The Fast Break Newsletter: January 2011
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 1 - 11th January 2010 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719
| Past Outlook (December 6th) | Current Outlook (January 11th) |
|---|---|
| PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral RAINFALL: Wetter to slightly wetter TEMPERATURE: No clear signal |
PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral RAINFALL: Slightly wetter to average TEMPERATURE: No clear signal |
30 Day Moving SOI
The SOI remains strongly positive indicating that the Walker Circulation is enhanced and that the pressure at Darwin is greater than at Tahiti (indicators for La Nina).
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Lower Soil Moisture
Lower Soil Moisture (week ending 9/1/11)
The relative lower soil moisture percentage for Victoria appears full in the north east and central areas, while most other grain growing regions remain average to above average.
NOAA/NESDIS SST Anomaly (degrees C), 20/12/2010
The equatorial Pacific continues to remain cooler than average (below La Nina thresholds). The sea north of Australia, along with the Tasman sea is currently warmer than average.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
OLR Totals
Cloudiness for Victoria has been average for the last 30 days. Cloudiness continues to remain below average near the dateline at the equator (brown) often an indicator for La Nina.
Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 11th January 2011
| Month of Run | Forecast Months | Summer Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 | Summer Eastern Indian Ocean | Summer Rainfall | Summer Temp | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coupled GCM’s | System 3 ECMWF Europe | Dec | JFM | Cool (La Nina) |
Slightly cool |
Wetter? | Average W, cooler E? |
| POAMA BoM Australia | Dec | JFM | Cool (La Nina) | Neutral | Slightly wetter | Slightly warmer, warmer Mallee, warmer east. | |
| SINTEX JMA Japan | Dec | DJF | Cool (La Nina) | Neutral | Slightly wetter | Cooler | |
| CFS03 NCEP USA | Jan | FMA | Cool (La Nina) | Slightly cool | Wetter | Cooler | |
| GSM ECPC USA | Jan | FMA | Average | Average | |||
| Ensemble | UKMO UK | Dec | JFM | Cool (La Nina) | Neutral | Slightly wetter W, wetter E | Average, slightly warmer west, slightly cooler NE |
| IRI USA | Jan | JFM | Cool (La Nina) | Slightly warm | Neutral | Neutral | |
| APCC Korea Experimental | Jan | JFM | Slightly wetter average south west | Average, Slightly warmer SW | |||
| Statistical | BoM Seasonal forecast | Dec | JFM | Average, Slightly wetter E, Gipps | Warmer | ||
| QDNRM Qld Australia | Dec | JFM | Average, slightly wetter NC, slightly drier SW, S Wimmera, Melb |
||||
| ESS DAF WA | Dec | DJF | Cool (La Nina) | N/A | |||
Legend |
|
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
|
Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions.
|
| Forecast Months | Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 | Autumn Eastern Indian Ocean | Autumn Rainfall | Autumn Temp | Comments | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coupled GCM's | System 3 ECMWF Europe | AMJ | Cool (La Nina) | Neutral | Neutral? | Slightly cool? | Victoria doesn’t feature on their map of the world! |
| POAMA BoM Australia | AMJ | Cool (La Nina) | Neutral | Average south, slightly drier north | Average, slightly warmer south | Experimental | |
| SINTEX JMA Japan | MAM | Cool (La Nina) | Slightly cool | Average, slightly wetter NE | Slightly cooler | Experimental | |
| CFS03 NCEP USA | MJJ | Cool (La Nina) | Average | Average | Cooler | ||
| GSM ECPC USA | MJJ | Average | Average | ||||
| Ensemble | UKMO UK | MAM | Cool (La Nina) | Neutral | Slightly wetter | Average, slightly cooler E, slightly warmer south west coast | |
| IRI USA | AMJ | Cool (La Nina) | Neutral | Neutral | Slightly warmer | ||
| APCC Korea Experimental | MAM | Average west, slightly wetter east | Cooler, slightly cooler SW | Experimental summary for 20 CGC models. | |||
| Statistical | BoM Seasonal forecast | Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall | |||||
| QDNRM Qld Australia | 5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI David | ||||||
| ESS DAF WA | MAM | Slightly cool | David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST. | ||||
Legend |
|
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
|
Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions.
|
| Editors: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dale Grey: | Cobram DPI | 03 5871 0600 | dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au |
| Chris Sounness: | Horsham DPI | 03 5362 2111 | chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au |
| De-Anne Price: | Horsham DPI | 03 5362 2111 | deanne.price@dpi.vic.gov.au |
Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains
110 Natimuk Rd
Horsham Vic 3401
