Milking the Weather - March 2011 Edition
2010 – A year to remember
Ashley Clacy, DPI Ellinbank
It has been the wettest year since 1974, breaking a 13 year run of average to below average rainfall, but also bringing with it a whole new set of issues to face.
In general the first half of the year was tracking fairly well for most regions, with some parts of the state recording several wet months. As the forecast La Niña conditions strengthened in the Pacific during winter we were seeing above average rainfall for the north, north east and the south west of the state.
The effects of the La Niña were enhanced in late winter and spring with the formation of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These systems brought tropical moisture to Victoria from September to December and led to above average rainfall across the state, but particularly in regions north of the divide.
Below is a summary of the annual rainfall and growing season rainfall (GSR) for dairy regions across Victoria.
| South West deciles for 2010 *Growing Season Rainfall (GSR) April to October |
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| Month | Warrnambool (mm) | Decile | Terang (mm) | Decile | Birregurra (mm) | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual | 944.4 | 10 | 935.2 | 9 | 749.2 | 8 |
| GSR* | 618.2 | 9 | 622.2 | 8 | 513 | 8 |
Table 1 South West summary 2010: With a good autumn break, pasture growth in the south west was excellent at the start of the season. As the season progressed with average to above average rainfall in the winter months, pugging and some flood damage created a few challenges for south west farmers. Spring brought another set of dilemmas for farmers as cutting paddocks for silage was made difficult due to the winter rainfall and continued spring rain. What silage and hay has been harvested is of poorer quality than previous seasons, however forage crops sown later have yielded very well. Summer also proved interesting with floods on a number of river systems causing losses of pasture and some hay and silage. However farms that are not on river systems have had an excellent growing season this summer.
| Gippsland deciles for 2010 *Growing Season Rainfall (GSR) April to October |
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| Month | Drouin (mm) | Decile | Leongatha (mm) | Decile | Yarram (mm) | Decile | Maffra (mm) | Decile | Orbost (mm) | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual | 1112.1 | 8 | 990.5 | 6 | 665.8 | 4 | 566.1 | 5 | 824.4 | 5 |
| GSR* | 671.1 | 6 | 594.6 | 5 | 344.8 | 2 | 238.8 | 2 | 149.2 | 4 |
Table 2 Gippsland summary 2010: The season started with good summer rains and continued into a good autumn for west and south Gippsland with variable rainfall in the east. The winter months varied with some very heavy rainfall for August which also resulted in Lake Glenmaggie spilling. Farmers in west and south Gippsland had a tough winter-spring with very wet soils restricting fodder conservation. Spring conditions were good throughout most of Gippsland with excellent pasture growth leading into a mild summer.
| Northern Victoria deciles for 2010 *Growing Season Rainfall (GSR) April to October |
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| Month | Kerang (mm) | Decile | Rochester (mm) | Decile | Shepparton (mm) | Decile | Tallangatta (mm) | Decile | Corryong (mm) | Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual | 662.1 | 10 | 784.2 | 10 | 770.6 | 10 | 1041.9 | 9 | 1265.1 | Highest on record |
| GSR* | 396.7 | 10 | 433 | 10 | 393 | 7 | 627.2 | 7 | 728.8 | 10 |
Table 3 Northern Victoria summary 2010: A good to excellent autumn rewarded those who planted early, this progressed into a wet and mild winter with many farmers having a large amount of forage. There was an opportunity to conserve some silage in late September, however this was short-lived and many were caught out as frequent rain and flooding made conserving fodder nearly impossible. This has resulted in large amounts of low quality fodder. Water storages have recovered resulting in good allocations for irrigators in all systems. Seasonal conditions combined with a positive outlook for milk price have farmers more confident about their future than they have been for many years.
