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The Fast Break Newsletter: April 2011

Seasonal climate and risk information for Victorian cropping regions

Volume 6/Issue 4 - 27th April 2011 | www.dpi.vic.gov.au/climaterisk | ISSN 1833-719

 

Current outlook (April 27th) Past outlook (March 31st)
PACIFIC OCEAN: No clear signal
INDIAN OCEAN: Neutral
RAINFALL: No clear signal
TEMPERATURE: Average/Slightly warmer		 PACIFIC OCEAN: Slightly cool (not La Niña)
INDIAN OCEAN: Slightly cool/Average
RAINFALL: Average? No clear signal
TEMPERATURE: Average? No clear signal

30 Day Moving SOI

The SOI remains strongly positive indicating that the Walker Circulation is enhanced and that the pressure at Darwin is lower than at Tahiti (an indicator of La Niña conditions).

March 1

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Upper Soil Moisture

Upper Soil Moisture (week ending 24/4/11). The relative top-soil moisture percentage shows much of northern Victoria is normal for this time of the year.

©CSIRO AWAP Experimental

March 2

http://www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Air Presssure

Air Presssure (MSLP last 30 days NOAA). High pressure over Victoria has been at a close to normal latitude for April, but has been higher than average pressure.

March 3

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.gif

NOAA/NESDIS SST Anomaly (degrees C)

The equatorial Pacifi c Ocean SST’s have continued to warm to slightly cool levels classified as neutral. The Coral Sea and Indian Ocean off WA are still warmer. The Timor Sea has cooled. All the atmospheric indicators are still yet to make major changes.

 

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

OLR Totals

Victoria has seen slightly less cloud for the last 30 days, WA has seen less cloud. Large amounts of cloud remain in tropical Australia. Cloudiness continues to remain below average near the dateline at the equator (brown), an indicator for La Niña.

March 5

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo

Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions 27th April 2011

 
  Month of Run Forecast Months Winter Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 Winter Eastern Indian Ocean Winter Rainfall Winter Temperature
Coupled GCM’s System 3 ECMWF Europe Apr MJJ Slightly cool

Slightly cool/
neutral

 Average? Average?
POAMA BoM Australia Apr MJJ Slightly warm Neutral Slightly drier Average/ slightly
warmer Mallee, Gipps
SINTEX JMA Japan Apr MJJ Slightly cool Neutral Slightly wetter Slightly warmer
CFS03 NCEP USA Apr MJJ Neutral Slightly cool/
neutral		 Slightly drier N/
Average S		 Average
GSM ECPC USA Apr MJJ
  Average Average
Ensemble UKMO UK Apr MJJ Neutral Neutral/
slightly cool		 Slightly drier/
Average Mallee		 Average
IRI USA Apr MJJ Slightly cool Neutral Neutral Slightly Warmer
APCC Korea Experimental Apr MJJ
  Average Average
Statistical BoM
Seasonal forecast		 Apr MJJ
  Neutral,slightly
drier SW		 Warmer
QDNRM Qld Australia Apr MJJ
  Neutral/
slightly
wetter NC,
Wimmera.
Mallee		  
ESS DAF WA Apr MJJ Neutral   May-Oct
Average,
slightly
drier Gipps		  
Legend
 
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions.
Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.
Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions.
Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.

 

  Fore-cast Months Spring Pacific Ocean NINO 3.4 Spring Eastern Indian Ocean Spring Rainfall Spring Temp Comments Web Address
Coupled GCM’s System 3 ECMWF Europe ASO Slightly cool

Neutral

 Slightly wetter? Average? Victoria doesn't feature on their map of the world! link
POAMA BoM Australia ASO Slightly warm
(weak El Niño)		 Neutral
(weak IOD+)		 Slightly drier Average S/ slightly
warmer N		 Experimental link
SINTEX JMA Japan ASO Slightly cool
(weak La Niña)		 Slightly warm
(weak IOD-)		 Slightly wetter Slightly cooler Experimental link
CFS03 NCEP USA ASO Neutral Neutral Average Average   link
GSM ECPC USA ASO
  Average Average   link
Ensemble UKMO UK JAS Neutral Neutral Average Average   link
IRI USA ASO Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral   link
APCC Korea Experi-mental  
      Experimental summary for 20 CGC models. link
Statistical BoM Seasonal forecast  
      Comparison between current SST’s and historic rainfall link
QDNRM Qld Australia  
      5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI link
ESS DAF WA ASO Slightly
cool		       David Stephens and team. NINO 3 SST. link
Legend
 
Wetter: increased chances of wetter than average conditions.
Warmer: increased chances of warmer than average conditions.
Neutral: the chances of wet, average and dry or warm, average and cool are equal.
Drier: increased chances of drier than average conditions.
Cooler: increased chances of cooler than average conditions.
 

 

Editors:
Dale Grey: Cobram DPI 03 5871 0600 dale.grey@dpi.vic.gov.au
Chris Sounness: Horsham DPI 03 5362 2111 chris.sounness@dpi.vic.gov.au

Published by the Department of Primary Industries, Grains
110 Natimuk Rd
Horsham Vic 3401