Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria
Report: 100
4 June 2010
Pasture irrigation in early May, prior to the end of the irrigation season in Northern Victoria.
(Source: J Leeman)
Environmental Indicators
Weather
Rainfall http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/index.shtml
Most areas across the State received close to average rainfall this month, with rainfall slightly above average in far northern parts of the Mallee and Northern Country and east Gippsland. Parts of the Western and Wimmera districts, as well as areas to the northeast of Melbourne, received totals that were below average (Bureau of Meteorology, 1 June).
Temperature http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/index.shtml
Maximum temperatures were close to, or slightly above average across the state, whilst minimum temperatures were close to average (Bureau of Meteorology, 1 June).
Seasonal outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/
The outlook for winter rainfall (June to August) shows a drier than normal season is favoured over much of South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria as well as far southern and western NSW. The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for winter are below 40% over much of South Australia, Victoria and south-western NSW. The probabilities drop to between 25 and 30% over south-western Victoria and northern Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology, 25 May).
Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness over the Pacific are all at levels considered typical of neutral conditions (i.e. neither El Niño nor La Niña). The latest 30-day SOI value (24 May) is +5.7 (Bureau of Meteorology, 26 May)
| Figure 1. Victorian rainfall totals, May 2010 National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology |
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| Figure 2. Victorian rainfall percentages, May 2010 National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology |
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| Figure3. Victorian rainfall deciles, May 2010 National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology |
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| Figure 4. Chance of exceeding the median rainfall between June and August 2010 National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology |
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Water storages
Goulburn-Murray Water (G-MW) http://www.g-mwater.com.au/
Goulburn-Murray Water has updated the outlook for 2010/11 seasonal allocations. The outlooks for the 2010/11 season are based on the inflows observed to follow the conditions experienced this autumn. All systems are expected to receive zero allocations on 1 July 2010 under dry, average or wet inflow conditions. Dry inflow conditions should provide low allocations in the Murray and Goulburn systems on Monday 16 August 2010. An announcement of non-zero allocations would mean that the channel distribution network in these systems would be operational for the full season and carryover water would be available for use. The Murray, Goulburn and Broken systems are expected to have allocations under average inflow conditions (G-MW, 17 May).
Table 1: Outlook for 16 August 2010 Seasonal Allocations (Percentage of high-reliability water share)
| Inflow Conditions | Murray | Broken | Goulburn | Campaspe | Loddon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wet | 60% | 73% | 65% | 100% | 100% |
| Average | 31% | 8% | 37% | 0% | 0% |
| Dry | 23% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
Southern Rural Water (SRW) http://www.srw.com.au/
The 2009/10 season allocation for customers in the Macalister Irrigation District is currently 100% of HRWS and 45% of Low Reliability Water Shares (LRWS). In the Werribee Irrigation District and Bacchus Marsh Irrigation District, the seasonal allocation is 14% High Reliability Water Shares (HRWS) guaranteed to 30 June 2010 (SRW, 4 May). The 2010/11 opening season allocations for these systems will be announced on the 1 July 2010.
Table 2: Storage levels
| Storage | Change in last month | Capacity week ending 1/6/10 | Storage | Change in last month | Capacity week ending 1/6/10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goulburn Basin |
1% | 26% | Thomson/ LaTrobe Basin | 0% | 31% |
| Broken Basin | 0% | 2% | Werribee Basin | 0% | 10% |
| Campaspe Basin | 1% | 11% | Glenelg/ Wimmera Basin | 0% | 10% |
| Loddon Basin | -1% | 19% | Maribyrnong | 0% | |
| Upper Murray Basin | 2% | 28% | Barwon Storage | -1% | 38% |
| Ovens Basin | -2% | 59% |
Source: http://www.fishvictoria.com/pnews/water_levels.php
Social Indicators
DPI Drought Hotline
The DPI / DSE Customer Service Centre received 63 drought related contacts for May 2010 compared with 92 for April. Enquiries were from the North West (20), Port Phillip (16), North East (10), South West (11), Gippsland (5) and unknown (1).
The major queries to the Customer Service Centre are listed below.
| FAQ’s used to answer customer enquiries | Total |
|---|---|
| Farm Decision Support Grant | 16 |
| Farm Improvement Grants | 16 |
| Interest Rate Subsidies | 6 |
| Drought Apprenticeship Retention Bonus | 4 |
Other queries made up the remainder of the calls
Drought financial assistance
As at 29 May 2010, Rural Finance reported that 15,577 applications for the Exceptional Circumstances Interest Rate Subsidy for primary producers have been approved. The total value of the subsidies approved is $469.6 million with an average subsidy of $30,145.
