Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria
Report: 101
8 July 2010
Environmental Indicators
 |
| June conditions were good for pastures in North Central Victoria. (Source: C Balmer) |
Weather
Rainfall http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/index.shtml
Total rainfall for the month was generally slightly less than average. Rainfall was above average in central Victoria (Bureau of Meteorology, 1 July).
Temperature http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/index.shtml
Overnight minimum temperatures were close to average. Daytime maximum temperatures at most localities were also close to average (Bureau of Meteorology, 1 July).
Seasonal outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/
Across Victoria, the chances of exceeding the median July to September rainfall are between 40 and 55%.
Most leading climate models indicate further cooling of the equatorial Pacific during the coming months, with the possible development of La Niña conditions by late winter or spring. The SOI is approximately +5 for the 30 days ending 20th June. (Bureau of Meteorology, 23 June).
National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology
Figure 1. Victorian rainfall totals, June 2010
Figure 2. Victorian rainfall percentages, June 2010
Figure3. Victorian rainfall deciles, June 2010
Figure 4. Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July to September 2010
Water storages
Goulburn-Murray Water (G-MW) http://www.g-mwater.com.au/
Goulburn-Murray Water announced on July 1 that all systems have zero allocations. This is the fourth consecutive year that all systems have started the new water year without an allocation. While storages are holding more water than this time last year, a large portion of the water is held as private carryover. Table 1 details the volume of water currently allocated (carryover and current season allocation) but not delivered in each system as at 1/4/2010. This volume of water is available for use or to trade.
Table 1: Water resources allocated but not delivered as at 1 April 2010
Table 1: Water resources allocated but not delivered as at 1 April 2010
| System | Volume allocated, but not delivered (GL) | Volume expressed as % High Reliability Water Shares (HRWS) |
|---|---|---|
| Murray | 492.0 | 42% |
| Goulburn | 322.5 | 33% |
| Broken | 4.1 | 23% |
| Campaspe | 1.1 | 3% |
| Loddon | 0.9 | 4% |
| Bullarook | 0.1 | 16% |
Further information on the breakdown of water in store for both the Murray and Goulburn can be found at
(http://www.g-mwater.com.au/downloads/Water_Balance/20100701_WATER_BALANCE_DIAGRAM_FOR_ALL.pdf)
The shortfalls to making an allocation are lower than what they were 12 months ago, indicating that May and June inflows have been better than those experienced last year.
Table 2 indicates that both the Goulburn and Murray irrigation systems will start the irrigation season on August 15th with allocations, even under dry inflow scenarios. An opening allocation will mean that carryover water will be fully available to irrigators.
Table 2: Outlook for 16 August 2010 Seasonal Allocations (Percentage of high-reliability water share)
| Inflow Conditions | Murray | Broken | Goulburn | Campaspe | Loddon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wet | 33% | 31% | 52% | 57% | 100% |
| Average | 15% | 0% | 36% | 0% | 0% |
| Dry | 2% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% |
G-MW in its role as Resource Manager, has declared that the probability of spill this season at Lake Eildon, Dartmouth Reservoir and Lake Eppalock is low. G-MW has advised that this declaration means that carryover water currently held in Spillable Water Accounts would be made available in Allocation Bank Accounts effective with this announcement (G-MW, 1 July).
Southern Rural Water (SRW) http://www.srw.com.au/
The opening allocation for the 2010/11 season for customers in the Macalister Irrigation District is 55% of HRWS (SRW, 1 July). In the Werribee Irrigation District and Bacchus Marsh Irrigation District, the seasonal allocation is 6% HRWS (SRW, 1 July).
