWAP Experimental

March 2

Lower Soil Moisture

Lower Soil Moisture (week ending 27/3/11). The relative sub-soil moisture percentage shows dampness over most of Victoria with the exception of the far western district and east Gippsland.

©CSIRO AWAP Experimental

March 3

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif

NOAA/NESDIS SST Anomaly (degrees C), 28/3/2011

The equatorial Pacific has continued to warm to slightly cool levels, but no longer at La Niña temperatures. The Pacific Ocean surface and undersea are leading the decay of the current La Niña event, with all atmospheric indicators yet to make major changes. The Coral Sea and Indian Ocean off WA are still warmer.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

March 4

OLR Totals

Victoria has been slightly cloudier for the last 30 days. There have been large amounts of cloud in tropical Australia. Cloudiness continues to remain below average near the dateline at the equator (brown), often an indicator for La Niña.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo

March 5

Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 28th February 2011

  Month of Run Forecast Months Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 Autumn Eastern Indian Ocean Autumn Rainfall Autumn Temperature
Coupled GCM’s System 3 ECMWF Europe Mar AMJ Slightly Cool (weak La Niña)

Slightly cool/neutral

 Slightly wetter? Slightly cooler?
POAMA BoM Australia Mar AMJ Neutral Neutral Slightly drier Slightly cooler, average Gipps
SINTEX JMA Japan Mar MAM Slightly cool (weak La Niña) Slightly cool Slightly wetter Slightly cooler
CFS03 NCEP USA Mar AMJ Slightly cool Slightly cool/neutral Average Slightly Cooler
GSM ECPC USA Mar AMJ   Slightly wetter E/average W Average
Ensemble UKMO UK Mar AMJ Slightly cool Slightly cool Average Average
IRI USA Mar AMJ Slightly cool Neutral Neutral Slightly Warmer
APCC Korea Experimental Mar AMJ   Average Average
Statistical BoM
Seasonal forecast		 Mar AMJ   Average, slightly drier SW Slightly Warmer, warmer SW
QDNRM Qld Australia Mar AMJ   Average  
ESS DAF WA Mar AMJ Slightly cool   May-Oct Average, slightly drier Gipps  
Legend
 
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions.
Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.
Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions.
Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.

 

  Fore-cast Months Winter Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 Winter Eastern Indian Ocean Winter Rainfall Winter Temp Comments Web Address
Coupled GCM’s System 3 ECMWF Europe JAS Slightly cool (weak La Niña)

Slightly warm, neutral

 Slightly wetter? Average? Victoria doesn't feature on their map of the world! link
POAMA BoM Australia JAS Slightly warm Neutral Slightly drier, average SW, W Gipps Slightly warmer, average Central, NE Experimental link
SINTEX JMA Japan JJA Slightly cool Neutral Slightly wetter Slightly cooler Experimental link
CFS03 NCEP USA JAS Neutral Slightly cool/ neutral Average Average   link
GSM ECPC USA JAS   Average Average   link
Ensemble UKMO UK MJA Slightly warm Neutral Average Average   link
IRI USA JAS Neutral Neutral Neutral Slightly cooler W/ average E   link
APCC Korea Experi-mental         Experimental summary for 20 CGC models. link
Statistical BoM Seasonal forecast         Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall link
QDNRM Qld Australia         5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI link
ESS DAF WA JAS Neutral       David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST. link
Legend
 
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions.
Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.
Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions.
Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.
 

 

Editors:
Dale Grey: Cobram DPI 03 5871 0600 dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au
Chris Sounness: Horsham DPI 03 5362 2111 chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au

Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains
110 Natimuk Rd
Horsham Vic 3401