The Break Newsletter
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 4 June 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-711
This Issue
- State Round Up
- Seasonal Outlook
- SOI What?!
- Mallee
- Wimmera
- Northern
- South West/Gippsland
- The Fiver
Break out the boiled lollies
The recent rain had the feeling of those dark years through the mid naughties. The forecast moves from 4.2 mm to 6.3$mm and you get a bit excited. Rain is coming. Surprising how quickly you swing back to that defensive mindset when conditions are so different — heaps of subsoil moisture with many parts too wet. ‘Too dry’ is the sentiment for parts of the Wimmera, Mallee and North Central Catchements, with recent cracking frosts having 2008 written all over them. After 2010 when the rains made us feel we could afford ord to indulge in the more expensive chocolate it now feels, that with things drying out a bit, we might be back snacking on a more modest diet of boiled lollies.
This feeling that a dry season is approaching is not necessarily supported by the models which are generally around neutral conditions except for POAMA whose rainfall outlook is a bit bleak. While May was good for many in Northern Victoria, due to not getting too wet, crops are now struggling to break through the crusted sodic clay country. Cotyledons are becoming elongated and 15 mm is need to allow the plants to break into the sunlight. In the south, paddocks are becoming too wet with a few reports suggesting spring sowing is the way to go. Spring sowing makes crop area estimation difficult. Sowing intention in spring is hard to include in the estimates and, combined with the Mallee cropping system’s flexibility - and the recent swing to more canola- there have been plenty of questions raised when estimating this year’s statewide cropping area. Crop Estimates: (http://new.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/ grain-crops/grain-industry-profile/).
Pests and germination both affect estimates, but difficulty in controlling mice is a major problem. Baiting is being undertaken on a regular basis. The key message from many farmers is that every paddock needs monitoring as mice are moving about and just because control was undertaken in one paddock does not solve the problem. Slugs, snails and birds are also creating concern and challenges in 2011, with disease yet to start. It’ll be an interesting year with plenty of opportunity to make quick decisions. Maybe a tin of Castlemaine Rock on hand in the ute glove box can give you a sugar rush to feed the brain.
State Round Up-In the paddock
Mallee: May Decile (4-5)
Crops all sown. Recent rain has settled many new crops in nicely, but staggered germination in heavier soils in the south could use 10-20 mm rain. Mouse control continues. Some well established cereal crops damaged. Monitoring continues to be essential. Near ideal conditions otherwise.
Wimmera: May Decile (3-4)
Pulses only left to sow. Crops emerging with even look. Mice still active. Some farmers getting caught out by not monitoring prior to sowing and getting surprised by level of mice activity. 25 mm rain keenly sought to give the crops the start they deserve
Northern: May Decile (3-4)
NE-Sowing essentially completed. Majority of crops emerged. Moisture sufficient at present. Isolated mouse damage requiring baiting and the occasional resowing in both cereal and canola.
NC- Continuing below average rainfall for May and early June has seen surface soil moisture levels remain less than ideal in the northern plains. Some canola paddocks have had very poor germination and growers are contemplating resowing. Cereals have proved more resilient, but many crops are still patchy and beginning to turn that familiar blue colour.
South West/Gippsland: May Decile (3-6)
SW- Sowing is approx finished across the western districts with wheat and canola the main crops finished. Waterlogged paddocks are causing problems as growers struggle to finish sowing. Many paddocks will not be sown this autumn/winter due to the wet conditions. Most growers do have the option of sowing crops such as barley, canola andfield peas in the spring. Spring sown fodder crops could also be a popular option this season. Slugs are causing problems in many paddocks especially in canola. Many growers have reported baiting up to three times with mixed results.
Gipps- Wet. Ample moisture, with too much in places. Traralgon and Bairnsdale sowing held up. Most croppers have sown. Germination pretty good. Weeds such as ryegrass, capeweed and volunteers presenting an issue. Slugs problematic in some western areas, canola at risk at two leaf stage.
Dam Capacity www.gwmwater.org.au www.g-mwater.com.au
Grampians Wimmera Mallee: 57.6%
Goulburn-Murray: Dartmouth 57.6%, Hume 93.6%, Eildon 83.9%, Eppalock 97.2%
NSW: Eucumbene 33.6%, Burrinjuck 98%, Menindee 113%
Seasonal Outlook
Summary: Tropical Pacific neutral (8th June)
Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently near normal. Ocean temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness over the Pacific are all at neutral levels (i.e. neither La Niña nor El Niño).
International climate models predict continued warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, as the Pacific transitions away from the La Niña conditions that have dominated over the last 9-12 months. Neutral conditions are forecast as being the most likely later in the year.
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is currently neutral. A weakly positive IOD event has been forecast to develop during winter. In the past, positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the southeast, during the winter and spring seasons.
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
SOI: Is the air pressure diff erence between Tahiti and Darwin.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained stable over the last two weeks after falling rapidly during May to within neutral values. The latest (10 June) 30-day SOI value is +5.5.
SST: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
When compared with the previous month, SST anomalies for May have continued to warm across the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The SST anomaly map for May shows that anomalies along most of the equator were near normal for that month.
