The Break Newsletter
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 1 January 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719
This Issue
- State Round Up
- Seasonal Outlook
- La Nina/IOD negative years
- Mallee
- Wimmera
- North East
- South West
Breaking Records
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Once again The Break team get to talk about climate drivers and breaking records. It’s been a big few years discussing record dry, record cold, record hot and now we have record wet! This year reinforces the idea that the oceans are big and powerful and have a huge impact on Australia’s climate and weather. 2010 was a very wet year for most of Victoria and it looks like 2011 is going to set records early. As you read this, I expect both January and summer rainfall to be the wettest on record, with many of you still a couple of weeks away from getting back on the header. It looks like the harvest finish date could make the record books. Some farmers will be making decisions about which paddocks and parts of paddocks to harvest, along with which parts to leave due to the effort required that doesn’t match the reward. A record year for both quality and yield has been impacted by the weather.
Extreme events are difficult to manage for all and sundry and I imagine for the next few months people will be doing a lot of refl ecting on what might have been. The reality of the situation is that Australia, while dry, is a place of extreme climatic events and Dorothy Mackellar and Hanrahan both observed something that sums up the last 10 years very well and they did their observations 100 years ago. Planning for an extreme event is a tough gig!
One piece of thinking that’s doing the rounds, is how to manage the farm in autumn to prepare for sowing? This autumn, farmers will be faced with areas where vehicles have been bogged making the ground uneven, paddocks with thick stubbles and in some cases crops that are all or partially not harvested, plus summer weed density not seen since the 70’s. Will 2011 be the year where tillage is a good option for ensuring paddocks get re-levelled and summer weeds are controlled effectively? For some paddocks, autumn burning may be a strategic tool of choice. In my opinion, when a farmer is responding to an extreme event, sometimes standard and preferred tools may not always be the best for the circumstances.
On a different matter, one which is exciting for the individual concerned but tinged with sadness for Dale, myself and all of De-Anne’s work colleagues at DPI, De is about to join BCG as a Research and Extension Officer. A job we know she is well qualified for and a great recognition of her skills. This, plus the recent announcement of her engagement has meant that December 2010 ended in a very exciting way.
State Round Up-In the paddock
Mallee: GSR Decile (5-10)
Harvest is three quarters finished to completed. Yields before the November rain were average to well above (2.5-5.0 t/ha) and of excellent quality, but following the rain test weight and falling numbers has been the issue for the majority of cereals. Some areas escaped quality decline and were unaffected by the weather, which is great.
Wimmera: GSR Decile (4-9)
Harvest is half to two thirds completed. Few crops were harvested before November. Lentil quality and yields were substantially affected by the weather. Surprisingly for many, a lot of malt barley has been delivered and wheat quality has varied. Yields have ranged from average to above. Time will only tell what the full impact of the heavy rain this week will be on unharvested crops.
North East: GSR Decile (9-10)
Harvest is about two thirds completed. Generally wheat has been downgraded and lodging has been a major issue. Mainly, above average yields have occurred. Some areas were impacted on by the floods.
South West: GSR Decile (3-10)
Most canola and barley has been harvested and some are close to 50 per cent of the way through their wheat harvest. Yields have been very good to excellent.
Dam Capacity
Grampians Wimmera Mallee 49.6%
Goulburn-Murray: Dartmouth 57%, Hume 93%, Eildon 76.6%, Eppalock 100%
NSW: Eucumbene 28.5%, Burrinjuck 99%, Menindee 107%
Congratulations De and all the best for your new endeavours and new phase of your life. The consequence is however, that The Break email will now be delivered from a new email address. The.Break@dpi.vic.gov.au Dale and I have our work cut out to keep up the standard and hopefully we can get someone to join the team to ensure the many rough edges are taken off the pre-edited newsletter.
Seasonal Outlook
Summary: La Niña persists (5 January)
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/A major La Niña event continues to affect the Pacific Basin. Long-range forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that the La Niña is likely to persist into the southern hemisphere autumn. All climate indicators of ENSO remain beyond La Niña thresholds.
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains much cooler than average for this time of year, with temperatures below the surface up to 4 °C below normal in central and eastern parts (comparable to the La Niña event of 1988). Trade winds are stronger than average, while cloud patterns continue to show a typical La Niña signature with suppressed cloudiness in tropical areas near the dateline. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value for December of +27 is the highest December SOI value on record, as well as being the highest value for any month since November 1973.
La Niña periods are generally associated with above normal winter, spring and summer rainfall, particularly over eastern and northern Australia. The current event has contributed to 2010 being Australia’s third wettest year on record, and Queensland having its wettest December on record. During La Niña periods, Tropical Cyclone occurrence for northern Australia is typically higher than normal during the cyclone season (November-April), while summer daytime temperatures are often below average, particularly in areas experiencing higher than normal rainfall.
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
SOI: Is the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.
