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Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 28 June 2011

Coupled GCM’s						Ensembles			Statistical
	System 3 ECMWF Europe	POAMA BoM Australia	SINTEX JAMSTEC Japan	FS03 NCEP USA	GSM ECPC USA	UKMO UK	IRI USA	APCC Korea	BoM Seasonal Forecast	QDNRM Qld Australia	ESS DAF WA
Month of Run	June	June	June	June	June	June	June	June	June	June	June
Forecast Months	JAS	JAS	JAS	JAS	JAS	JAS	JAS	JAS	JAS	JAS	JAS
Winter Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4	Neutral	Neutral	Slightly cool	Neutral		Neutral	Neutral				Neutral
Winter Eastern Indian Ocean	Slightly cool	Neutral (weak IOD+)	Neutral	Slightly cool (IOD+)		Neutral	Slightly cool
Winter Rainfall	Average?	Slightly drier	Average	Average	Average	Average	Neutral	Average	Average, slightly drier Wimmera, SW, Alps	Average, slightly drier Central, NE	June-Oct Average, slightly drier Wimmera, SW, Alps
Winter Temperature	Slightly warmer?	Average S, slightly warmer N	Slightly cooler E, slightly warmer W	Average	Slightly warmer W, average E	Average	Slightly warmer	Average	Slightly warmer W, average E
Forecast Months	OND	OND	SON	OND	OND	SON	OND				OND
Spring Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4	Neutral	Neutral	Slightly coo	Neutral		Neutral	Neutral				Slightly coo
Spring Eastern Indian Ocean	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral	Slightly cool (weak IOD+)		Neutral	Slightly coo
Spring Rainfall	Slightly wetter N average S	Average	Average	Average	Average N, slightly wetter S	Average	Neutral, slightly wetter E Gipps
Spring Temperature	Average?	Average, slightly warmer central, NC, NE	Slightly cooler E, slightly warmer W	Average	Average	Slightly warmer, average NE, Gipps	Average, slightly warmer SW
Comments	Victoria doesn’t feature on their map of the world!	Experimental Recent change to POAMA 2	Experimental					Experimental summary for 20 CGC models.	Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall	5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI	David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST.
Web Address	http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/	http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/poama15/rs_map.htm	http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/	http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/	http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/GSM_seasons.html	http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks	http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?space= CommunityPage&control=SetCommunity&CommunityID=580&PageID=0	http://www.apcc21.org/en/services/apcc-operational-3-month-mme-prediction/forecasts/outlook/	http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml	http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/	http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/content/LWE/CLI/CLIMATE_INDEX.htm

Legend
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions. Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions. Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.	Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions. Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.