Milking the Weather - December 2010 Edition
Summer preparation
by Greg O’Brien DPI Ellinbank and Tom Farran, DPI Tatura
Seasonal Outlook
There are positive signs for the coming three months. La Niña conditions are likely to continue into early 2010 and global models surveyed by the Fast Break newsletter indicate wetter conditions for summer.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s three month outlook there is a 75 per cent chance of receiving at least 79 mm for Warrnambool, 131 mm for Leongatha, 37 mm for Cohuna and 110 mm for Mitta Mitta. Good summer rainfall is useful for perennial pastures and building up sub soil moisture for annual crops and pastures. However, summer rain can cause weed problems, so monitoring and planning will be needed to best deal with these.
The three month outlook (December—February) favours warmer daytime and night time temperatures over all of Victoria (see below). The pattern of seasonal temperature probabilities across Australia is a result of recent warm conditions in the Indian Ocean as well as cool conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean associated with the current La Niña. Higher temperatures can have a negative affect on pasture and crop growth for most crops and pastures but will help increase growth rates in millet, sorghum and maize crops.
At present soil moisture on most dairy farms across the state is good, providing valuable reserves for supporting growth into summer.
A positive outlook doesn’t guarantee favourable growing conditions.
On most Victorian dairy farms, this has been the best season for a long time. Rainfall has been average to above average in most areas, resulting in good pasture growth, successful early establishment of crops and improved irrigation water availability.
For most, it is a matter of cashing in on a good season.
Feed Portfolio
There are seasonal opportunities to fine-tune the dairy feed portfolio. The dairy feed portfolio is the mix of feeds that make up the herds requirements. This season, most farm crops and pastures have yielded well and enabled plenty of home grown fodder to be conserved. For many, this means home grown fodder will make up a larger component of the feed portfolio than it has for a number of years.
Pasture
Pasture production has been strong in most regions due to regular spring rains. Therefore, direct grazed pasture should be contributing a larger portion of the herds feed portfolio. If managed well, low cost pasture will help to minimise the overall cost of feed supplied to the herd this season. With good irrigation availability and potentially good summer rains in many districts, there are likely to be opportunities to use nitrogen profitably this summer on many farms.
Conserved Feed
Conserved fodder yield and quality is variable across the state. Some areas have been too wet and others cooler than normal. For these districts, silage harvest was late but this may be compensated for by an extended spring. It’s likely that conserved fodder reserves will be in reasonable supply on many farms.
Quality may be slightly lower if rain affected or if pastures matured due to harvesting delays caused by wet spring weather. In this case, there may be a need for some high quality supplements to balance the diet when conserved feed is fed back. With luck, this may be grazed pasture or crops if summer growing conditions are favourable.
Crops
To date, spring sown crops have received adequate rainfall for establishment. With good soil reserves and/or irrigation water availability, conditions are in favour of good yields. High yields keep the cost per unit of feed down, impacting favourably on the bottom line, provided quality isn’t compromised.
Look for opportunities to keep yield and quality up by monitoring pests and diseases, timing irrigation to optimise growth, using nitrogen strategically where soil moisture is adequate for a profitable response, and using effluent strategically to support crop yields.
It is important to have a good plan for feeding crops. Aim to have a consistent diet to optimise rumen function and introduce supplements gradually (daily feeding levels of crop, grain and silage will vary greatly over summer months on most farms). It is also important not to be caught with too much crop at any point as this can result in feed quality dropping and/or wastage occurring. Work out when you need to start feeding each crop and at what rate per day. Alter the feeding rate as you get a better picture of yield. If you have a lot of crop, you may need to start grazing before the crop is at its optimum yield to ensure it is not too mature by the end of grazing.
Purchased concentrates and fodder
Generally speaking, the purchased feed component of the feed portfolio should be much smaller this season. The main decision for farmers will be the quality of the purchased feed. At this stage it is looking like average to poor quality fodder will be readily available to purchase and at fairly low prices compared to recent years. However low quality fodder may have a very limited fit in most farms feed portfolio this year. Therefore, the financial return made from the low quality fodder may prove it to be a very expensive feed in the end. For this reason the main decision on many farms this season will be if they should use concentrates (grain/pellets) or high quality fodder like lucerne, vetch or other legumes.
