The Fast Break Newsletter: August 2011
Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions
Volume 6/Issue 8 - 30 August 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719
| Seasonal model forecasts for Victoria over the next three months: | |
|---|---|
| Current outlook (August 30) | Past outlook (July 27) |
| PACIFIC OCEAN: Neutral/slightly cool INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral (weak IOD positive) RAINFALL: Average TEMPERATURE: Average/Slightly warmer |
PACIFIC OCEAN: Neutral INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral/slightly cool RAINFALL: Average TEMPERATURE: Average |
30 Day Moving SOI
The SOI has fallen in the past two weeks, remaining weakly positive. The latest (31 August) 30-day SOI value is +2.1. Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event.
The Southern Annular Mode was strongly negative for much of August. Indicating frontal systems were closer to Victoria.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml
High Pressures over Victoria have averaged out at a close to normal latitude in the last 30 days. Stronger pressure existed in the Tasman sea providing blocking conditions.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif
The SST anomaly map for August shows that most of the equator was near normal. NINO 3 and 3.4 are showing a cooling trend. There has been some cooling in the Indian Ocean off the island of Java.
www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
Victoria has seen average cloud for the past 30 days. Cloud is normal near the dateline at the equator, signifying neutral conditions. There has been a signifi cant decrease in cloud off the island of Sumatra.
