The Break Newsletter
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 10 December 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-711
This Issue
- State Round Up
- Seasonal Outlook
- Victoria’s Changing Crop Landscape
- Mallee
- Wimmera
- Northern
- South West/Gippsland
- The Fiver
Breaking Bread- to bring in the year of the farmer.
At this time of year everything seems flat out no matter where you are and what you do. Everyone is trying to get things finished, while entertaining or being entertained and ensuring any Christmas shopping that you have taken responsibility for, gets done. Sometimes it means choices are made and parties are missed due to needing to get things finished. Or things don’t get finished as your attachment to parts of your anatomy out weighs the pain of not having things finished, the classic catch 22 appears. I will reinforce again the not negotiable, ensure you buy the gifts that you are responsible for! Some things can’t be explained away.
One thing that is going to happen for most people is a family get together on the 25 December. Good times, good food and a great chance to reflect on the year. As you break bread, it is a chance if you are a farmer to comprehend just what a job you do in filling the many tables full of food. Besides the obvious bread, many of the components originated from a grain farm. The beer is based on the quality malt produced. More and more salads will be made from chick peas and lentils. Lamb will commonly have grazed stubbles or crops on mixed farms. Canola will be used as the oil of choice when needed. The less obvious but equally important, is all the grain that is used to produce eggs, feed the pigs for the ham and turkeys for the centre piece roast. A roast beef is mostly likely to be grain fed finished and the milk in your brandy custard will also likely have got a grain top up. The building blocks of Christmas all came from grain farmers.
I have also been hearing over harvest that many of the Wallup boys from north of Horsham feel they are qualified pineapple farmers and moving to FNQ may be the change to match the feeling.
As you move in to 2012 remember it is going to be the Year of the Farmer and anyone who tries to tell you that it is not deserved, suggest politely otherwise. It has been hard earned. Here is the video promoting the gig it is well worth a look.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_pb2fCoPmjw#!
http://www.yearofthefarmer.com.au/
C.S.
State Round Up - In the paddock
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Synchronised brolga launching, Rutherglen (photo D.Grey) |
Mallee: GSR Decile (2-3)
Nearly all growers finished harvest. Some summer weeds and self sown germinated which may require spraying. Canola 1 t/ha, good oil, wheat 2.4, barley 2.6 t/ha lentils 1 t/ha. Cereal quality was low in protein but sound. Keen to put the feet up.
Wimmera: GSR Decile (1-3)
Harvest 50-75 per cent finished. Canola and barley completed, full on wheat. Growers enjoying a good stint of weather. Canola yields variable, averaging 1.6 t/ha, oil high, autumn mice damage owered some yields. Barley 3.0 t/ha+ plenty of malt around. Early wheat yield suggest average to above average, protein mixed.
Lentils exceeding expectations.
Northern: GSR Decile (2-6)
NE- Canola harvest nearly finished with indicitive yields around 2.2 t/ha, but ranging from 1.5-3 t/ha. Cereals more than half finished with some people packing up shop, yields 3-5 t/ha with protein commonly below 10 per cent. Some weather downgrading.
NC- Irrigated canola finished, yields lower due to poor establishment, cereals in full swing, quality sound. Dryland canola finished at 0.6-2.2 t/ha, Cereals 50 per cent finished wheat 2.5-4 t/ha, protein low.
South West GSR Decile (1-6)
Canola 50 per cent harvested averaging 2-2.5 t/ha with good oil and cereals just started. Wheat harvest looks two weeks off, which is ten days earlier than normal.
Gippsland: GSR Decile (8)
Crops just starting to dry out again. Canola harvest starting with some windrow damage from storms. Early yields are around 2.5 t/ha. Some barley close to harvest but wheat is two weeks off. Summer crops of maize, sunflowers and sorghum are planted.
Dam Capacities www.gwmwater.org.au www.g-mwater.com.au
Grampians Wimmera Mallee: 66%, Rocklands 54%
Goulburn-Murray: Dartmouth 76.1%, Hume 89.9%, Eildon 97.4%, Eppalock 94.6%
NSW: Eucumbene 52%, Burrinjuck 92%, Menindee 104%
Seasonal Outlook
Summary: La Niña slowly builds in the tropical Pacific (9 November) www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
La Niña conditions have strengthened slightly over the past fortnight, with some, but not all, atmospheric and oceanic indicators intensifying. Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the event is likely to peak towards the end of 2011, and persist into early 2012. It is considered unlikely that the current La Niña will be as strong as the La Niña event of 2010-11. ENSO indicators continue to remain at or in excess of La Niña thresholds: the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average for this time of year, especially below the surface, while the trade winds, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness in the tropical Pacific are all at levels consistent with a La Niña event. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November-April).