The SOI is highly positive (at record levels in December) and has been consistently positive since April. The Walker Circulation is enhanced. This is indicative of La Nina conditions.
SST: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
SST’s in the central Pacific remain at La Nina thresholds. The negative IOD event has decayed and is now neutral in the Indian Ocean. Water surrounding Australia remains warmer than average.
Sub-surface Sea Temperatures
www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml
The sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomaly continues to remain cooler than average at depth. This supports a La Nina event.
ENSO Forecast Models - POAMA
www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
The POAMA model NINO 3.4 region predicts ocean temperatures to remain at La Nina thresholds well into 2011.
35 years since a La Nina and IOD negative coincided
By De Price (DPI) with input from Andrew Watkins and Catherine Ganter (BOM)
Following a decade of below average rainfall, few would have thought that 2010 would have delivered so much rainfall in the fashion that it did. 2010 was Australia’s third wettest year on record and Victoria’s wettest year since 1974. The period from July to December was Australia’s wettest ever.
The major driver of 2010’s (and early 2011) above average rainfall has been the strong La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Adding to this, especially during winter and spring was the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD-ve). The last time both a La Nina and IOD-ve combined was in 1975, 35 years ago. The 1975 spring rainfall has only been bettered by the spring rainfall of 1992.
The 2010/11 La Nina started to show its true colours around July, with the ocean and atmospheric drivers aligning and therefore reinforcing each other. Cooler than average surface and subsurface waters of the Pacific Ocean, sustained high values of the Southern Oscillation Index and a monthly December record (+27), strengthened easterly trade winds and strongly suppressed cloudiness around the dateline all signalled the establishment of a strong event.
The IOD-ve developed in early September, driven by warm water along the equator in the eastern Indian Ocean off Sumatra and to a less degree, cooler waters off Africa. An IOD-ve often gives rise to increased rainfall from northwest cloud bands travelling across Australia from the waters off the northwest W.A. coast, bringing good rainfall for many Victorian regions north of the divide.
The final major player in the big wet has been temperatures off Australia’s northern coasts. Sea surface temperatures in Australia’s tropical regions have been at or near record levels since September and this has contributed to record high humidity over Australia. With such high humidity, it was inevitable that when the right weather conditions occurred, significant rainfall would be the result.
The IOD-ve event has now dissipated as it always does at this time of year as the Australian monsoon switches the wind patterns around in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the La Nina remains and models suggest the La Nina will continue well into 2011.
Following, we have analysed the rainfall for the years when La Nina and IOD-ve coincide. The years were classified by Meyers et al. 2007 and adapted by Umenhoffer et al. 2009.
The BOM uses a different method of classifying La Nina and IOD-ve years and their years should also be referred to at:
La Nina years: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/
IOD negative years: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/negative/
The La Nina/IOD-ve year that does coincide for the two classification methods is 1975.
Rainfall (mm) and decile classifications for Victorian locations in years when La Nina and IOD-ve coincide
(Meyers et al. 2007 and adapted by Umenhoffer et al. 2009).
References:
Meyers, G.A., P.C. McIntosh, L. Pigot and M.J. Pook, 2007: The years of El Nino, La Nina and interactions with the tropical
Indian Ocean. J. Clim., 20, 2872-2880.
Ummenhofer, C.C., M.H. England, P.C. McIntosh, G.A. Meyers, M.J. Pook, J.S. Risbey, A. Sen Gupta and A.S. Taschetto, 2009:
What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036801.
