The Fast Break Newsletter: January 2012
Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria
Volume 7/Issue 1 27 January 2012 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719
| Seasonal model forecasts for Victoria over the next three months: | |
|---|---|
| Current outlook (January 27) | Past outlook (December 28) |
|
PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool (La Nina) |
PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool (La Nina) |
 |
The SOI is strongly positive. The latest value is +12.2. This indicates that the air pressure conditions along the quator are consistent with a La Niña. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
 |
The Southern Annular Mode has spent much of January weakly positive. Over Summer this can increase the chance of rain in Eastern
Victoria. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_
 |
For the past 30 days high pressure over Australia has averaged at a close to normal position, but the pressure, particularly in
Eastern Victoria has been stronger.http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif
 |
The SST anomaly map shows the weakening La Niña cooling of the equatorial Pacifi c Ocean. The Coral Sea is still slightly warm but the Timor Sea is very warm in parts. This is increasing the moisture feed sources for Victoria.www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
 |
Victoria has seen slightly less cloud for the past 30 days, unlike WA. Cloud is less than normal at the dateline on the equator, indicative of La Niña. The Timor Sea shows more cloud orginating from evaporation in these warmer waters, but also as a result of an active burst of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in this region. The Coral Sea showed slightly less cloud for the month. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
| Editors | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dale Grey | Cobram DPI | 03 5871 0600 | dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au |
| Chris Sounness | Horsham DPI | 03 5362 2111 | chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au |
| Chris Pittock | Horsham DPI | 03 5362 2111 | chris.pittock@dpi.com.au |
Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions
Table: Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 27 January 2012