SOI: Southern Oscillation Indexhttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ SOI: Is the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI spent most of October in significantly positive territory. The latest (14 Nov) 30-day SOI value is +9.4. This is indicating that the pressure patterns around the equator are behaving like we have a La Niña. |
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SST: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalieshttp://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have cooled further in October and have reached La Niña thresholds. The IOD+ weakened dramatically and disappeared through the month. The Timor sea has warmed a lot and the Coral Sea has warmed a bit. |
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Sub-surface Sea Temperatureswww.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml The sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, for October, show a large area of cooler water to depth across the eastern and central Pacific. Anomalies are more than 4oC cooler than average, providing a good source of cooler water for upwelling to the surface. This gives con" dence that the current La Niña event will hang around for a while. |
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ENSO Forecast - POAMA2 Modelhttp://poama.bom.gov.au/sst.shtml The ocean temperature at NINO3.4 is predicted to stay at the La Niña threshold until March, when it will return to neutral. |
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Victoria’s Changing Crop Landscape
Chris Pittock and Dale Grey, DPI
DPI collects and analyses land use and management data in the North East dryland area (682 paddocks bounded by the Broken and Murray Rivers and the Hume Highway), as well as in the northern Wimmera (876 paddocks traversing from Dimboola, through Nhill, Netherby, Kaniva, Jeparit, Brim and Sheep Hills). The data is collected in spring in both areas (since 1998 in the NE and 2006 in the Wimmera), as well as in autumn in the Wimmera (since 1996). In this article we explore the trends in the crop-to-pasture mix and crop type mix across the survey data collected in spring in the North East and Wimmera, and provide some insights on potential drivers of these changes.
Enterprise mix
The spring transects reveal how enterprise mix has changed through time: pastures declining in the North East from around seventy per cent of paddocks in 1998 to around 47 per cent in recent years. Coming out of the wet 1990’s, farmers have had more confidence and better agronomy to plant previously wet paddocks. Wimmera figures reflect the cropping dominant enterprise mix with pastures declining from around a quarter of paddocks to 13 per cent this year. The impact of drought and stock water availability have been an influence in this change in the Wimmera. Potential for countering this trend in the future comes from the completion of the Wimmera Mallee Pipeline Project: contributing to greater " exibility for farmers to retain or reintroduce stock to their enterprises. The world isn’t quite that simple though, as adequate fencing and other infrastructure is also a requirement, as is a desire to "like" sheep.
Figure One: Enterprise mix North East & Wimmera
Figure Two: Crop mix North East & Wimmera
Crop mix
This year in the North East 75 per cent of all crops were cereals, followed by just over 20 per cent canola with the balance being pulses. Delving into the cereal data, the share of wheat has increased among the cereals with triticale and oats declining. This may reflect the poorer yield performance of triticale in the drier years, marketability and/or pricing. The historical trend has been of a mainly stable cereal proportion of close to 80 per cent. Perhaps surprisingly the canola percentage has been very stable since 1999, indicating its importance to the rotation in this area. Legumes remain at very low levels.
The Wimmera crop mix has fluctuated more in the period since 2006, whereby cereals rose from 68 per cent to a relatively stable 80 per cent of crops in 2007-2009, but returning to 68 per cent in 2010 and 75 percent in 2011. The biggest mover in recent years in the Wimmera has been canola which was nearly dis-adopted in the north at less than one per cent of crops in 2009, but has now recovered to over nine per cent this year. The influence of a wet soil profile leading into sowing- reducing the perceived risk of an expensive crop failure- appears to be a major driver. The low growing season rainfall deciles for the Wimmera (1 through 3) supported this strategy with 2011 in mind. Stored moisture has been the insurance under many crops this year. Legumes peak in some years where pricing, disease, and climate give confidence to their planting.