Sub-surface Sea Temperatures
www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, to the end of May, shows that the volume of cooler than normal sub-surface water has warmed to neutral values during the past month. Positive anomalies in the western Pacific remain in excess of 3 °C.
ENSO Forecast Models - POAMA
www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
The POAMA model suggests that central Pacific Ocean temperatures will continue to warm through the southern hemisphere winter, with the average of all thirty POAMA forecasts favouring neutral conditions during the winter months.
SOI What?!
By Chris Pittock and Dale Grey
So we’ve just come down from record high positive SOI, might have a little dead cat bounce, but we’re not really in a strong positive or negative SOI... so what does it mean?! Well, at this time of year it is a useful tool to see what might be coming over the next few months.
Now is a kind of “window of opportunity” for some parts of the state where the average SOI has some “skill”. The three graphs (right) use statistics to identify when the SOI can be useful. Which, if there’s a couple or more red dots above the line, says that the SOI has skill in predicting significant rainfall effects (either drier or wetter) than the median.
The fact that Ouyen is significant for a longer period means that the skill of a strong (+7 or -7) SOI is greater here than at Nhill, followed by little (skill) value obtained for Lismore. There is a general trend that the average SOI has more skill north of the ranges.
Exploring what it means for, say Ouyen, we can look at the history of what happened when we had either strong or neutral average SOI. The three graphs (below) indicate the historical likelihood of Aug-Oct rainfall being in the top third of wettest years (BLUE), the lowest third of rainfall years (RED), and the middle third of rainfall years (YELLOW).
So if we had a strongly positive SOI (like last year) we are likely to get a 55 percent chance of a significantly wet Aug-Oct (BLUE). For a neutral SOI (where we sit at present) we have 71 percent chance of a middling-to- wet Aug-Oct (BLUE plus YELLOW). If you’re a glass half empty sort, just read off the RED proportions.
So at present there’s almost a third of a chance of either a dry, moderate, or wet Aug-Oct period.
Which as Chris Sounness will boldly attest, is better to know than not! See The Fiver for some
insights on what to do with this outcome!
Mallee: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Mildura | Decile | Ouyen | Decile | Swan Hill | Decile | Birchip | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 129 | 10 | 131 | 10 | 135 | 10 | 181 | 10 |
| February | 193 | 10 | 98 | 10 | 46 | 9 | 39 | 9 |
| March | 122 | 10 | 37 | 9 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
| April | 12 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| May | 13 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 4 |
| Annual | 468 | 10 | 299 | 10 | 255 | 10 | 267 | 10 |
| GSR | 24 | 3 | 33 | 4 | 39 | 4 | 29 | 3 |
| Summer | 329 | HR | 148 | HR | 102 | 10 | 69 | 10 |
| HR - Highest on Record Decile 10 | ||||||||
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 4/5/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 fi nishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Mildura | Ouyen | Swan Hill | Birchip | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| Apr-Oct GSR, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water | ||||||||
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Swan Hill (Sandy Clay Loam)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 110 mm PAW Capacity: 167mm Available Soil N: 85kg/ha
Wimmera: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Nhill | Decile | Warracknabeal | Decile | Longerenong | Decile | Edenhope | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 107 | 10 | 166 | 10 | 160 | 10 | 110 | 10 |
| February | 25 | 7 | 57 | 9 | 69 | 10 | 66 | 10 |
| March | 46 | 10 | 38 | 9 | 20 | 6 | 69 | 9 |
| April | 10 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 35 | 6 |
| May | 18 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 37 | 4 |
| Annual | 206 | 10 | 297 | 10 | 286 | 10 | 318 | 10 |
| GSR | 28 | 1 | 36 | 3 | 37 | 3 | 73 | 4 |
| Summer | 81 | 10 | 103 | HR | 104 | HR | 171 | 10 |
| HR - Highest on Record Decile 10 | ||||||||
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 4/5/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Nhill | Warracknabeal | Longerenong | Edenhope | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 80 | 130 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| 5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 3.3 |
| 8 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 3.9 |
| Apr-Oct GSR, 15 kg/ha/mm for Edenhope, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water | ||||||||
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Longerenong (Murtoa Clay)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 160 mm PAW Capacity: 191 mm Available Soil N: 65 kg/ha
North East: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Boort | Decile | Elmore | Decile | Tungamah | Decile | Rutherglen | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 203 | 10 | 112 | 10 | 59 | 9 | 72 | 9 |
| February | 102 | 10 | 125 | 10 | 144 | 10 | 250 | 10 |
| March | 35 | 8 | 53 | 8 | 23 | 5 | 44 | 7 |
| April | 18 | 5 | 51 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 4 |
| May | 15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 31 | 4 |
| Annual | 373 | 10 | 355 | 10 | 271 | 9 | 421 | 10 |
| GSR | 33 | 3 | 65 | 5 | 46 | 2 | 55 | 3 |
| Summer | 156 | HR | 229 | 10 | 191 | 10 | 318 | 10 |
| HR - Highest on Record Decile 10 | ||||||||
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 4/5/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Boort | Elmore | Tungamah | Rutherglen | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 |
| 8 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 8.9 | 4.4 |
