Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria
Report: 106
9 December 2010
Some crops in North Central Victoria experienced flooding during November (Source: D. Grey)
Environmental Indicators
Weather
Rainfall http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/index.shtml
Monthly rainfall anomalies were mixed across the state with some areas recording average rainfall while others had their wettest November ever. Compared to previous Novembers, rainfall totals in the northwest of the state (the North and South Mallee districts) were mostly very much above average. In the southwest of the state, rainfall totals were generally above average. It was slightly drier along the southwest coast with the West Coast District receiving average to above average rainfall. Most stations in the North Central District either recorded their wettest November to date, or their totals were very much above average. In the Upper North and Lower Northeast districts, all stations were wetter than usual and many recorded their wettest November to date. In the east of the state, Gippsland stations generally reported average rainfall (Bureau of Meteorology, 1 December).
Temperature http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/index.shtmlAverage maximum temperatures anomalies ranged from -2.3 °C in western parts (Horsham Aerodrome) to +2.6 °C in eastern parts (Point Hicks) of the state. Average daytime temperatures were cooler than usual in the northwest and average to above average for much of the state. In the Gippsland region, average maximum temperatures in the East and West Gippsland districts were average to very much above average. Average minimum temperatures were mostly warmer than usual but ranged from -0.4 °C in the southwest (Colac) up to 3.3°C in the northeast (DPI Rutherglen).
Seasonal outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/
The December to February outlook for rainfall suggests drier than average conditions are more likely across western Victoria. In central and eastern Victoria, the outlook is neutral meaning that the chance of a wetter than average December quarter are about as likely as the chance of below average conditions in these areas (Bureau of Meteorology, 23 November). The latest (22 November) 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value is +14. The SOI has been consistently positive since early April (Bureau of Meteorology, 24 November).
National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology
Figure 1. Victorian rainfall totals, October 2010
Figure 2. Victorian rainfall percentages, October 2010
Figure 3. Victorian rainfall deciles, October 2010
Figure 4. Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November - January 2010
Water storages
Goulburn-Murray Water (G-MW) http://www.g-mwater.com.au/
Goulburn-Murray Water (G-MW) has announced that all northern Victorian systems now have allocations of at least 100% of high reliability water shares (HRWS). The allocations in the Goulburn and Loddon systems have both increased from 85% HRWS to 100% HRWS. The allocation of low reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Campaspe system has increased from 20% LRWS to 52% LRWS, and is in addition to 100% HRWS. The Broken system has 100% HRWS and 100% LRWS, which is an increase of 69% LRWS (GMW, 15 November).
Further information on the breakdown of water in store for all systems can be found at
(http://www.g-mwater.com.au/downloads/Water_Balance/20101101_ALLOCATION_WATER_BALANCE_DIAGRAM.pdf)
The 2010/11 season allocation for customers in the Macalister Irrigation District is 90% of HRWS (19 August 2010). In the Bacchus Marsh Irrigation District, the seasonal allocation is 100% HRWS (SRW, 30 November). Allocation in the Werribee Irrigation District is 85% HRWS (SRW, 16 November).
Table 2: Storage levels
| Storage | Change in last month | Capacity week ending 8/11/10 |
|---|---|---|
| Goulburn Basin | 3% | 70% |
| Broken Basin | 0% | 10% |
| Campaspe Basin | 23% | 98% |
| Loddon Basin | 5% | 101% |
| Upper Murray Basin | 3% | 74% |
| Ovens Basin | 2% | 79% |
| Thomson/ LaTrobe Basin | 2% | 52% |
| Werribee Basin | 26% | 76% |
| Glenelg/ Wimmera Basin | 4% | 33% |
| Maribyrnong | 19% | 34% |
| Barwon Storage | -2% | 82% |
Source: http://www.fishvictoria.com/pnews/water_levels.php
Social Indicators
DPI Drought Hotline
The DPI / DSE Customer Service Centre received 15 drought related contacts for November 2010 compared with 16 for October. Enquiries were from the Interstate (5), North East (3), Port Phillip (3) North West (3), Gippsland (1) and unknown (1).
The major queries to the Customer Service Centre are listed below.
| FAQ’s used to answer customer enquiries | Total |
|---|---|
| Municipal Rates Subsidy | 6 |
| Drought Feeding and Management | 3 |
| Drought Apprenticeship Bonus | 2 |
Other queries made up the remainder of the calls
Drought financial assistance
As at 27 November 2010, Rural Finance reported that 16,445 applications for the Exceptional Circumstances Interest Rate Subsidy for primary producers have been approved. The total value of the subsidies approved is $493.6 million with an average subsidy of $30,003.
Economic Indicators
Commodity prices and movements
Table 3: Commodity prices and movements
| Commodity prices | Week ending 6 December | Week ending 29 November | October 2010 | November 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat APW pool 1 | 256* | 271* | 271 | 199 |
| Malting barley 1 | 310 | 277 | 277 | n/a |
| Yearling steers (C3 180-220 kg) 2 | 357 | 356 | 348 | 303 |
| Lambs (16-20 kg) 2 | 486 | 496 | 462 | 390 |
| Old pasture hay (Bairnsdale $/t) 2 | 65 | 65 | 75 | 70 |
| Temporary water (Greater Goulburn $/ML) 3 | 26.50 | 31.27 | 48 | 166 |
| Grains are Portland cash price (except for APW pool) | Sources: | 1 Weekly Times |
| *Prices for Melbourne (as Portland n/a these dates). | 2 Stock and Land | |
| Stock prices are ¢/kg cwt | 3www.watermove.com.au |
Regional Reports
Mallee
November was wet in the Mallee, with above average rainfall in most areas. Concern is mounting over grain quality due to rain damage. Grain is becoming discoloured and some is beginning to sprout. Grain harvest has progressed slowly and is generally less than 20% finished. There has been a large germination of summer weeds in the region.