Mallee: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Mildura | Decile | Ouyen | Decile | Swan Hill | Decile | Birchip | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 129 | 10 | 131 | 10 | 135 | 10 | 181 | 10 |
| Feb | 193 | 10 | 98 | 10 | 46 | 9 | 39 | 9 |
| Ma | 122 | 10 | 37 | 9 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
| Apr | 13 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| May | 14 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 4 |
| June | 11 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| July | 15 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 2 |
| Aug | 21 | 5 | 40 | 8 | 37 | 6 | 51 | 8 |
| Sept | 7 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 25 | 5 |
| Oct | 27 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 29 | 5 |
| Nov | 44 | 9 | 140 | 10 | 53 | 9 | 47 | 9 |
| Annual | 596 | 10 | 573 | 10 | 408 | 9 | 449 | 10 |
| GSR | 108 | 2 | 167 | 3 | 140 | 2 | 163 | 2 |
| Summer | 444 | HR | 266 | HR | 216 | 10 | 238 | 10 |
HR - Highest on Record Decile 10
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles. Run on 3/11/11. Plant available water at sowing has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Mildura | Ouyen | Swan Hill | Birchip | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| WUE | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 10 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 15 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 20 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
Apr - Oct GSR, 110mm evap. PAW = Plant available water
YIELD PROPHET
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
Swan Hill (Sandy Clay Loam)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 110 mm
PAW Capacity: 167mm
Available Soil N: 85 kg/ha
Wimmera: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Nhill | Decile | Warracknabeal | Decile | Longerenong | Decile | Edenhope | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 107 | 10 | 166 | 10 | 160 | 10 | 110 | 10 |
| Feb | 25 | 7 | 57 | 9 | 69 | 10 | 66 | 10 |
| Mar | 46 | 10 | 38 | 9 | 20 | 6 | 69 | 9 |
| Apr | 10 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 35 | 6 |
| May | 18 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 37 | 4 |
| June | 18 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 47 | 4 |
| July | 39 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 53 | 8 | 75 | 6 |
| Aug | 41 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 45 | 6 | 76 | 6 |
| Sept | 20 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 37 | 2 |
| Oct | 35 | 5 | 37 | 6 | 35 | 5 | 39 | 4 |
| Nov | 57 | 9 | 41 | 8 | 54 | 9 | 24 | 4 |
| Annual | 416 | 8 | 474 | 10 | 505 | 9 | 615 | 8 |
| GSR | 181 | 2 | 172 | 1 | 202 | 2 | 346 | 3 |
| Summer | 178 | 10 | 261 | HR | 249 | HR | 245 | 10 |
HR - Highest on Record Decile 10
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use effciency and prediction of future rain based on deciles. Run on 3/11/11. Plant available water at sowing has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Nhill | Warracknabeal | Longerenong | Edenhope | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 80 | 130 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| WUE | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 10 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 15 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| 20 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 |
Apr - Oct GSR, 110mm evap. PAW = Plant available water
YIELD PROPHET
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.Longerenong (Murtoa Clay)
Variety: Yitpi
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 160 mm
PAW Capacity: 191 mm
Available Soil N: 65 kg/ha
Northern: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Boort | Decile | Elmore | Decile | Tungamah | Decile | Rutherglen | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 203 | 10 | 112 | 10 | 59 | 9 | 72 | 9 |
| Feb | 102 | 10 | 125 | 10 | 144 | 10 | 250 | 10 |
| Mar | 35 | 8 | 53 | 8 | 23 | 5 | 44 | 7 |
| Apr | 18 | 5 | 51 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 4 |
| May | 15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 31 | 4 |
| June | 13 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 27 | 2 |
| July | 52 | 9 | 43 | 5 | 54 | 7 | 61 | 6 |
| Aug | 57 | 9 | 60 | 7 | 42 | 5 | 68 | 6 |
| Sept | 62 | 9 | 37 | 5 | 36 | 5 | 54 | 6 |
| Oct | 14 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 29 | 3 |
| Nov | 53 | 8 | 67 | 9 | 54 | 8 | 79 | 9 |
| Annual | 624 | 10 | 586 | 9 | 499 | 6 | 738 | 9 |
| GSR | 230 | 6 | 228 | 3 | 219 | 2 | 294 | 3 |
| Summer | 340 | HR | 290 | 10 | 226 | 10 | 366 | 10 |
HR - Highest on Record Decile 10
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles. Run on 3/11/11. Plant available water at sowing has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Boort | Elmore | Tungamah | Rutherglen | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | ||||
| WUE | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 10 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 15 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 20 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 |
Apr - Oct GSR, 110mm evap. PAW = Plant available water
YIELD PROPHET
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.