Table 3: Storage levels
| Storage | Change in last month | Capacity week ending 28/06/10 | Storage | Change in last month | Capacity week ending 28/06/10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goulburn Basin | 2% | 28% | Thomson/ LaTrobe Basin | 3% | 34% |
| Broken Basin | 0% | 2% | Werribee Basin | 0% | 10% |
| Loddon Basin | 0% | 19% | Glenelg/ Wimmera Basin | 0% | 10% |
| Upper Murray Basin | 3% | 31% | Maribyrnong | 0% | 4% |
| Ovens Basin | 16% | 76% | Barwon Storage | 3% | 41% |
Source: http://www.fishvictoria.com/pnews/water_levels.php
Social Indicators
DPI Drought Hotline
The DPI / DSE Customer Service Centre received 54 drought related contacts for June 2010 compared with 63 for May. Enquiries were from the North West (18), North East (14), Port Phillip (8), South West (6), Gippsland (2) interstate (3), unknown (2) and Northern Irrigation (1).
The major queries to the Customer Service Centre are listed below.
| FAQ’s used to answer customer enquiries | Total |
|---|---|
| Farm Improvement Grants | 32 |
| Interest Rate Subsidies | 9 |
| Municipal Rates Subsidy | 4 |
| A Step Ahead DVD | 2 |
Other queries made up the remainder of the calls
Drought financial assistance
As at 26 June 2010, Rural Finance reported that 15,971 applications for the Exceptional Circumstances Interest Rate Subsidy for primary producers have been approved. The total value of the subsidies approved is $478.6 million with an average subsidy of $29,828.
Victorian Government Drought Support
Programs announced in the Victorian Government 2009 drought assistance package (22 October 2009) and delivered by DPI, such as the Municipal Rates Subsidy, Drought Apprenticeship Retention Bonus, Farm Improvement Grants, Drought Extension and Drought Communications finished on the 30 June 2010.
As at the 30 June 2010, a total of $7.41 million in Municipal Rate Subsidies was paid to EC relief payment (ECRP) recipients across 57 Shire and Rural City Councils. Councils have been paid $443,356 to administer the delivery of this additional drought assistance on behalf of the state government.
As at the 1 July 2010, a total of $805,500 in Drought Apprenticeship Retention Bonuses (DARB IV) has been paid to Victorian businesses to support 1074 apprentices in the 2009-10 financial years.
As at 26 June 2010, Rural Finance has paid $963,329 in Farm Improvement Grants to 676 applicants on behalf of the State Government. For Grant 1 (Northern Region ECRP Irrigators), 358 applications have been approved with an average grant value of $1,934. For Grant 2 (all other farm businesses receiving ECRPs) 431 applications have been approved with an average grant value of $975.
Economic Indicators
Production figures and forecasts
Beef -Southern Australia (http://abare.gov.au/publications_html/livestock/livestock_10/beef_10_1.pdf)
An increased turn-off of cows during 2008–09 is expected to reduce the number of cows joined in 2009–10. Improved conditions throughout much of southern Australia since November 2009 are expected to encourage many producers to reduce turn-off and increase cattle purchases to start rebuilding cattle numbers. (ABARE Australian beef: financial performance of beef cattle producing farms, 2007-08 to 2009-10, June 2010).
Lamb (http://abare.gov.au/publications_html/livestock/livestock_10/lamb_10_1.pdf)
The greater focus on lamb meat production has resulted in the number of lambs slaughtered in Australia increasing by 30 per cent between 1999-2009, despite sheep numbers falling by 37 per cent during this period. The increase in the number of lambs slaughtered, combined with a 6 per cent increase in average slaughter weights has led to total lamb meat production rising by 37 per cent since 1999. Around 80 per cent of the additional meat produced was exported (ABARE Australian lamb: financial performance of slaughter lamb producing farms, 2007-08 to 2009-10, May 2010).