Victorian Government Drought Support
As at the 31 May 2010, a total of $5.52 million in Municipal Rate Subsidies was paid to EC relief payment (ECRP) recipients across 44 Shire and Rural City Councils. Councils have been paid $330,156 to administer the delivery of this additional drought assistance on behalf of the state government.
As at the 1 June 2010, a total of $805,500 in Drought Apprenticeship Retention Bonuses (DARB IV) has been paid to Victorian businesses to support 1074 apprentices in the 2009-10 financial years.
As at 29 May 2010, Rural Finance has paid $630,763 in Farm Improvement Grants to 438 applicants on behalf of the State Government. For Grant 1 (Northern Region ECRP Irrigators), 211 applications have been approved with an average grant value of $1,939. For Grant 2 (all other farm businesses receiving ECRPs) 227 applications have been approved with an average grant value of $979.
Economic Indicators
Production figures and forecasts
Victorian Grain Production http://www.new.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/crops-pastures-and-weeds/grain-crops
DPI grain production estimates as of the 20 May 2010 indicate that the area being cropped in 2010 is very similar to 2009. Wheat area is slightly up across the state, with an estimate of 1, 647,000 ha. Feed grade cereal crops (both grain and hay) areas are down including barley. The canola, lentil and faba bean area have increased. Finally, the area to vetch has greatly increased. Most vetch will be made into hay (DPI, 20 May).
Australian Winegrape Production http://www.wfa.org.au/vintage_reports.aspx Australia’s 2010 winegrape crush is estimated to be 1.53 million tonnes, a 12% decrease on the 2009 figure of
1.73 million tonnes, which in turn had fallen 5% from 2008. This means the annual crush is nearly 300,000 tonnes lower than two years ago and below the five year average of 1.68 million tonnes, bringing it to a level closer to current demand. Final intake figures by red and white wine grapes will be available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics in October 2010 (Winemakers Federation of Australia, 17 May).
Commodity prices and movements
Table 3: Commodity prices and movements
| Commodity prices | Week ending 4 June 2010 | Week ending 28 May 2010 | April 2010 | June 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat APW pool 1 Malting barley 1 |
195 203 |
195 199 |
195 205 |
300 260 |
| Yearling steers (C3 180-220 kg) 2 Lambs (16-20 kg) 2 |
352 510 |
349 488 |
355 500 |
342 477 |
| Old pasture hay (Bairnsdale $/t) 2 | 85 | 85 | 80 | 130 |
| Temporary water (Greater Goulburn $/ML) 3 | 66.50 | 85 | 80 | 400.00 |
| Grains are Portland cash price (except for APW pool) *Prices for Melbourne (as Portland n/a these dates). Stock prices are ¢/kg cwt |
Sources: | 1 Weekly Times 2 Stock and Land 3 www.watermove.com.au |
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Regional Reports
Mallee
Total rainfall to 27 May in Mildura was 35.8mm which is more than the long term average for May (25.2mm). Sowing of crops is all but complete in the north of the region. Sowing is continuing in the south and in areas where locusts had previously eaten crops. About 85% or more of the southern Mallee has been sown. After a month or more of warm and dry weather rainfall in late May has been opportune. This will allow for rapid and uniform crop emergence and will set crops up for the season ahead. The Navel crop is small in volume but consists of large individual fruit. Picking has been slowed down by rain, as fruit must be picked dry. This will give time for the market to clear stockpiled fruit. Locust hoppers sighted in Mildura indicate some hatchings have already occurred, although not in significant numbers.
Wimmera
Excellent rain (25-50 mm) was received in the north and central areas of the Wimmera. Rainfall, combined with reasonably good soil moisture, will place crops in a good position for the rest of the season. Rainfall in the west and south of the region has been lower and follow up rain will be needed soon. Crop sowing is close to 75-80% complete. Most cereals have been planted with some pulses yet to be sown.
North Central
Widespread rains of 40 to 60 mm in the last week of May, together with the earlier rains, have got the season off to a good start. Sowing of winter grain crops is finished on some farms but still underway on others. Sheep are in good condition on short green pasture. Most farms have adequate amounts of green paddock feed. However, in some cases lambing ewes are being fed grain because the green paddock feed is still short. Both grain and hay supplies are good. Storms over the last 5 months have part filled many dams that have been low in water.