South West and Gippsland: Output from Decision Support Tools
Rainfall Deciles
Deciles generated by 'Rainman', developed by QLD DEEDI
| Month 2011 | Hamilton | Decile | Willaura | Decile | Lismore | Decile | Winchelsea | Decile | East Sale | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 124 | 10 | 126 | 10 | 146 | 10 | 140 | 10 | 39 | 5 |
| Feb | 41 | 8 | 42 | 8 | 58 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 97 | 10 |
| Mar | 78 | 9 | 48 | 9 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 61 | 8 |
| Apr | 68 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 47 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 50 | 7 |
| May | 45 | 3 | 51 | 6 | 46 | 5 | 36 | 4 | 31 | 5 |
| June | 57 | 4 | 30 | 3 | 41 | 4 | 60 | 8 | 24 | 3 |
| July | 88 | 7 | 52 | 6 | 51 | 5 | 70 | 9 | 70 | 9 |
| Aug | 57 | 3 | 30 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 47 | 7 |
| Sept | 27 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 45 | 5 | 56 | 7 |
| Oct | 66 | 6 | 41 | 4 | 63 | 6 | 54 | 6 | 60 | 6 |
| Nov | 35 | 4 | 26 | 3 | 44 | 5 | 82 | 9 | 121 | 10 |
| Annual | 686 | 7 | 500 | 6 | 581 | 6 | 607 | 9 | 656 | 8 |
| GSR | 444 | 2 | 283 | 1 | 350 | 2 | 401 | 6 | 459 | 8 |
| Summer | 243 | 10 | 216 | 10 | 231 | 10 | 206 | 10 | 197 | 9 |
HR - Highest on Record Decile 10
PYCAL
PYCAL is a yield prediction tool that uses rainfall to date, water use efficiency and prediction of future rain based on deciles. Run on 3/11/11. Plant available water at sowing has been estimated from a mix of modelled and measured data.
| Hamilton | Willaura | Lismore | Winchelsea | East Sale | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAW mm | 140 | 140 | 120 | 100 | 100 | |||||
| WUE | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Canola |
| 10 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| 15 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| 20 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 3.1 |
YIELD PROPHET
Yield Prophet is a decision support tool that uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions.Lake Bolac (Fine sandy clay loam over heavy clay)
Variety: Bolac
Sowing date: 10th May
Plant Available Water: 120 mm
PAW Capacity: 188 mm
Available Soil N: 105 kg/ha
The Fiver
By Chris Sounness (DPI, Horsham)
If al the predictions are right 2012 is going to be the year of the agricultural app. Everyone is working on them and the guarantee is some are going to be absolutely great, others ho hum. Some dogs wasting screen space and then some that you know you want but are yet to find a use. The questions is: which ones to download? Before that however I suggest you spend some time reading the instructions of your new Christmas present, that tablet you desired so much. Either that or get a niece or nephew who has just finished school to show you how to use it and how powerful it can be. Don’t only learn two features and then think it is an overpriced pocket calculator. Embrace the technology and remember reboot means you can kick the machine’s butt anytime it gives cheek. Also, remember there are differences between Android and Apple and the software does not transfer across. Sometimes the apps are only Apple or Android but often they are made for both platforms. Now onto the apps, first a caveat- I can’t speak with authority here as I don’ have Apple, or Android access for my mobile computing (Blackberry instead) so you will have to trust me, like I am trusting others on the quality.
First off , GRDC have just got the apps underway with their app page just being launched. First up is the Weeds ute guide. When thinking back, this was the first in the ute guide series and that is the backbone of most agronomists toolkit. The GRDC sets the expectation bar high that it will deliver.
http://www.grdc.com.au/director/events/apps
The weather apps are numerous and have a huge range in quality and likelihood that your location exists in their network of sites. Accuweather seems the most commonly available preinstalled app on many people’s machines. It is pretty good,however I tend to read the forecast with a pinch of salt, although I may be judging it very hard as it is US based.
http://www.accuweather.com/downloads.asp
Personally I much prefer the cut of Weatherzone’s jib, being Australian based and free of charge has its attractions.
http://apps.weatherzone.com.au/
The weather channel, which many of you subscribe to and utilise to ensure the AFL is tax deductible, (That’s not true - just a harsh and false allegation) has some good quality apps for both Android and Apple.
http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-weather-channel/id295646461?mt=8
Finally watch out next year for at least a couple of apps coming from DPI focussing on the grains industry. Pretty sure a "Doggy box" may become available, packaging up the great work based around the climate dogs. One glance should show which dogs are behaving and which ones have broken out of the cage, raising merry hell and sniffng around the district. It may also include an ability to upscale your local weather and climate and let you see how where you live is specifically affected by each dog, this is still in the concept phase.
The other app we are working on has led us to lock a couple of people in a small room to pedal really fast, allowing us to create enough electricity to transfer hand written equations from chalk boards into an app based around our cereal disease guide. Hopefully in the first quarter of 2012 it will become available- watch this space.
Next year in The Fiver I will feature web sites, social media links and more agricultural apps. Who would have thought all this technology in the palm of each of our hands? I can still remember Dad starting the generator in the afternoon to give us electricity. We have come a long way The questions are where have we got to? And where are we going? I just hope talking heads did not have it right with their song from 1985.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKqzayNo4Dk
Anyway I am sure there is an app that will tell us where we are going!!! Well not yet but it seems Google are working on it.
http://code.google.com/p/where-are-we-going/
Enjoy the New Year and catch up with you all in February.
