Milking the Weather - September 2010 Edition
Spring seasonal preparation
Greg O’Brien, DPI Ellinbank and Tom Farran, DPI Tatura
There are positive signs for spring growth. Soil moisture is good for all Victorian dairy districts. Moisture to depth provides valuable reserves to support spring growth. La Niña conditions continue. The temperature outlook favours early spring growth but could hinder late spring growth. A positive outlook does not always guarantee favourable growing conditions.
Rainfall outlook
The rainfall outlook for the coming three months is shown in the diagram below. The map below shows the 75 per cent chance of exceeding rainfall totals. For the following locations, there is currently a 75 per cent chance of at least 139 mm at Warrnambool, 216 mm at Leongatha, Cohuna 57 mm and 213 mm at Mita Mita (from BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/rainfall/exceedance.shtml). This is an alternative way to view the three month outlook compared to the chance of exceeding median rainfall.
Temperature outlook
The chance of average spring maximum temperatures exceeding the long-term median maximum temperature is 60-65per cent over south-eastern South Australia and all of Victoria.
Irrigation Outlook
This is the first occasion since 2005/06 that all northern Victorian water systems have had a non-zero opening seasonal allocation. Glenmaggie was 93 per cent full on August 30 with above average storage levels for this time of year.
The benefits of the recent rain will be felt for weeks to come as streams will continue to flow because of the wet catchments. It's an encouraging sign, as we move into spring.
Grain and Hay Outlook
The rapid run-up in grain prices over the last month has eased and stabilised. Market sentiment has changed and we no longer have a guaranteed global grain surplus situation for 2010/11. By no means do we have a shortage like the one that occurred in 2007/08, but there is now real caution as to what could happen if any further supply shocks occur.
The rapid rise in some of the feed grades such as barley, may mean that other grains, such as wheat, may provide better value for money.
There are high volumes of low quality hay available for fibre to select from. There is an increasing gap in prices for higher quality hay compared to lower quality of the same type. It is expected that across most cereal crop producing regions, the amount cut for hay will be significantly less than last year, as hay prices are less enticing and grain prices are rising steadily. This does not take into account the ‘locust effect’.
A detailed hay and grain report can be found at http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au
In summary
At this stage most indicators are favourable for spring growth in Victorian dairy districts. Low quality hays are readily available. Consider strategies for managing grain and high quality hay price movements. Also factor in the availability of cheap low quality fodder when deciding when to cut paddocks for hay and silage; it may be more economical to sacrifice yields for a higher quality product.
