Milking the Weather - June 2011 Edition
Seasonal update and outlook
Summary as of 10 June, 2011 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Pacific Neutral
- Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently near normal. Ocean temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness over the Pacific are all at neutral levels (neither La Niña nor El Niño).
- Many international climate models are predicting neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean through winter and spring. A few models suggest a chance of warmer than normal conditions for spring (weak El Niño potentially arising).
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. A number of models are predicting a weak positive IOD event for winter/spring. If this was to eventuate there would be higher chance of drier conditions.
Figure 1. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell rapidly in May which is one indicator of neutral conditions.
Figure 2. The equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures have warmed to neutral levels. The Timor Sea above Australia is cooler.
Seasonal model forecasts for Victoria
(from The Fast Break May 2011)
Current outlook for Winter (JJA)
Pacific Ocean: No clear signal
Indian Ocean: Neutral/weak IOD+
Rainfall: Average
Temperature: Average/slightly warmer
Current outlook for Spring (SON)
Pacific Ocean: No clear signal
Indian Ocean: Neutral/weak IOD+
Rainfall: No clear signal
Temperature: Average
This forecast is a summary of a number of global climate models surveyed by the Fast Break. Forecasts of global climate models develop greater skill during winter.
Why is this outlook different to the three month outlook on the BOM website?
Refer back to the September 2010 Issue 3 Page 2 at www.dairyextension.com.au (type Milking the Weather into the search bar) to find out why.
Cropping state round up
All crops in the Mallee have been sown but those in the heavier soils in the southern region could use 10-20mm rain. Mouse control continues in the Wimmera and Mallee as some well established cereal crops have been damaged, making monitoring essential.
For the north central region, below average rainfall for May and early June has seen surface soil moisture levels remain less than ideal in the northern plains. Some canola paddocks have had very poor germination and growers are contemplating resowing. Cereals have proved more resilient, but many crops are still patchy and beginning to turn that familiar blue colour indicating lack of soil moisture.
Wet and water logged soils in Gippsland and the southwest have caused some problems as growers have struggled to finish sowing. Many paddocks will not be sown this autumn/ winter due to the wet conditions. Most growers have the option of sowing crops such as barley, canola and peas in the spring.