Commodity prices and movements
Table 4: Commodity prices and movements
| Commodity prices | Week ending 5 July 2010 | Week ending 28 June 2010 | May 2010 | July 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat APW pool 1 | 195 | 195 | 195 | 300 |
| Malting barley 1 | 203 | 203 | 199 | 260 |
| Yearling steers (C3 180-220 kg) 2 | 350 | 332 | 349 | 353 |
| Lambs (16-20 kg) 2 | 523 | 537 | 488 | 469 |
| Old pasture hay (Bairnsdale $/t) 2 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 150 |
| Temporary water (Greater Goulburn $/ML) 3 | n/a | n/a | 85 | n/a |
| Sources: | 1 Weekly Times |
| 2 Stock and Land | |
| 3 www.watermove.com.au |
Grains are Portland cash price (except for APW pool)
* Prices for Melbourne (as Portland n/a these dates).
Stock prices are ¢/kg cwt
Regional Reports
Mallee
Due to locusts there has been a delayed start to sowing for many, however there has been adequate moisture in most areas and favourable temperatures. Mice continue to cause issues in-crop. There are adequate amounts of stock feed for this time of the season.
Wimmera
Rainfall was patchy but drier than average for most locations across the Wimmera. Cool and frosty mornings slowed crop development but this is normal for this time of year. A drier month meant that sowing was finished in relatively good time. Canola emergence has been patchy. Paddock feed and fodder reserves are good. Livestock prices have been excellent.
North Central
Good rains of between 60 and 85 mm occurred in the southern parts of the region including Bendigo, Maryborough and Redesdale. Some more northern parts of the district such as Wedderburn and Charlton are continuing to experience a dry season. Sowing of winter grain crops is finished. Some northern areas were sown late as a result of missing out on the generally widespread autumn rains. The summer storms have put moisture into the ground that will be used by winter crops. Most farms have adequate amounts of green paddock feed. However, in some cases lambing ewes are being fed grain because green paddock feed is still short. Both grain and hay supplies are good. Storms over the last 5 months have part filled many dams that have been low in water for years.
Northern Irrigation
Conditions for most of the region are good. Most crops and pastures are growing well. Some late irrigated cereals are showing symptoms of water logging, particularly where crops received a late irrigation in May. Many cereals are looking quite good, having excellent growth in May before the cooler June conditions set in. Most farms have feed available to graze. Hay and grain supplies are good.
North East
Most of the North East had adequate rain in June. Cropping areas have generally received below average rainfall. Frosts have slowed crop growth but they still look good. There are isolated patches of waterlogged crops in low lying areas around Picola and Euroa. Paddock feed varies across the region. This has been influenced by stocking rates, soil fertility and the timeliness and quantity of rain fall. Many producers are carrying lower than normal stocking rates. There are good fodder reserves across the North East. On-farm surface water supplies would be generally 25 to 100% capacity across the region. There are still some areas north of the Hume Freeway (e.g.: Boralma, Boorhaman, Violet Town) where surface runoff has not been adequate to fill all farm dams.
East Gippsland
Rainfall was variable across the region in June. There is short green feed on most farms. There are reasonable fodder reserves across the region. Prices are rising for hay and grain. Some farms are very low on stock water due to virtually no run off rain since last spring.
West and South Gippsland
There has been good rainfall in the region in recent months. Some pugging of paddocks is occurring due to excess soil moisture. There is good green feed available in paddocks. There are adequate hay reserves on most farms and northern hay is readily available. Silage that was left over from the summer -autumn period is now beginning to be used due to the slowing of pasture growth. Most farms dams are starting to fill up with extra runoff.
Port Phillip
There were good rains across the region in June. Cropping farmers believe there is a potential for a good season in the region. Water availability for irrigation in the west of the region is low. Paddock feed is reasonable in the region. Winter grasses are coming through but it is likely that it is of low feed quality. There is concern about weed spread if some of these paddocks are cut for hay. Stocking rates remain low. Irrigated farmers in the east of the region and the Yarra Valley have had reasonable rainfall and should start the season with a good level of water in farm dams.
South West
Crops across the region are all sown and growth is good, depending on sowing time. The rain in the last week of June will assist with improving soil moisture. Paddock feed is diminishing as winter sets in, although some growth has been evident in some parts of the region. Fodder reserves remain in good supply due to lack of reliance on feeding through autumn and southern dairy farmers requiring less fodder to feed out. On farm water is adequate in quality and quantity.
