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You are here: Agriculture » About Agriculture » Newsletters and Updates » The Break Newsletter » February 2011 - Fast Break

The Fast Break Newsletter: February 2011

Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions

Volume 6/Issue 2 - 28th February 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719

 

Past outlook (January 11th)	Current outlook (February 21st)
PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral RAINFALL: Wetter to slightly wetter TEMPERATURE: No clear signal	PACIFIC OCEAN: Cool (weak La Niña) INDIAN OCEAN: Slightly cool RAINFALL: Average/slightly wetter TEMPERATURE: No clear signal

30 Day Moving SOI

The SOI remains strongly positive indicating that the Walker Circulation is enhanced and that the pressure at Darwin is lower than at Tahiti (an indicator of La Niña conditions).

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Air Pressure (MSLP last 30 days NOAA)

Air Presssure (MSLP last 30 days NOAA). Average (top), anomaly (below). Pressure has been lower through Indonesia, off WA and below Tasmania. Pressure was slightly higher off the coast of NSW and higher off SW WA.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif

NOAA/NESDIS SST Anomaly (degrees C), 4/4/2011

The equatorial Pacific continues to remain cooler than average (below La Niña thresholds), but is showing a warming trend. The Indian ocean off WA is warm, the Coral Sea is rewarming after being cooled by cyclone Yasi.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

OLR Totals

Victoria has been slightly cloudier for the last 30 days. There is large amounts of cloud off NW WA. Cloudiness continues to remain below average near the dateline at the equator (brown) often an indicator for La Niña.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo

Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 28th February 2011

		Month of Run	Forecast Months	Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4	Autumn Eastern Indian Ocean	Autumn Rainfall	Autumn Temperature
Coupled GCM’s	System 3 ECMWF Europe	Feb	MAM	Cool (weak La Niña)	Slightly cool	Slightly wetter?	Slightly cooler?
	POAMA BoM Australia	Feb	MAM	Slightly cool	Slightly cool	Average, slightly wetter E Gipps,	Average, slightly cooler N, slightly warmer Gipps
	SINTEX JMA Japan	Feb	MAM	Cool (La Niña)	Slightly cool	Average, wetter E, slightly drier SW	Cooler
	CFS03 NCEP USA	Feb	MAM	Cool (weak La Niña)	Slightly cool	Slightly Wetter	Slightly Cooler
	GSM ECPC USA	Feb	MAM			Slightly wetter E/average W	Slightly Warmer
Ensemble	UKMO UK	Feb	MAM	Cool (weak La Nina)	Slightly cool	Average	Average
	IRI USA	Feb	MAM	Cool (La Nina)	Slightly cool	Neutral	Neutral
	APCC Korea Experimental	Feb	MAM			Slightly wetter, Average SW	Average
Statistical	BoM Seasonal forecast	Feb	MAM			Average, slightly drier	Slightly Warmer
	QDNRM Qld Australia	Feb	MAM			Average, slightly drier
	ESS DAF WA	Feb	FMA	Cool (La Nina)		May-Oct Average, slightly drier Gipps

Legend
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions. Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions. Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.	Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions. Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.

 

		Fore-cast Months	Winter Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4	Winter Eastern Indian Ocean	Winter Rainfall	Winter Temp	Comments	Web Address
Coupled GCM’s	System 3 ECMWF Europe	JJA	Slightly cool	Slightly cool, neutral	Average?	Average?	Victoria doesn't feature on their map of the world!	link
	POAMA BoM Australia	JJA	Neutral	Neutral	Average, slightly wetter SW coast	Warmer W, slightly warmer E	Experimental	link
	SINTEX JMA Japan	JJA	Cool (La Niña)	Neutral	Average, slightly wetter coast	Average	Experimental	link
	CFS03 NCEP USA	JJA	Slightly cool	Neutral	Average	Average		link
	GSM ECPC USA	JJA			Average	Average		link
Ensemble	UKMO UK	MJJ	Slightly cool	Neutral	Average	Average		link
	IRI USA	JJA	Slightly cool	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral/ slightly warmer coast		link
	APCC Korea Experi-mental						Experimental summary for 20 CGC models.	link
Statistical	BoM Seasonal forecast						Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall	link
	QDNRM Qld Australia						5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI	link
	ESS DAF WA	JJA	Slightly cool				David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST.	link

Legend
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions. Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions. Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.	Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions. Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.

 

Editors:
Dale Grey	Cobram DPI	03 5871 0600	dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au
Chris Sounness	Horsham DPI	03 5362 2111	chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au

Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains
110 Natimuk Rd
Horsham Vic 3401