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Milking the Weather - September 2010 Edition

Seasonal Outlook

Summary as of 1 September, 2010

La Niña strengthens in the Pacific

A La Niña is well established in the Pacific Ocean and a majority of computer models suggest La Niña will persist until at least early 2011.

The central Pacific Ocean has cooled significantly over the past two weeks and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains positive, well above La Niña thresholds.

The cloudiness over central Pacific remains suppressed and trade winds continue to be stronger than the long term average.

Recent values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index, combined with forecasts from the Bureau’s POAMA model, suggest that a negative IOD event may have commenced in the Indian Ocean (see page 3 for a refresher about the IOD).

30 Day Moving SOI
30 Day Moving SOI: The southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been consistently positive, remaining above La Niña thresholds.
 
Nino SST Plumes
Above: The blue line indicates the POAMA model forecast of central pacific SSTs is to remain cooler than average until the end of the year. This is consistent with La Niña conditions.
 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/