DPI response
Drought related activities held this month
Mallee
- 29 June – Mildura – Weather drivers and rainfall predictions, Mildura seminar for growers and service providers.
- 22/30 June Weather and climate talk to other groups including VFF & Nurseryman’s Association.
- 17 June – Our Farming Future – Pathways to Future Farming “Farmers Adapting to Variable Climate – Dale Grey”. 30 attended.
Northern Irrigation
- June – Shepparton – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program).
Gippsland
- 22 June – Yarram – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program).15 attended.
South West
- 22/23 June – Heathmere – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (first year program).19 attended.
- 10 June – Camperdown – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program). 13 attended.
Local workshops planned
Mallee
- 30 July – Quambatook – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program).
Wimmera
- 26/27 July – Goroke/Minimay – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (first year program).
- 21 July – Minyip – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (second year program).
Northern Irrigation
- 21 July – Euroa – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program).
Gippsland
- 1/2 July – Bunyip – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (first year program).
South West
- 15/16 July – Nullawarre – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (first year program).
- 21 July – Willaura – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (second year program).
Media and Communication
Media headlines
Weather
- Hopes up for a good season Riverine Herald 7/6 – Recent rainfall has left district farmers with a renewed optimism for the coming season.
Farming and agriculture
- Profits down for many South West farms Portland Observer 4/6 – Increasing costs and reduced prices for products including wool and fodder have affected the bottom line of farms in the south-west.
- Some locusts are still hanging around Sunraysia Daily 5/6 – Predictions of the demise of the last of autumn’s locust plagues with the onset of cold frosty mornings seem to have been overly optimistic.
- Victorian farmers making hay Herald Sun 8/6 – Good autumn rains and higher milk prices have put broad smiles on the faces of Victorian farmers who are enjoying better times than those in other states.
- Export sheep fetching record high prices Portland Observer 9/6 – A combination of factors has pushed the forward price of live sheep exported to the Middle East to above $100 a head, assuring a bright future for the trade at the Port of Portland.
- Top of the season Weekly Times 9/6 – Barley prices have risen to their highest price this season as the fall in the Australian dollar hits home.
- $43m to fend off locust plague The Age 12/6 – Thousands of Victorian farmers will be eligible for chemical rebates as the state prepares for the worst locust plague in 75 years.
- Good start for winter crops Sunraysia Daily 23/6 – The opening of the winter cropping season in the eastern states is one of the best for several years, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics.
- World wheat shortage boon for Aussies Warrnambool Standard 26/6 – Australian wheat farmers could be in for bumper prices this year as crops in Canada are expected to fall well short of usual volumes.
- Global dairy supply tipped to rise and prices to ease Ballarat Courier 30/6 – While global dairy prices are expected to ease from current highs, the drop is unlikely to happen quickly or occur until later this year according to Rabobank’s Dairy Quarterly Report.
- Apple imports the core of concerns Bendigo Advertiser 1/7 – The federal government has approved the importation of fresh apples from China.
- Drastic action to battle perfect storm for locusts The Age 2/7 – Government authorities will have the power to enter Victorian farms and spray locusts even without a farmer’s permission, under measures to combat a “perfect storm” of conditions now threatening south-eastern Australia.
Water
- Farm water projects assessed Numurkah Leader 23/6 – Following the receipt of Expressions of Intent (EOIs) for the regions $25.8 million Farm Water Program, projects have been selected for inclusion into a business plan to be submitted to the Australian Government for assessment.
- Carryover level highest ever Shepparton News 6/7 – Water levels in northern Victoria’s major storages point to a record carryover entitlement for farmers this season.
Drought financial assistance
- Centrelink help still available for farmers affected by drought Ballarat Courier 2/6 – Drought help is still available for farmers across the Ballarat district, despite the end of Exceptional Circumstances support recently.
Compiled & edited by Angie Grills, and proofed by Drought Operations & Response Managers.
