| Coupled GCM’s | Ensembles | Statistical | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| System 3ECMWF Europe |
POAMA2 BoM Australia |
SINTEX JAMSTEC Japan |
CFS03 NCEP USA |
GSM ECPC USA |
UKMO UK | IRI USA | APCC Korea | BoM Seasonal Forecast | QDNRM Qld Australia | ESS DAF WA | |
| Wetter = increased chances of wetter than average conditions. Drier = increased chances of drier than average conditions. Warmer = increased chances of warmer than average conditions. Cooler = increased chances of cooler than average conditions. Neutral = the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal | |||||||||||
| Month of Run Forecast months |
Jan FMA |
Jan FMA |
Jan MAM |
Jan FMA |
Jan FMA |
Jan FMA |
Jan FMA |
Jan FMA |
Jan FMA |
Jan FMA |
Jan FMA |
| Summer Pacific Ocean NINO3.4 |
Slightly cool | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Slightly cool | ||||
| Summer Eastern Indian Ocean |
Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | |||||
| Summer Rainfall | Slightly wetter | Average E, slightly wetter W | Slightly wetter | Average, slightly wetter coast | Average | Average | Average | Slightly wetter | Average | Average | Average N, slightly drier S |
| Summer Temperature | Slightly cooler | Slightly cooler | Slightly cooler | Slightly cooler | Warmer W, slightly warmer E | Slightly cooler, average SW | Neutral | Neutral | Slightly warmer | ||
| Forecast months | MJJ | AMJ | JJA | MJJ | MJJ | AMJ | MJJ | MJJ | |||
| Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO3.4 |
Slightly warm | Slightly cool | Slightly cool | Slightly cool | Slightly cool | Slightly cool | Slightly cool | ||||
| Autumn Eastern Indian Ocean |
Neutral | Neutral | Slightly warm (Weakly IOD-) | Neutral | Slightly cool | Neutral | |||||
| Autumn Rainfall | Slightly wetter | Average | Slightly wetter | Average, slightly wetter coast | Average | Average | Neutral | ||||
| Autumn Temperature | Average | Average | Slightly cooler | Average | Average | Average SW, slightly cooler NE | Neutral | ||||
| Comments | Victoria doesn’t feature on their map of the world! |
Experimental | Experimental | Experimental summary for 20 CGC models. | Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall | David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST. | |||||
| Web Address | ECMWF | POAMA | JAMSTEC | NOAA | ECPC | Met Office | IRI | APCC | BOM | Queensland Government | Government of Western Australia |