| Apr-Oct GSR, 20 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap. PAW=Plant available water | ||||||||
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Telford (Sandy clay loam over clay)
Variety: Gregory
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 60 mm PAW Capacity: 96mm Available Soil N: 100 kg/ha
South West and Gippsland: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by ‘Rainman’, developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Hamilton | Decile | Willaura | Decile | Lismore | Decile | Winchelsea | Decile | East Sale | Birchip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 124 | 10 | 126 | 10 | 146 | 10 | 140 | 10 | 39 | 5 |
| February | 41 | 8 | 45 | 8 | 58 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 97 | 10 |
| March | 78 | 9 | 48 | 9 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 61 | 8 |
| April | 68 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 47 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 54 | 7 |
| Annual | 358 | 10 | 299 | 10 | 323 | 10 | 264 | 9 | 278 | 7 |
| GSR | 113 | 6 | 83 | 6 | 92 | 5 | 58 | 3 | 81 | 5 |
| Summer | 187 | 10 | 123 | 10 | 131 | 10 | 88 | 10 | 208 | 9 |
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles (not including stored soil moisture). Run on 4/5/11. Yield is in t/ha for decile 1, 5 and 8 finishes to the season. Plant available water has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Hamilton | Willaura | Lismore | Winchelsea | East Sale | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 140 | 140 | 120 | 100 | 100 | |||||
| Decile | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 5 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| 8 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 |
| Apr-Nov GSR, wheat 15 kg/ha/mm, 110mm evap canola 7 kg/ha/mm PAW=Plant available water | ||||||||||
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and
Lake Bolac (Fine sandy clay loam over heavy clay)
Variety: Bolac
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 120 mm PAW Capacity: 188 mm Available Soil N: 105 kg/ha
The Fiver
By Chris Sounness (DPI, Horsham)
Frosts, falling SOI, weak fronts and no cutoff lows — all a bit disappointing really. Last year had set my expectations so high. I thought that rain was a regular occurrence and skies were cloudy at all times in winter. Maybe the 10 previous years are not an aberration, only last year was. I can give each of you a promise about the winter spring rainfall in 2011 — and yes you are hearing it first here, there are three possible scenarios. This year will be wetter than normal, drier than normal or normal. I absolutely give an iron clad guarantee on one of these three outcomes. I know it is not much but I think a bit of certainty is helpful.
This information, combined with a bit of knowledge on how much sub soil moisture you have as well as mineralised N, means that during winter some important input decisions can be made. If the slightly drier condition persists then it could be all set up for a great year if the plants can hit the subsoil moisture and the late spring frosts stay away. A great year being where the cheques received outweigh the money spent growing the damn stuff . With the high Aussie dollar, high input costs, greater disease and pest pressures and therefore higher risks, a great year is going to be appreciated by all and sundry.
The challenge is: beside your local agro, where do you go to get the written advice on these complex decisions where there is no right answer. While at times the decision making can seem formulaic and recipe based it is far from it being due to each paddock having its own challenges interwoven with the bigger farm issues faced.
A couple of places that might be worth investigating are the interstate crowds who put out newsletters at a price:
(Remember just because they are from a long way away does not make them an expert and each state has its own laws regarding legal chemical use. Sometimes it is good cross-referencing your local agro’s ideas with someone elses.)
| Rural Directions, a large SA consulting " rm, put out a newsletter that may be of interest: | http://www.ruraldirections.com/pages/services/subscription-services.php |
| In WA one newsletter that can be ordered over the web is the Agronomic Acumen letter produced by Wayne Smith. Wayne is a consultant based in Albany | http://www.agronomy.com.au/index.aspx |
| Crop Circle Consulting is based at Geraldton and also produces newsletters to members: | http://www.cropcircleconsulting.com.au/index.php?PageID=13 |
| For the rest of the advisory firms it is a bit hard to see if they offer a newsletter that you could subscribe to… | |
| The other area for subscriptions is some of the farmer groups in Victoria. Each of these groups offer their members timely advice: | |
| BCG have their technical bulletins as part of the package: | http://www.bcg.org.au/ |
| SFS also offer an newsletter aimed for growers in a higher rainfall zone: | http://www.sfs.org.au/ |
| In the northern Mallee, Mallee Sustainable farming is the source: | http://www.msfp.org.au/ |
| In North East Victoria Riverine Plains Inc spreads the knowledge across the border into NSW as well, they have a newsletter too: | http://riverineplains.com.au/ |
| Heading upstream along the Murray you start to notice hectares of irrigated crops and reach the realisation that VICC or Victorian irrigated cropping council is the place to go | http://www.icf.org.au/vicc.html |
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Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains
110 Natimuk Rd
Horsham Vic 3401, June 2011
© The State of Victoria, 2011
This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright Act 1968.
Authorised by the Victorian Government, 1 Spring Street,
Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
ISSN 1833-719
Disclaimer
This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.
For more information about DPI visit www.dpi.vic.gov.au or call the Customer Service Centre on 136 186
