| Coupled GCM’s | Ensembles | Statistical | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| System 3 ECMWF Europe |
POAMA2 BoM Australia |
SINTEX JAMSTEC Japan |
CFS03 NCEP USA |
GSM ECPC USA |
UKMO UK |
IRI USA |
APCC Korea |
BoM Seasonal Forecast |
QDNRM Qld Australia |
ESS DAF WA |
|
| Month of Run Forecast months |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
Dec JFM |
| Summer Pacific Ocean NINO3.4 |
Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Slightly cool (weak La Nina) | ||||
| Summer Eastern Indian Ocean |
Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Slightly cool | Neutral | |||||
| Summer Rainfall | Average W, slightly wetter E, | Average | Average W, slightly wetter E, | Average | Average W, wetter E, | Average W, slightly wetter E, | Average | N/A | Average, slightly drier Mallee | Average, slightly wetter N Country, slightly drier SW | Slightly wetter |
| Summer Temperature | Slightly cooler | Average E, slightly cooler W | Average, slightly warmer SW | Average | Average | Cooler | Average | N/A | Warmer | ||
| Forecast months | AMJ | MAM | MAM | AMJ | AMJ | AMJ | AMJ | AMJ | |||
| Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO3.4 | Slightly cool | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Cool (La Nina) | Slightly cool | Cool (La Nina) | Slightly cool | ||||
| Autumn Eastern Indian Ocean | Neutral | Neutral | Slightly cool | Neutral | Slightly cool | Neutral | |||||
| Autumn Rainfall | Average | Average | Slightly wetter | Average | Average | Average | Average | ||||
| Autumn Temperature | Average | Average | Average | Average | Average | Slightly cooler | Average W, slightly warmer E | ||||
| Comments | Victoria doesn’t feature on their map of the world! | Experimental | Experimental | Experimental summary for 20 CGC models | Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall | 5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI | David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST. | ||||
| Web Address | http://www.ecmwf.int/ products/forecasts/d/ charts/seasonal/ forecast/ | http://poama.bom.gov.au/ experimental/poama15/ rs_map.htm | http://www.jamstec.go.jp/ frcgc/research/d1/iod/ | http://www.cpc.ncep. noaa.gov/products/ people/wwang/cfs_fcst/ | http://ecpc.ucsd. edu/projects/GSM_ seasons.html | http://www.metoffice. gov.uk/research/climate/ seasonal-to-decadal/ gpc-outlooks | http://portal.iri. columbia.edu/ portal/server. pt?space= Commu nityPage&control= SetCommunity&Co mmunityID=580&P ageID=0 | http://www. apcc21.org/en/ services/apccoperational-3month-mmeprediction/ forecasts/ outlook/ | http://www.bom.gov. au/climate/ahead/ rain_ahead.shtml | http://www. longpaddock.qld. gov.au/ | http://www. agric.wa.gov.au/ content/LWE/ CLI/CLIMATE_ INDEX.htm |