This decision should be made with a couple of key principles in mind; diet balance and value for money. While at this stage grain or pellet prices are looking likely to be around the $100 tonne higher than good quality fodder, by the time you account for higher wastage lower dry matter content and less energy from fodder, the concentrate may be better value for money if the diet balance is correct. In addition, many diets will consist of grass and plenty of conserved fodder this year, so where fibre may be limiting production, grain supplements will be a good supplement to balance the diet and help cows’ production potential. This balance will however vary on different farms, and if you are unsure then it would be wise to seek help from a trusted source.
Often there is an opportunity to purchase grain and hay direct from the paddock at a discount price at this time of year. There is likely to be a lot of weather damaged feed on the market, so be sure you know the quality of the feed you are purchasing. The photo of mouldy hay shows an obvious sign of damage but a feed analysis to determine actual quality is still important for calculating value for money and for diet formulation.
Follow the Dairy Australia “Grain and Hay Reports” to help fine tune your purchasing strategies at www.dairyaustralia.com.au.
Irrigators
The recent run of dry years and low water allocations have meant that many farmers in the northern irrigation region (NIR) have turned their forage systems away from a traditional perennial pasture base system and moved to annual pastures and crops. This change has been in response to the shortage and high costs of irrigation water as well as continued dry conditions.
This season farmers have finally experienced a wet winter and a good spring with allocations reaching 100 per cent. So it looks likely that most farmers will have enough water to irrigate their annuals this spring and next autumn, with enough water to also irrigate some perennial pasture.
These factors suggest that farmers have had more irrigation water available for use this spring, which leads to the question: “What should I do with my remaining water?” Most people seem to agree that the best use of your water is to use it on good healthy dense stands of crops and pastures in the autumn and spring, and good stands of perennial pastures. So it is essential to carryout a water budget first, to estimate how much water you will need for any crops and pastures in the spring/autumn period and perennial pastures, so that the amount of water left over can be determined.
There are a number of options available for surplus irrigation water and it is essential to choose an option that will suit your system and situation. Three potential options to consider are:
Trading it on the temporary market
The attractiveness of this option will vary depending on a number of factors; with generally the most important being what price you will receive for it. At the time of writing this article, water is trading for around $40 ML on the Goulburn system (source: watermove.com.au). Buying at this price, water would nearly always provide a more cost effective feed source compared to purchased feeds such as hay or grain at current prices, provided the water can be used well and a good diet balance can be maintained. For most to consider selling water at this price it would only be for reasons such as to improve cash flow.
Carrying water over
This is a strategy that has rapidly been gaining popularity in the dairy industry since it became available a couple of seasons ago. It has been a good security policy to make sure that you can capture the peak spring growth period, without having to rely on getting an early allocation. Recent changes to the carryover rules mean that you won’t lose your carryover water unless the major dam on your irrigation system spills. This has greatly reduced the risk of losing carryover water. Also in the past carryover wouldn’t be delivered in some areas until enough inflow had been received to run the channel systems. However, through changes to the reserve policy on the Goulburn system, enough water has now been put aside to run the system which guarantees that next season’s carryover water can be delivered from the 15th August 2011.
The down side to carryover water is that it comes at a financial cost, and you also lose five per cent to evaporation and seepage.
Summer crops
Many farmers are considering growing summer crops this year due to having more water than their current systems can use and the low price for temporary water. However the window for sowing summer crops is nearly over now. There are many advantages and disadvantages with growing summer crops and these include:
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It is important for everybody to work out what it will cost them to grow a summer crop, as cost will vary from farm to farm.
When deciding what to do with your remaining water it is important that you consider how each option will fit in with your current system and circumstances. There are a number of different options available and it is important that you do your own sums and seek more specific advice for your own situation.