Northern Irrigation
After a good start to the year, conditions started to dry out in late April and May. This meant that a lot of farmers watered a fair area of their farms just before the close of the irrigation season. With many farms receiving around 50 mm of rain in the last week of May, the areas that were irrigated recently are now very wet and may take quite sometime to dry out enough to be grazed. The dry start to May saw sowing in dryland conditions put on hold for some pastures and crops. The rain in late May will result in the final pasture and crops being sown shortly. Locusts were an issue until the end of May with damage localised in the south west of the region. Farmers that continued to irrigate until the end of the season (approximately 15 May) have good pasture growth on farm.
North East
There was very little rain across the North East during May. Some areas received no rain for up to 35 days prior to the rain in late May. The lack of rain and the frost caused many areas of the North East to brown off. Over 90% of crops are in the ground and most have emerged. There is very little dry land feed north of the Hume highway. Recent rain will allow annual grasses and weeds to germinate fully. Pasture growth has slowed in many areas of the North East with the colder temperatures and lack of rain. In some areas pastures are short which is starting to become an issue. Fodder is in good supply across the North East. In most areas farm dams now at adequate levels, the only exception is in some of the plains areas. However, even these dams are better situated than they have been for some years.
East Gippsland
Autumn conditions have been variable across the region. Some districts are experiencing a tougher season while others report a reasonable autumn with around average rainfall and mild conditions. Autumn conditions were not as cold and summer crops held on a little longer. Apple harvest is almost finished. Pastures are green in East Gippsland and most farms have a small amount of feed on offer. Fodder reserves are generally reasonable. There is plenty of fodder available from outside the district at reasonable prices. Storm bands have filled stock water dams in some areas while others have had no run off and will need a wet winter and spring to replenish dwindling supplies
West and South Gippsland
West and South Gippsland has had good rainfall. Less rainfall has been received towards the east and in the last half of the month. There appears to be adequate moisture for pasture growth to continue into winter. Paddock feed is good for this time of year. Hay reserves are holding up. Most of the silage has been fed out during autumn. There is plenty of hay available to purchase at reasonable prices. There is also plenty of local hay in storage. Some farm dams are gaining runoff. Soils are wet and therefore dams should fill during winter.
Port Phillip
Good rainfall was received in western and eastern parts of the region. There was less rainfall to the north east of Melbourne. Vegetable growers in Bacchus Marsh and Werribee are currently harvesting brassicas and will soon be planting winter crops. Rainfall during the end of May has allowed growers to save 1-2 weeks worth of irrigation.
South West
There were no significant rainfall events during the month. Conditions became drier towards the end of May with a number of frosts. Rainfall across the region particularly towards Geelong was less than average. Sowing of cereals and canola is about 60-70% completed throughout the South West. Adequate subsoil moisture has meant that crops sown early have well emerged. Areas north of Hamilton towards Balmoral have been slightly drier. Pastures were still growing during early to mid May but frosts towards the end of the month and lack of rain reduced growth. The availability of feed throughout the region has declined. Fodder reserves remain strong with supplies of grain and hay still held on farms. Dams to the north of the region are requiring runoff to improve their stock water supply. Areas to the south have plentiful water at present.
DPI response
Drought related activities held this month
Mallee
- 6 May – Mildura – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program). 4 Attended.
- 24-26 – Mildura – Weather, Drought and Agrigator display at the Horticulture Field Days
- 5 May – Mildura – Water Forum. Speakers from DSE, GMW, NSW State Water and MDBA delivered information on new water policies for 2010/11. Q&A session at the end of the forum included LMW and SA Water. Organised by DPI and IDO’s from Sunraysia horticulture organisations. 130 Attended.
Northern Irrigation
- 4 May – Shepparton – VFF Horticulture Business Sessions. Pam Strange (DPI Irymple) presenting a 1 hour session on “Weather trends and the affects on your region”.
- 5 May – Shepparton – GOTAFE Amenity Horticulture Group. Dale Gray (DPI Cobram) presenting 1.5 hour session on “Climate Drivers” and “Weather”.
- May – various locations – Dairy extension staff, acting on behalf of Murray Dairy, facilitated a series of regional priority setting forums across the northern catchment to enable farmers and services providers an opportunity to discuss current and emerging issues within the northern dairy industry. A report is soon to be released
North East
- 20 May – Beechworth – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program). 7 Attended.
- 26 May – Mansfield – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program). 13 Attended.
Port Phillip
- 21 May – Lilydale – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program). 18 Attended.