Mallee: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2010 | Mildura | Decile | Ouyen | Decile | Swan Hill | Decile | Birchip | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 38 | 9 | 20 | 7 |
| February | 20 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| March | 36 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 73 | 10 | 37 | 8 |
| April | 19 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 28 | 7 | 34 | 8 |
| May | 54 | 9 | 44 | 8 | 61 | 8 | 23 | 4 |
| June | 16 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| July | 26 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 21 | 3 |
| August | 29 | 6 | 53 | 9 | 50 | 8 | 51 | 9 |
| September | 57 | 10 | 42 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 33 | 6 |
| October | 92 | 10 | 71 | 9 | 92 | 10 | 71 | 9 |
| November | 110 | 10 | 68 | 10 | 98 | 10 | 70 | 10 |
| December | 147 | 10 | 94 | 10 | 46 | 9 | 79 | 10 |
| Annual | 616 | 10 | 500 | 9 | 582 | 10 | 454 | 5 |
| GSR | 294 | 10 | 272 | 9 | 301 | 9 | 242 | 6 |
| Summer | 65 | 7 | 66 | 7 | 136 | 10 | 62 | 7 |
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Swan Hill (Sandy Clay Loam)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 5th May
Plant Available Water: 81mm
Grain Yield Outcome:
Wimmera: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2010 | Nhill | Decile | Warracknabeal | Decile | Longerenong | Decile | Edenhope | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 21 | 6 |
| February | 25 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 48 | 9 | 64 | 10 |
| March | 22 | 7 | 51 | 10 | 67 | 10 | 29 | 7 |
| April | 32 | 7 | 39 | 8 | 46 | 8 | 54 | 7 |
| May | 16 | 2 | 56 | 8 | 31 | 5 | 33 | 3 |
| June | 18 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 56 | 5 |
| July | 30 | 3 | 33 | 4 | 53 | 8 | 42 | 2 |
| August | 73 | 9 | 102 | 10 | 76 | 10 | 110 | 10 |
| September | 49 | 7 | 58 | 6 | 46 | 7 | 63 | 6 |
| October | 39 | 6 | 44 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 31 | 3 |
| November | 48 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 45 | 8 | 57 | 8 |
| December | 99 | 10 | 123 | 10 | 126 | 10 | 154 | 10 |
| Annual | 460 | 4 | 586 | 8 | 624 | 9 | 715 | 5 |
| GSR | 258 | 4 | 348 | 9 | 322 | 7 | 390 | 4 |
| Summer | 54 | 6 | 75 | 7 | 131 | 10 | 114 | 9 |
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Longerenong (Murtoa Clay)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 5th May
Plant Available Water: 70mm
Grain Yield Outcome:
North East: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2010 | Boort | Decile | Elmore | Decile | Tungamah | Decile | Rutherglen | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 10 | 2 | 32 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 34 | 6 |
| February | 40 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 87 | 10 | 121 | 10 |
| March | 81 | 10 | 53 | 8 | 60 | 9 | 77 | 10 |
| April | 34 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 24 | 4 |
| May | 40 | 6 | 34 | 5 | 57 | 7 | 51 | 6 |
| June | 16 | 2 | 32 | 4 | 32 | 3 | 28 | 3 |
| July | 34 | 6 | 67 | 8 | 42 | 5 | 64 | 7 |
| August | 98 | 10 | 104 | 10 | 76 | 9 | 81 | 8 |
| September | 27 | 5 | 55 | 8 | 50 | 7 | 59 | 7 |
| October | 129 | 10 | 86 | 9 | 135 | 10 | 179 | 10 |
| November | 111 | 10 | 80 | 10 | 60 | 8 | 86 | 9 |
| December | 103 | 10 | 119 | 10 | 116 | 10 | ||
| Annual | 746 | 10 | 639 | 776 | 9 | 921 | 10 | |
| GSR | 384 | 10 | 431 | 8 | 425 | 8 | 488 | 9 |
| Summer | 131 | 10 | 129 | 9 | 166 | 9 | 232 | 10 |
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Telford (Sandy clay loam over clay)
Variety: Chara
Sowing date: 5th May
Plant Available Water: 100mm
Grain Yield Outcome:
South West: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2010 | Hamilton | Decile | Willaura | Decile | Lismore | Decile | Rutherglen | Winchelsea |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 12 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 36 | 7 | 16 | 4 |
| February | 54 | 9 | 94 | 10 | 77 | 9 | 38 | 7 |
| March | 38 | 6 | 36 | 7 | 78 | 10 | 80 | 10 |
| April | 67 | 7 | 55 | 7 | 53 | 6 | 42 | 7 |
| May | 29 | 2 | 24 | 3 | 34 | 4 | 40 | 5 |
| June | 49 | 3 | 39 | 5 | 52 | 6 | 43 | 5 |
| July | 50 | 3 | 54 | 6 | 45 | 4 | 51 | 6 |
| August | 129 | 10 | 159 | 10 | 153 | 10 | 99 | 10 |
| September | 60 | 4 | 40 | 3 | 54 | 4 | 52 | 5 |
| October | 74 | 7 | 54 | 6 | 102 | 10 | 111 | 10 |
| November | 50 | 6 | 77 | 9 | 84 | 8 | 73 | 9 |
| December | 41 | 5 | 169 | 10 | 71 | 8 | 40 | 7 |
| Annual | 652 | 3 | 820 | 9 | 838 | 10 | 675 | 9 |
| GSR | 506 | 7 | 502 | 10 | 576 | 9 | 510 | 9 |
| Summer | 104 | 6 | 149 | 9 | 191 | 10 | 125 | 8 |
YIELD PROPHET www.yieldprophet.com.au/
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Lake Bolac (Fine sandy clay loam over heavy clay)
Variety: Kellalac
Sowing date: 5th May
Plant Available Water: 117mm
Grain Yield Outcome:
Editors:
DPI Horsham:
De-Anne Price & Chris Sounness
03 53622111
deanne.price@dpi.vic.gov.au
chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au
DPI Cobram:
Dale Grey
03 58710600
dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au
If you would like to receive this publication in an accessible format (such as large print or audio) please call the Customer Service Centre on: 136 186.
Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains
110 Natimuk Rd
Horsham Vic 3401, September 2010