Wimmera
Growing season rainfall deciles range from 4 (Nhill) to 9 (Warracknabeal). The wet weather is unusual for this time of year. Large rainfall events and localised storm cells with rainfall of up to 100mm have occurred in places. Barley crops are almost ready for harvest. Growers are waiting for some hot weather to bring the moisture content of the grain down. Rainfall at this stage could impact on grain quality if conditions do not become drier. Yield is less likely to be impacted upon, but hail damage has occurred in isolated patches. Heavy rain will cause lentil crops to fall over, making harvesting very difficult.
North Central
Good rains over the winter and spring have resulted in very good pasture and crop growth. However the very late spring rains of 100 to 180mm have resulted in significant damage to crops. Damage has been caused by flooding on the Loddon and Avoca River flood plains. The heavy late spring rains have also resulted in downgrading of grain quality and some complete crop loss due to flooding. Rain has also caused damage to hay. Apple crops in the Harcourt area have suffered hail damage.
Northern Irrigation
Frequent rainfall events in late November have caused issues for farmers trying to conserve hay and the start of grain harvest. Barley harvest has started 7 -10 days later than usual and about 3 weeks later than last season. Yields from dry land crops have been well above average. Late rain has delayed harvest and quality is beginning to decline as a result of weather damage and lodging. Green weeds are coming through some crops adding to harvesting difficulties and potentially downgrading quality. Quite a few irrigated crops have suffered from lodging. There has been some significant fruit splitting as a result of rain in early cherry varieties. Most farms have plenty of paddock feed available to them, although quality is now declining due to the rain and warmer weather
North East
Rain continued across the North East in November, which was very positive for farmers who weren’t making hay or harvesting crops. Very little grain has been harvested across the region. Harvesting of canola started in late November. The canola that has been harvested to date has had good oil yields. It is too early to determine the impact the rain has had on the wheat crop, with the crops still drying down. Hot dry weather is needed so harvest can begin. There is an abundance of paddock feed across the region. The wet spring has filled farm storages in some areas testing overflows for the first time in many years.
East Gippsland
There were good rains across region for November. Lake Glenmaggie spilled this month. There is increased disease pressure on crops due to wet, warm conditions. Pasture cover is good consisting of green feed with annual species going to head. Fodder is being conserved as hay and silage with yields higher than recent seasons.
West and South Gippsland
Some warmer weather finally arrived in November to help dry soils out. Some districts are still wetter than ideal, delaying harvesting. The rainfall has made it a difficult season for silage and hay making with poor drying conditions and a general reduction in the quality of many crops. The humid conditions experienced throughout spring have led to more fungal diseases in fruit trees and vegetable crops. Fodder conservation is in full swing after a late start due to cool and overcast conditions in early spring. Yields are likely to be high but quality may be mixed. Generally most water storages are in excellent shape for the coming summer.
Port Phillip
Rain has affected berry and cherry harvests with fruit spoilt and split. There is a reasonable amount of low quality paddock feed, such as volunteer grasses. Farm dams have had a flush of new water causing some sediment issues. There is concern regarding high risk of shot grain and possible locust impact.
South West
Crops continued to grow well during November in the southern parts of the region. The wetter conditions during the last week of the month interrupted windrowing of canola. Most other crops are still green and not yet at a stage where rainfall would adversely affect the quality or quantity of grain harvested. Some crops have suffered from moisture related disease outbreaks. Most of the region is experiencing excellent conditions for pasture growth. Rainfall and milder conditions have resulted in a bulk of green feed. Farmers are well into hay making to increase their fodder reserves
DPI response
Drought related activities held this month
Gippsland
-
11 November – Rawson – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (second year program). 11 attended.
Local workshops planned
North East
- 1 December – Wooragee – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (second year program).
- 2 December – Beechworth – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program).
Media and Communication
Media headlines
Weather
- Rain a grain threat Sunraysia Daily 12/11 – Farmers’ dreams could be crushed if forecast downpours come to fruition.
- Vineyard owners can’t whine now Geelong Advertisor 17/11 – Intense rain has brought Geelong’s vineyards back to life after enduring years of drought.
- Storms near, more needed Herald Sun 24/11 – Despite another drenching on the way, Victoria is still at least three years away from recovering from drought, according to one expert.
Farming and agriculture
- Conditions help profits Country News 8/11 – Improved seasonal and market conditions in 2009-10 have combined to lift farm profitability among livestock producers and wool growers across most of Victoria.
- Dry drives gains Country News 15/11 – Sustained periods of drought have driven some dramatic changes to production systems on many Australian dairy farms.
- Rain dampens farmers’ hopes Australian Financial Review 26/11 – Farmers along the eastern seaboard face a potential $250 million hit to their earnings from this year’s winter crops as persistent rain severely affects the quality of one of Australia’s key agricultural exports.
Water
-
Irrigation allocations of 100pc is terrific news Stock & Land 18/11 – They’ve been waiting 10 long years for this moment. And after several dry seasons, farmers are now rejoicing after it was announced all Northern Victorian systems would receive 100 per cent of their irrigation allocations this week.
Compiled & edited by Angie Grills, and proofed by Manager, Natural Disasters & Emergencies..