South West
- 10 May – Camperdown – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program). Changed date to 10 June.
Local workshops planned
Mallee
- 29 June – Mildura – Weather drivers and rainfall predictions, Mildura seminar for growers and service providers.
- 22 -30 June Weather and climate talk to other groups including VFF & Nurserymans Association.
- 17 June – Our Farming Future – Pathways to Future Farming “Farmers Adapting to Variable Climate – Dale Grey”
Northern Irrigation
- June – Shepparton – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program).
Gippsland
- 22 June – Yarram – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (third year program).
South West
- 22/23 June – Heathmere – Sustainable Farm Families workshop (first year program).
Media and Communication
Media releases
5 May 2010 – Start of a new era in drought support with Western Australian trial (The Hon. Tony Burke MP) http://www.daff.gov.au/.
The Rudd Government and Western Australian Government have today announced the start of a new era in drought support, with a 12 month trial of a new package of measures. The new measures will be tested in a region covering half of Western Australia, from Karratha to Esperance, from 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011. The trial represents a dramatic shift in the way governments help farmers deal with the challenges of the future from crisis management to risk management.
11 May 2010 – Drought reform trial; current support continues across Australia (The Hon. Tony Burke MP) http://www.daff.gov.au/
The 2010-11 Budget allocates $420.3 million to deliver on the Rudd Government’s commitment to continue drought support for farmers currently receiving assistance. It also allocates $18.0 million to support a 12 month trial of major new drought support measures, covering part of Western Australia.
12 May 2010 – Australian dairy market on the rise but economic uncertainty remains a concern (Dairy Australia) http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/Our-Dairy-Industry/Media-Releases---General.aspx The Australian dairy industry’s position has had a significant change for the better in 2010, with economic recovery underpinning renewed demand growth in key markets. Analysis undertaken by Dairy Australia as part of the 2010 Situation and Outlook report, released today, has revealed there has been a return to the fundamentals of the dairy market after the industry was facing a crisis in 2009, with the global economic downturn cutting milk prices, and continued dry conditions placing many farm businesses at risk.
Media headlines
Weather
- Rain nerves emerge Stock and Land 20/5 – After a summer where all the headlines were made by the massive summer wet over north-eastern Australia, a dry April and start to May have some croppers across the country beginning to get nervous regarding plantings.
Farming and agriculture
- Milk processors tip strong prices Weekly Times 5/5 – Opening milk price is the talk of the dairy industry ahead of expected announcements next month.
- Farmers count cost of locust swarms The Age 5/5 – Thick locust swarms flew across the Murray River into Victoria at the weekend, adding to the billions of the insects already in Victoria’s farming regions devastating crops and pasture.
- A slow start to the new season Stock & Land 6/5 – It is now May and there is very little new season feed now persisting on dryland farms in the Mallee and Wimmera.
- Competition hits wheat exports The Age 8/5 – Australian wheat shipments slumped in March compared with a year earlier because of competition from lower-cost grain.
- Tails of woe for growers Weekly Times 12/5 – Victorian grain growers are facing an unusual “double whammy” of potentially devastating plagues of locusts and mice.
- Confidence rising Shepparton News 13/5 – The confidence of northern Victorian dairy farmers has improved, but many are still cautious after struggling with low water allocations, poor rainfall and low milk prices, the latest Dairy Australia report says.
Water
- Forecast looks promising Country News 17/5 – Goulburn-Murray Water released its seasonal allocation outlook for 2010-11 on Monday, with good forecasts for irrigators.
- Tough Murray water plan to hit irrigators The Australian 21/5 – Federal Water Minister Penny Wong has warned that “significant cuts” to irrigator water allocations will be part of the draft Murray Darling Basin plan due for release in July.
Drought financial assistance
- Feds restore counselling Wimmera Mail Times 3/5 – Rural financial counselling is safe in the Wimmera after the Federal Government reinstated funding for the service.
- Govt to test new scheme Shepparton News 6/5 – The Federal Government will trial a drought assistance scheme that forces farmers to consider how they will meet future challenges on their land, including worsening droughts and climate change.
- Council lobbying fails Ballarat Courier 15/5 – The National Rural Advisory Council says it made a "very sound decision" to revoke Exceptional Circumstances help in south-west Victoria.
- VFF pushes for drought model Ballarat Courier 19/5 – The Victorian Farmers Federation has advocated moving away from a lines on maps approach on drought support to a model which embraces preparedness for a number of years.
Compiled & edited by Angie Grills, and proofed by Drought Operations & Response Managers.
